What is Donbás and why is it key to a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine?

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Trump and Putin They gathered the past August 15 in the ELMENDORF -RICHARDSON JOINT BASElocated in Anchorage, Alaska. During the meeting, one of the most controversial songs that touched was the future of Donbás.

According to News agencies like Reuters, Putin offered to finish the war if Ukraine gave the total control of Donbás. Trump supported that proposal, suggesting that it will be considered as part of a possible peace solution.

What is Donbás?

He Donbás It is the unofficial denomination given to the regions of Lugansk and Donetsklocated east of Ukraine. Its surface is 53,200 km²approximately 9% of the country’s territory. Limit with Russia.

The region is highly industrialized, especially in coal mining – including anthracite – in addition to iron, steel, machinery and chemicals. Before the war, the Donbás represented near the 30 % of Ukrainian exports.

In 2022, 6.5 million people lived in the Donbás. They were mostly Russian.

In 1991, in the independence referendum of Ukraine of the Soviet Unionaround the 83 % of the electorate in Donetsk and Lugansk He voted in favor of independence.

However, since then the Donbás continued to maintain strong cultural, linguistic and economic ties with Russia.

What happened in 2014?

On November 21, 2013, it broke out in Ukraine he Euromaidanthe wave of protests and civil disturbances that at the beginning focused on supporting the integration of the country to the European Union and the rejection of corruption, and that escalated until provoking the resignation of the president Víktor Yanukóvich, who was prorruso.

In 2014 a war began in the Donbás, when paramilitar Russians and separatists Prorruse They began to take cities, which caused a military counteroffensive from Ukraine to recover the territory.

The separatists proclaimed the self -denominated Popular Republic of Donetsk and Popular Republic of Lugansk.

The war intensified and the Donbás It began to fragment: one half ended up controlled by the prorruse separatists and the other under the domain of the Ukrainian army.

In areas under their control, Prorruse They organized referendums, where 90 % votes were in favor of the separation of Ukraine. The international community did not recognize these processes.

Minsk’s agreements (2014 and 2015) were looking for fire and some autonomy for the regions, but were never fully implemented.

Over the years, the Donbásbefore industrial motor of UkraineIt was devastated: many mines closed, numerous factories were destroyed and collapsed the trade.

According to the UN, between 2014 and February 2022 died More than 14,000 peopleincluding civilians, in fighting in Donbás. More than 1.5 million internal displaced They fled from the combat zone.

Russia’s invasion

February 21, 2022, Russia officially recognized the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk. Three days later, Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraineunder the argument that he was carrying out a special military operation.

Putin mentioned objectives such as the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, the protection of Russian populations, the defense of the sovereignty of the separatist republics and avoid the expansion of the NATO Towards the border of Russia.

Until before the start of the Russian invasion, between 40 and 50 % of the territory of Donetsk He was held by the separatists and about 70% of Lugansk also had it.

Currently, Russia occupies almost all of Lugansk.

In the case of Donetskestimates vary. The figures indicate that Russia controls between 67 % and 79 % of this region.

At this point, it should be noted that in September 2022, in full roller occupation, new referendums were held that recorded a support of almost 100 % to the union with Russiawhich was then officially annexed by the Donbás, Something that has been rejected by almost the entire international community.

Last week, Zelensky He said that to the current rhythm of the war, Russia would need another four years to finish giving the complete control of Donbás.

What does Putin ask now?

He Donbás is in the center of the negotiation sponsored by Trump so that Russia and Ukraine sign a peace agreement.

Putin demands that Ukraine deliver the entire Donbásincluding the 6,474 square kilometers that do not control and where more than 200,000 Ukrainians live, in cities such as Kramorsk and Sloviansk.

But Zelensky has said that this will not happen and has remarked that The Ukrainian Constitution prohibits the delivery of Territorieither.

As to Trumphas talked about “Exchanges of territories” And he has suggested that Russia He could return some Ukrainian territory in exchange for kyiv to Putin what he asks, including areas where their troops do not have a presence.

According to The New York Times, in mid -August Trump He told European leaders who arrived at the White House that He believed that a Zelensky Peace Agreement could be negotiated agreed to renounce Donbás.

In addition, two sources with direct knowledge of conversations in Alaska They told the British newspaper The Guardian that the Russian president demanded that Ukraine He retires from Donbás as a condition to end war.

Putin told Trump that in exchange for Donetsk and LuganskHe would stop new advances of his troops and freeze the front line in the Kherson and Zaporizhia region, in southern Ukraine, where Russian forces occupy important areas.

Will Ukraine deliver Donbás?

The international analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossian He said to Commerce than the Donbás It is a strategic territory for Ukraine And that he does not believe that Zelensky end up delivering to Russia.

He explained that in Donetsk Ukraine has built important fortifications along the war front.

“Losing these fortifications would mean being totally exposed, because there is no confidence that after the signing of a peace agreement Russia does not try to conquer the rest of Ukraine. Nobody with two fingers can trust that Russia is going to stay there,” Belaunde remarked.

An eventual peace agreement that implies a Security Guarantee For Ukraine by the United States I wouldn’t convince Zelensky To deliver DonetskBelaunde said.

“It will be very complicated to Ukraine Accept that guarantee, because Trump has already said that he will not put troops in that country. And Russia has also said that it is unacceptable for them that there are European troops because they are from NATO “Belaunde said.

“What the United States contemplates as a guarantee is air support, but obviously there will be no airplanes from the United States, or intelligence, and no one can trust what Trump can do. It is absurd, it makes no sense,” He added.

“There is no way in which there may be an agreement in those conditions.”

Belaunde also commented Trump’s approach on “territory exchange”

“It is not very well understood what it refers to, because logically exchange of territory means that Ukraine It should receive a totally Russian territory. Then, Trump surely refers to the fact that, say, Russia renounces their conquests in other places in Ukraine, where he has even declared that they are part of their territory, he has attached them, to receive Donetsk. It is not clear to what Trump refers to ”, held.

“Maybe he seeks Ukraine renounce its territory, which also accepts that Crimea Be part of Russia, but receives nothing in return. It makes no sense ”, ended.