When the war began on Friday, June 13 with a massive bombing using 200 combat planes, Israel said that its goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and neutralize the threat of the development of Balistic missiles increasingly advanced by Tehran.
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In addition, Israeli key leaders such as the Minister of Defense, Israel KatzThey said that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatola Ali Jamenei, “cannot continue to exist”If we wanted to meet the strategic objectives of the war, implying that its fall would open the way to an eventual change of regime promoted from the inside.
At least four people died on Tuesday after the impact of an Iranian missile against a residential building in the city of Beersheva, in southern Israel. (EFE/Magda Gibelli).
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For years, Iran has unknown the existence of the state of Israel and has reiterated its threats to destroy it.
To end the nuclear program of Irancountry that has enriched uranium Up to 60% (90% is the threshold to get the atomic bomb), Israel needed to successfully attack two key facilities: Natanz and Fordowboth located at approximately 12 meters and 80 meters deep, respectively.
Israel did not have the bombs to do it, the United States yes. Saturday, Donald Trump ordered to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and their B-2 strategic bombers downloaded a total of 14 bombs of more than 13 tons about Fordow and Natanz. In the absence of an independent verification, Both Israel and the United States have assured that with the attack the Iran’s nuclear program anniular.
An ‘invisible’ B-2 bomber after supporting the operation ‘Midnight Hammer’ is at the Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, United States. (EFE).
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Iran’s Fordow fuel enrichment plant, northeast of the city of Qom, after the attacks of the United States. (Photo: AFP).
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On Monday there was the retaliation of Iran against the United States And what was feared happened: an attack on the American military bases in the Middle Eastan action that threatened to climb the war. Specifically, missiles shot To the UDIDlocated in Qatarbut these were easily intercepted. It was a contained attack, even Trump himself said Iran had warned that he would shoot that placewhich is the largest American military base in the region.
Then came the surprise announcement of the cease-fire.
Until Tuesday The terms of the agreement were not known. There is only the message that Trump released on social networks. It is not known what Israel were committed and Iran: Will there be negotiations? Will I go now to end your nuclear program? Will Israel put aside his preventive attacks against Iran and the murder of Iranian nuclear scientists? Has the United States guaranteed Israel that Iran will no longer be a threat? It is not known.
Commerce He interviewed two analysts to establish the first conclusions of this 12 -day war that captured worldwide attention.
Who won the war?
Iranian support portraits of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatolá Ali Jamenei, during a demonstration in Tehran, Iran, on June 24, 2025. (EFE/EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENEH).
The journalist Carlos Novoaspecialized in issues of the Middle Easthe told this newspaper that There are no winners in this warmore if we take into account that The high fire is weak and that a spiral of violence could be triggered at any time.
“What we could say from the military, political and symbolic point of view is that This war has evidenced the weaknesses on each side. On the one hand, In Iran, the Ayatolas regime has been put in check, Because if Israel’s offensive followed, he could have fallen At any time, so they accepted this cessation of hostilities ”, Novoa remarked.
“On the side of Israelalthough it is true that he attacked strongly and hurt military power in Iranian territory, its vulnerability has been demonstrated, because long -range Iranian missiles could penetrate their territory causing damage and even dead in emblematic cities such as Tel Aviv, Haifa and Beersheva ”Novoa remarked.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamín Netanyahu; and the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatola Ali Jamenei. (Photo of Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP).
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Alonso Cárdenaspolitical scientist at Antonio Ruiz de Montoya (UARM), told Commerce that it is difficult to raise a victory in absolute terms.
“But We could talk about a political victory of the Ayatolas regime because it continues in power. Recall that there was a time when Mr. Netanyahu and Trump also talked about the possibility of a regime change, but that had literally opened the doors of hell. The background can be seen in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan ”he said.
Cárdenas said Who really takes the worst part is Netanyahu, because he considers that he needs a conflict to stay in power Due to the questions, both national and international, which it has.
“Netanyahu is being investigated in Israel for corruption, is being investigated for wanting to modify the structure of the Judiciary, It is being investigated for negligence that allowed Hamas attacks on October 7, the majority that sustains it in Parliament is increasing He stressed.
What will happen in the Middle East?
What will happen in the Middle East if one of the consequences of this war is the fall of the Ayatolas regime in Iran?
Novoa said the problem in the Middle East the thing is When a regime falls, the next one is not to install a western style democracy or improve the living conditions of the country, but quite the opposite.
“Chaos is sown because guerrilla warfare is generated, disputes for power between clans. We have seen it in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. If the Ayatolas of Iran leave, the United States and Israel seek to install a government related to them, with the consequent opposition of the Islamist groups that will fight them at all costs ”he emphasized.
Cárdenas He argued that for now the Ayatolas regime will remain in power. He also explained that he continues with his proxys that form the call Resistance axisalthough they have been hard beaten by Israel.
“Hamas is weakened but still exists. Hezbollah is weakened but still exists. Yemen’s hutis continue to throw Israel missiles. And now, for the first time since the War of the Yom Kipur of 1973, the cities of Israel such as Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem have been attacked. It was shown that the iron dome is not invulnerable. Decades ago the Israeli population did not live attacks of that magnitude”, Cárdenas said.
“There may be an implosion in the Ayatolas regime, it is something that I do not rule out. But Netanyahu can also fall due to its political and judicial problems ”Said Cárdenas.
Iran’s nuclear program
An image provided by the Iran presidential office on April 10, 2021 shows the Natanz Uranium enrichment plant. (AFP).
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According to the most recent data of the International Atomic Energy Agency (Oiea), May 17, 2025 Iran had 408.6 kilos of uranium enriched to 60 %. Once the war is over, should that material and its centrifugers deliver to the OEA?
After the bombings of the United States to Iran’s nuclear facilities, Trump has repeated that this country will never have the atomic bomb. Israel holds the same.
Novoa said that the president of USA.
“What Trump says always leaves us in uncertainty and nebula. On Monday he said that in a few hours the war ended and that was not so, so much that he got angry with Israel because he continued attacking and with Iran has had a moderately comprehensive speech.”he noted.
“Iran could take advantage of the ceasefire to gain time with a view to completing the idea of having a nuclear bomb. It is something that will be discussed within the public opinion of that country ”said Novoa.
Cárdenas indicated that the underlying issue in this war is that Iran now has all the incentives to develop a nuclear weaponbecause it is practically the only thing that will guarantee that it is not attacked. “The case of Saddam Hussein in Iraq (which was overthrown) is as an example, and sees the case of North Korea, which has the nuclear weapon and nobody attacks it.”
“But the red line is maintained and Israel will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon“said Cárdenas.
Will there be new nuclear negotiation with Iran?
Cárdenas recalled that during the Barack Obama government (2009-2017) Iran agreed to limit their nuclear program in exchange for the relief of international sanctions. But later Trump broke that agreement.
“That took all the incentives to Iran to comply with what was agreed”Cárdenas said.
“Let us remember that Iranunlike IsraelIt is signatory to the Non -Nuclear Weapons Non -Proliferation Agreement. That forces him to the inspectors go and do their job. But in the case of Israel that does not happen. Israel has not signed that agreement. And it is important to remember that Since 1981 the Security Council has asked you to transparent its nuclear program. But more than 40 years have passed and has unleashed in a repeated way ”, Cárdenas said.
He added that to return to the negotiation process, the agreement with Obama would have to be resumed to lift the sanctions to Iran in exchange for greater inspection. “But since that agreement was broken by Trump, resuming it would be to recognize that it was wrong, so it is very difficult to happen.”
