Why does the truce fail to materialize in Gaza and what is at stake for Israel?

LOOK: The Houthis, the Red Sea terror that threatens global trade

One of the most urgent claims within Israel comes from the families of those who are still in the hands of Hamas since this group carried out a massacre in the Hebrew country on October 7.

Some 250 people were kidnapped and taken to the Palestinian territory, among them a hundred who were released thanks to a truce that was reached exactly two months ago, but which is far from being repeated. Currently, Israel estimates that 130 hostages remain captive in the Gaza Strip. Of these, it is estimated that 28 have died.

The families of those kidnapped are protesting and have even camped outside the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, from whom they demand concrete actions to free the captives, even if it involves an agreement with Hamas.

Netanyahu is on the ropes not only because of the pressures within the country – his popularity ratings are at rock bottom – but also because of the extension of his offensive in Gaza and the casualties in his own ranks. This Tuesday, the Hebrew country’s Army reported that Palestinian insurgents carried out one of the deadliest attacks against Israeli forces since the start of the war, in which 21 soldiers died.

Despite this, Netanyahu has promised to continue with the offensive until “absolute victory” and has urged in recent weeks to achieve the release of hostages with military pressure.

The Israeli proposal

The state of the conflict and the human losses on both sides of the war are fueling talks for the Israeli government to negotiate a new truce with Hamas. The military operation has left 25,490 Palestinians dead, the vast majority women, children and adolescents, according to the Hamas Health Ministry.

Egypt and Qatar maintain efforts as mediators to achieve a new ceasefire. According to the American news website Axios, Israel has proposed to Hamas to halt military operations in Gaza for two months in order to make an exchange between a significant number of Palestinian prisoners and all the hostages still in Gaza, alive or dead.

A senior Egyptian official quoted by the AP agency stated that the Israeli proposal includes allowing Hamas leaders in Gaza to relocate to other nations.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Hamas rejected the proposal and insists that no more hostages will be released until Israel ends its offensive and withdraws from Gaza. The group has also called for the release of all Palestinian prisoners in Israel.

Netanyahu is also reluctant to concede. He has claimed that Israel will have to expand its operations and ultimately take control of the Gazan side of the border with Egypt, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced.

Road full of obstacles

Qatar confirmed this Tuesday that there are “serious negotiations” between Israel and Hamas to reach a truce, but warned of the existence of “obstacles” in these talks.

The spokesperson for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, Majed al Ansari, stated that among these obstacles are the Netanyahu Government’s “rejection” of the creation of an independent Palestinian state and calls for the “displacement of Gazans” out of the enclave.

International analyst Roberto Heimovits considers that the biggest obstacle to achieving a new truce is that the price that Israel would have to pay would be very high. “Israel is asked to end hostilities and withdraw its military forces from the Gaza Strip and also release all Hamas prisoners, including those who carried out the atrocities of October 7, 2023. It is a very high price for Israel because it would mean leaving this massacre unpunished,” he tells El Comercio.

The Israeli government also faces international pressure, especially that exerted by some governments of countries allied or close to Israel that seek to stop the war.

However, Heimovits points out that ending hostilities before dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities would be a defeat for Israel because it would allow the terrorist group to rebuild its military forces in Gaza and eventually launch a new attack that leaves hundreds dead in Israel. In turn, it would be more difficult for Israel, after weeks or months of truce, to resume its military operations and dismantle Hamas’s capabilities.

“This defeat would erode and weaken Israel’s deterrence power against other enemies such as Hezbollah and especially Iran,” says the expert. “What plays most in favor of a truce is the pressure from the hostages’ families because apart from that there is really nothing that Israel has to gain from a ceasefire,” he concludes.