The candidates for the presidential elections USA, Kamala Harris and donald trumpthey arrive at the elections on Tuesday, November 5, tied in the polls and the uncertainty will be clarified in seven disputed states where all eyes will be on this Tuesday. Democrat Harris leads Trump in the popular vote with 48%, who has 46.9%, according to the poll aggregator Five Thirty Eight, which puts the Democrat 1.1 points above the Republican. In this way, the trend of the last month is maintained, with a slight decrease in support for the vice president and the former president managing to increase his base by a very small margin.
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This figure represents the popular vote, although in USA The presidential election is decided indirectly through the Electoral college, which has 538 delegates.
This system allows a candidate to win the Presidency even if he loses the popular vote.
Each of the 50 states of USA distributes a specific number of delegates. While most states have a clear voting trend, There are seven considered “hinge” that could opt for any of the candidates: Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona.
It is in these states where the campaigns have concentrated their advertising investment and where the candidates are dedicating most of their time, which has been reflected in their agendas this last week.
This Monday, Harris will spend the day in Pennsylvaniathe state that needs to win the most tomorrow, with rallies in Scranton, Allentown and Pittsburgh and then will move to Philadelphia, where artists such as Lady Gaga, Kate Perry and Ricky Martin will accompany him.
While Trump will tour North Carolina, with a rally in Raleigh, Pennsylvania with stops in Reading and Pittsburgh, and will end in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
The look at the key states
According to surveys aggregated in recent days, The Democrat surpasses the Republican only in the states of Wisconsin (who send 10 delegates to the Electoral College) and Michigan (15 delegates) by just one tenth in both: 48.3% for Harris compared to 47.3% in Wisconsinand 48% to Trump’s 47% in Michigan.
While the former Republican president has the advantage in North Carolina (which sends 16 delegates), Georgia (16 other delegates) and Arizona (11 delegates) also with a very short distance of between one and two points.
Thus, the polls give trump 48.3% compared to 47.3% Harris in North Carolina; 48.4% compared to 47.2% in Georgia; and 48.9% compared to 46.6% in Arizonathe state with the greatest margin of victory for the former president.
Pennsylvania, the state with the most delegates (19), and Nevada (6 delegates) are the two biggest unknowns, since both candidates are tied with less than half a point margin.
However, while a few months ago the advantage in these two territories was with Harris, now the balance seems to lean, within the margins of error, on Trump, who takes 47.9% compared to 47.8% in Pennsylvania and 47.8% versus 47.4% in Nevada. The margin, however, basically leaves them tied.
The five crucial issues of the presidential campaign
Everything seems to oppose the two candidates for the presidential election on November 5, from taxes to abortion. But what is at stake in political terms in this campaign described as historic?
Economy
After three years of strong inflation, purchasing power is an issue of concern for many Americans.
donald trumpwho during his administration reduced taxes on the richest and on companies, promised to raise tariffs to more than 10% on all imports, which, according to him, will allow him to finance a broad tax reduction.
The Republican candidate also pledged to make the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.”
On her side, the Democrat Kamala Harris presented herself as the candidate of the middle class and wants to create an “economy of possibilities.” Although he has assumed some of Joe Biden’s commitments on taxes on large fortunes, he has also moderated them.
Harris promises tax breaks for the birth of a child, help to provide access to housing and incentives for business creation.
Immigration
For Trump, the situation on the border with Mexico is a priority. And it is also a sensitive issue in the campaign, when a peak in illegal income has been recorded during the administration of Biden.
He republicanwho in his 2016 campaign promised to build a wall along the border, has gone further this time, proposing the largest operation to expel illegal migrants in the history of the United States.
His xenophobic and dehumanizing rhetoric about migrants is repeated in his speeches. He has used terms like “invasion,” “hordes,” and “the poisoning of American blood.”
On the defensive about the matter, Harris offers to apply a tough policy. He considers that people who enter the country illegally have to face “consequences.”
He also supported a Biden project to invest in physical barriers at the borders.
abortion
He right to abortion It could motivate more traditionally less politicized Americans to go to the polls, particularly women, which could favor Democrats, because referendums on the issue will be held in parallel to the presidential elections in ten states.
It is the first presidential election since the Supreme Court, in which trump appointed new judges, reverted federal abortion protection in June 2022by revoking the “Roe v. Wade” ruling, which since 1973 guaranteed the right to abortion to American women.
Harris made this a fundamental issue in her campaign and blames her rival for the current situation, which she describes as “horrible and heartbreaking.”
The Democrat wants a federal law that revives the provisions of the “Roe v. Wade” ruling.
Trump hesitates on the issue. The former president defends having left the matter in the hands of the states thanks to the Supreme Court decision, but considers that some “went too far.”
According to the candidate, his administration will be “excellent for women, but he has made it clear that he could use his power as president to limit access to abortion medications.
International relations
With a campaign developed in a context of wars in Middle East and Ukrainethe position of both candidates is under the scrutiny of certain groups of voters.
The Republican, who believes that the United States has never been so disrespected in the world, assures that he will resolve these conflicts without delay, but he never explains how.
trump He has also criticized Washington’s huge financing of kyiv from 2022.
Conversely, Harris promised that she will remain “firmly on the side of Ukraine” and that she will not be a “friend of dictators,” unlike her rival.
Although both express their support for Israel’s “right to defense,” the vice president tried to balance her speech by insisting on the suffering of the Palestinians.
Climate
The United States is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world after China, but the issue has hardly been addressed by the candidates, who have completely opposite visions.
trump He is a climate change skeptic and wants to eliminate subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars, which, in his opinion, harm companies.
He has also promised to “drill at all costs” and plans to exit the Paris Agreement again.
Harris, on the other hand, is committed to “continuing and developing US international leadership on climate.” and has supported much of Biden’s energy transition plan.
As a senator for the state of California, she supported the “Green New Deal,” a resolution that seeks to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
