Corruption and the other challenges that Arévalo will face as president of Guatemala

After months of back-and-forth, which included a tax chase and a parliamentary attempt to block the formation of the new Congress, Bernardo Arévalo de León finally assumed the presidency of this Monday the 15th at dawn. Guatemala.

LOOK: Turbulent change of command in Guatemala: “Recovering the institutionality will be the biggest challenge for Arévalo”

What was experienced on Sunday in the Guatemalan Parliament was nothing more than a small sample of one of the biggest challenges that the new president will face, different analysts commented to El Comercio.

“That is what can be expected from now on, an irrational and illegal opposition that maintains control of the courts and a Public Ministry will continue to act with that degree of impunity. Much will depend on the leadership shown by the president-elect to counteract this pact.“Manfredo Marroquín, political analyst for the Citizen Action organization and part of Transparency International in Guatemala, commented to this newspaper on Sunday.

– A divided country –

“Last Sunday we saw a summarized version of what we predict will be the four years of Arévalo’s government. Because although he has become president with popular support, he has a very fractured Congress and in Guatemala the greatest power is in Congress”, comments Juan Diego Godoy, Guatemalan analyst and journalist specialized in politics.

Arévalo became president after defeating former presidential first lady Sandra Torres in a runoff. Because of this, the now ruling Semilla Movement has only 23 of the 160 seats held by the Guatemalan Congress.

The rest of the seats are divided between 17 parties, the main legislative force for this period being, precisely, the National Unity of Hope of Torres. However, on the same Sunday another unexpected turn took place in the chamber and led to Samuel Pérez, from the Semilla Movement, obtaining the presidency of the Board of Directors.

“Torres is a staunch enemy of Arévalo. However, in recent days a divorce was seen among its members, 21 of its 28 deputies abandoned ship on Sunday, leaving Torres with only 7 deputies and allying themselves with Arévalo. Thus, the Semilla Movement added 44 votes, that changed the entire tide of votes and allowed it to preside over the board of directors. But they are going to charge them dearly for this favor that they owe to those 21 deputies, so I would not dare say that they have the total power of Congress.”explains Godoy.

However, Arévalo will not only have the challenge of negotiating with a highly heterogeneous Congress but also of unifying a strongly divided country. “Guatemala is a conservative country that has had a string of moderate right-wing governments. Arévalo arouses concern in the upper class who fear that he is a Pedro Castillo or a Gustavo Petro. “The president will have to reconcile that sector of the population with the other sector, that of the indigenous leaders, who were his main banner in October,” Godoy points out.

– Corruption, the big problem –

Edgar Ortiz, Guatemalan constitutional lawyer and political analyst, told Trade Sunday that Arévalo is “A very conciliatory guy, with negotiation skills. He is an expert in peace building”. A quality that will be tested during his four years in office if he intends to carry out the anti-corruption agenda with which he won the runoff.

At the helm, the president finds himself in a country that has been mired in a corruption crisis for more than a decade, currently occupying position 150 out of a possible 180 in the corruption perception index prepared by Transparency International.

“During the government of Otto Pérez Molina, who resigned due to citizen pressure and was sentenced for three cases of corruption, we were in 118th place. So imagine what the government of (Alejandro) Giammattei was like”says Godoy.

Arévalo’s predecessor ended his government with 74.7% disapproval and only 7% of Guatemalans trusting him, according to the 2023 Libre Poll prepared by the local newspaper Prensa Libre. The main reason behind the terrible perception of Giammattei was the countless suspicions of corruption that surrounded him during his four years in power.

This included accusations of co-opting the judicial system and allying himself with Attorney General Consuelo Porras in exchange for not being investigated. This alliance, in addition, would have led to the obscene tax persecution suffered by Arévalo since he went to the second electoral round in 2023.

The big question that Arévalo will have to answer in this sense will be how to combat corruption when the judicial system is infiltrated by those same actors that it should persecute?

“Prosecutors and judges are needed to pursue corruption and not those who seek to combat it. There are a series of key elections that will take place during the Arévalo government: in October the Supreme Court of Justice and the Courts of Appeals are renewed. Arévalo will have a lot of influence, he could appoint incorruptible judges. That is the time to clean the system. Furthermore, in 2026 the mandate of Attorney General Consuelo Porras ends, Arévalo will have the opportunity to elect a prosecutor who will pursue corruptors for the next five years. They are two golden opportunities, but he will need power in Congress and good popularity so that the population trusts his decisions.”says Godoy.

– Other challenges for Arévalo –

Beyond that, Guatemala faces great challenges that will have to be addressed urgently. “There are quite high malnutrition figures, the government closes with 90 thousand cases of chronic acute malnutrition in children under 5 years of age. Then you have a need for infrastructure as well. In addition, Arévalo has said that he will focus on environmental and ecological issues, he has a fairly green plan”says Ortiz.

Ortiz adds to this list the extensive work he will have to recover the institutionality and places special emphasis on the urgency to renew the national infrastructure.

“The democratic setback has been so great that the simple fact of being able to rebuild that institutional fabric is a very big challenge. Then, there are other challenges in educational and health matters, they are the two great social debts and the elements that would allow Guatemala to grow economically. Third, infrastructure. We are a country with a very backward infrastructure“, he commented on Sunday to Trade.