United States Elections 2024: What will be the impact of the assault on the Capitol on the presidential elections?

The shadow of assault on the Capitol of USAwhich marks three years this Saturday, looms over the race for the November presidential elections, having become a weapon between the current president, Joe Bidenand his predecessor, donald trumpaccused of instigating said attack.

Although it is too early to know for sure how the attack will influence voters when they go to the polls, the divergent narratives of Biden and Trump reflect how that event is perceived differently depending on political affiliation.

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The reality is that, the January 6, 2021Trump supporters stormed the Capitol with the aim of interrupting the parliamentary session in which Biden’s victory in the elections was going to be certified 2020 electionsforcing lawmakers to go into hiding and police to confront intruders.

The assault occurred after Trump, at a rally outside the White Housewill urge the crowd to head to the Congress already “fight with all your might”.

Five people died then, four police officers subsequently committed suicide, 1,250 people have been charged and 890 convictions have already been handed down.

The event could influence Trump’s participation in the presidential elections since this Friday the US Supreme Court accepted for processing the case regarding the expulsion of the former president of the Republican primaries of the Republican Party in Colorado.

The decision puts the court in the position of establishing a national position on whether Trump can participate in the elections or, on the contrary, if the role he played in the assault on the Capitol makes him ineligible.

The cases against Trump

One of those accused of the assault is himself. donald trumpwho faces criminal charges in federal court in the US capital for disrupting the peaceful transfer of power to Joe Biden by spreading false theories about electoral fraud.

Face a similar case in Georgiawhere the prosecution has come to describe Trump as a kind of mafia boss who used all kinds of tactics to unsuccessfully try to get the state’s electoral authorities to commit fraud.

Trump, who has pleaded not guilty, also faces the possibility of being excluded from the Republican Party primaries. Maine and Colorado, two states that will probably vote for Biden in November, have already disqualified him and it is now the Supreme Court – with a conservative majority – who will decide at the federal level.

The expulsion is based on the Third Section of the 14th Amendment to the Constitutionapproved in 1868 after the Civil war in the United States with the aim of preventing the southern rebels of the Confederacy who had sworn to the Magna Carta and then betrayed it from coming to power.

MORE INFORMATION: Biden’s first 2024 campaign ad focuses on “extremist” threat to democracy

Found narratives

Despite the large number of cases against Trump, his base remains loyal and echoes conspiracy theories that, unfoundedly, maintain that a group of anti-fascist protesters or even himself FBI They instigated the assault on the Capitol.

Trump has described as “beautiful” on the day of the attack and called “great patriots” to those who participated. At some of his rallies he has played a version of the national anthem supposedly performed by imprisoned protesters.

In contrast, Biden has characterized Trump as a threat to democracy and his campaign is currently investing half a million dollars in broadcasting in key states such as Arizona, Snowfall and Pennsylvania from an advertisement that includes images of the assault.

“There is something dangerous happening in USA. There is an extremist movement that does not share the fundamental beliefs of our democracy”Biden says in that television ad.

Changes in public opinion

These narratives have left their mark on public opinion, with a growing number of voters, especially among Republicans, claiming that Trump is not directly responsible for the assault.

Immediately after the attack, 52% of Americans believed Trump had “a lot” responsibility in the events, but that figure had already decreased to 43% by early 2022, according to the Pew Research Center.

Another poll published this week by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland shows that Republicans show increasing loyalty to Trump: only two in ten believe that the assault on the Capitol was violent, and only three in ten consider the attack legitimate. Biden election.

The key to the elections, however, will lie not so much in general public opinion as in the perceptions of a handful of voters in the key states of Snowfall, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia, who will end up deciding who gets to the White House, Professor Michael Cornfield, from George Washington University, tells EFE.

In many cases, these voters consider themselves “independent”, without a clear political affiliation, and oscillate between Trump and Biden.

According to Cornfield, it is difficult to determine so early in the election campaign whether the assault will be the deciding factor in his vote or whether issues such as abortion and inflation will end up being more relevant.

ALSO SEE: Trump asks appeals court to dismiss lawsuit over Capitol attack

The assault on the Capitol in the history books

Beyond the elections, it has yet to be determined how the assault on the Capitol will be captured in the history books.

The teacher Aaron Kallfrom the University of Michigan, suggests that the partisan divide will likely diminish over time, especially once Trump retreats from the political scene.

“When the Trump era comes to an end, that division is likely to diminish, although it will always be latent“, considers.

To this day, the division persists and the assault on the Capitol continues to be an episode that brings emotions to the surface in American society.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Agencia EFE is a Spanish international news agency that distributes information to more than two thousand media outlets around the world in the written press, radio, television and internet. It has a network with more than three thousand journalists of 60 nationalities. It operates 24 hours a day from at least 180 cities in 110 countries.