Why Milei won the elections in Argentina with a historic lead of 11 points over Massa

Javier Milei It devastated 21 of the 24 provinces of Argentina. In the second round on Sunday, the libertarian candidate won by more than 11 points over the Peronist Sergio Massa, who is also the current Minister of Economy. The Argentine newspaper La Nación has described the Milei phenomenon as the most extraordinary leap to power since the return of democracy 40 years ago.

Just to have an idea of ​​how extraordinary the triumph of Milei, It is worth mentioning that Freedom Advanceshis anti-establishment party, did not exist until two years ago.

LOOK: The keys to Milei’s victory: “The clearest message is that Argentine society got fed up and decided for change”

Argentina It is mired in a deep economic crisis, with annual inflation exceeding double digits and poverty rates that are increasing. That is the context in which the proposal for radical change that has been expressed Milei caught on among the citizens, who decided to turn around and punish the peronismwho has governed the country for 26 and a half of the 40 years since the return to democracy after the last military dictatorship (1976-1983).

“Today the reconstruction of Argentina begins. The model of decadence has come to an end. There is no way back. Enough of the impoverishing model of breed“, of the omnipresent State, which only benefits some while the majority of Argentines suffer, today we embrace freedom to once again be a world power,” he said. Milei, 53 years oldon Sunday night, during his first speech after confirming his overwhelming victory.

“Today the idea that the State is a loot to be distributed among politicians and their friends ends,” he continued.

“Today is a historic night, not because of us, but because one way of doing politics has ended and another begins,” he insisted. Milei.

“Today we once again embrace the ideas of freedom, the ideas of our founding fathers,” he added.

Milei He will take office on December 10 from the Peronist Alberto Fernandezwho chose not to run for re-election.

Peronism

On Sunday, it suffered the worst electoral defeat in its history.

Next, we explain the factors that were key to the triumph of Milei.

The economy

The Economist Javier Milei He is going to govern a country that registers more than 142% annual inflation and where poverty is above 40%.

Argentina must also comply in the coming months with millionaire disbursements for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the loan of 45,000 million granted in 2018, during the president’s administration Mauricio Macri.

Milei He has already announced that he will seek an agreement with the IMF and? is willing to make adjustments to public spending even above what that organization demands. This could lead to a cut in the million-dollar state subsidies for public service rates and social programs, which reach several million Argentines.

In his opinion column in the newspaper The nationjournalist Claudio Jacquelin explained on Monday that the more than 11 percentage points that he obtained Milei to Massa express the anger of a social majority with the succession of failures in recent years and the disastrous economic situation, plus the fear that a way of doing politics and governing would be rewarded or perpetuated. “Rejection and fear that everything would remain the same or aggravate the needs of society,” he indicated.

“Yesterday’s election is more the consequence of the critical situation of the present and the failures accumulated for more than a decade that a certain and convinced bet towards the future of all its voters. The rejection of what was known (and suffered) prevailed over the unknown or the horror of the unknown. An absolute change, without a network, that Milei “He interpreted and embodied it better than any of the rivals he had in this very long electoral process,” he added. Jacqueline.

For his part, the Argentine political analyst Rosendo Fraga he told BBC World that “Milei appears as an alternative where the economic and social is even worse than in the two previous opportunities (in reference to the hyperinflation of 1989 with Raúl Alfonsín and the social outbreak of 2001, when Fernando de la Rúa fell).”

So, in that context that the country lives in, the selection of Massa as a candidate for peronism It was very risky, since he has been Minister of Economy since July 2022, more than a year ago, and he is credited with much of the responsibility for the current crisis. Besides, In the campaign he was labeled as the minister of 142% inflation.

This Monday, Milei He gave several interviews to Argentine media where he indicated that controlling inflation will take between 18 and 24 months. Furthermore, he announced that his first measures will include privatizations of public companies and a profound reform of the State.

“We are going to start first with the reform of the State, to put the public accounts in cash very quickly,” he told Radio Miter.

Anti-system candidate

Javier Milei Has promised dollarize the economy, close the Central Bank to end inflation and cut public spending. Those were the axes of his campaign.

Milei He defined his speech as libertarian and anarcho-capitalist and has promised “a limited government, which strictly complies with the commitments it has made, respect for private property and free trade.”

With his constant statements against the “breed parasitic and nonsense politics [ladrona]”, Milei He convinced more than half of Argentines, a large part of them young voters.

“I am excited because the politicians’ job (scam) is over, they are going to start using dollars, and the country is going to improve much more”Nicolás Fernández, a 19-year-old student who participated in the street celebrations for the victory of Milei.

“He is the only politician, so to speak, who delivers what he promises. He already promised his salary and donated it, so that is an example,” added the young man, in reference to the promise fulfilled by Milei to raffle among his followers the salary he earns in Congress, where he has been a deputy since 2021.

Will it carry forward Milei all his promises, including the most radical ones? Javier Casabal, fixed income strategist at Adcap Grupo Financiero, told the AP that it is necessary to wait for their announcements to see “if they move more towards moderation, to know at what speed we will get rid of the peso, at what speed their recovery plan can advance. dollarization.” One of the problems in carrying out the dollarization is the lack of foreign currency in the country, economists have warned.

Furthermore, it must be taken into account that In Congress, Milei’s party has only 38 of 257 national deputies and 7 of 72 senators.so he must seek alliances and strengthen the one he already has with the center-right.

The alliance with Bullrich and Macri

After the first round on October 22, Javier Milei received the important support of Together for Change (center-right), whose candidate, Patricia Bullrich, ranked third. Bullrich joined Mauricio Macriand the three captured the so-called Acassuso Pact.

In the first roundsurprisingly Massa was 7 points ahead of Milei.

He peronist obtained 9.6 million votes, against 7.9 million Milei and 6.2 million Bullrich.

But in the Second round, Milei turned everything around, he got 14.4 million (6.5 million more) and Massa 11.4 million (only 1.8 million more).

So, the experts explain, the majority of votes from Bullrich They left without a problem Milei.

The Clarín newspaper explained the fundamental role that Macri in the endorsement of votes to Milei. He said that when the former president decided to publicly seal his support for the libertarian, he guaranteed that the votes of Together for Change would go to him.

That alliance also had a political cost for Macri. The opposition coalition of Argentina It currently has 94 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 21 in the Senate, but not all of them will continue under the former president’s guidelines.

He Acassuso Pact generated the discomfort of the Radical Civic Union and the Civic Coalition.

“At least 35 deputies will be able to join the almost automatic accompaniment of Mileibut that is not enough and we will have to negotiate with the radical opposition wing, although these types of majorities will be recalculated in each discussion,” Leandro Domínguez, director of political analysis of the Legislative Directorate foundation, told the EFE agency.