“The balance of power in East Asia”, by Augusto Hernández Campos

By: Augusto Hernández Campos

The geopolitics of the Asia Pacific is marked by the rivalry between China

and the US, which is a very relevant issue in international relations at a global level in the 21st century.

This region has the presence of several great powers such as the US (the prevailing superpower), China (the candidate to replace the previous one), Japan and Russia (somewhat peripherally). India (the largest of the middle powers) is also included, and thus the spatial scope is expanded to include the Indian Ocean, designating the area as the Indo-Pacific region.

Likewise, other actors such as ASEAN, the two Koreas and Taiwan are present. These powers compete for greater influence in the region. The United States has the objective of increasing competition with the Chinese for influence in the region, and to this end Washington seeks to maintain bilateral and multilateral agreements (such as the Quad

and the AUKUS). Meanwhile, China seeks to expand its influence with initiatives such as the Belt and Road policy

started in 2013. Since becoming the second largest economy in the world, China is transforming the balance of power in the Asia Pacific. The modernization of its military power has culminated in the expansion of its influence in East Asia, which has led to conflicts with other actors, especially the United States, the prevailing power in the region for decades.

In the context of the geopolitics of the US-China rivalry, strategic and security issues take on great relevance. The militarization and nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing’s quest for hegemony in the South China Sea, the conflict in the Senkakus and the East China Sea, environmental protection, and computer security are among the main issues of said rivalry.

In favor of the US

The balance of power in East Asia, which is configured as a bipolar US-China system, will remain favorable to Washington in the near future for three angular reasons.

First, the United States is in a position of geographical advantage and without tensions, unlike China, which is perceived as a threat by its Southeast Asian neighbors, a perception that is fueled by its aggressive policy on the South China Sea.

Secondly, the US has less energy dependence than China, and has naval control and supremacy in oil export areas and routes such as the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, especially the Strait of Malacca (80% of the oil). that China imports passes through this strait), and the South China Sea.

Finally, third, the United States’ labor demographic advantage will increase against China, which will be closely linked to the development of technologies.

The Chinese claim Although the US has a favorable context in the balance of power, this does not mean that China stops aspiring to regional and global hegemony. A fundamental test is the aforementioned initiative of the Belt and Road (supplemented by the policy of the Pearl Necklace

which aims to shore up maritime supply from the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea), which is a main objective of Chinese foreign policy. The purpose of Belt and Road is to overcome the containment applied by the US and its allies, reinforced by the start of the trade war by Trump in 2016, and since 2017 by the formation of the Quad

(quadrilateral security dialogue between the US, Australia, India and Japan).

Thus, China would seek to supply itself not from the traditional maritime communication routes (dominated by the anti-Chinese coalition) but from land communication routes crossing Eurasia, remembering the ancient and medieval Silk Road of trade between Europe and Cathay, and would place America in the periphery of the global system.

The prospects for the balance of power in East Asia are uncertain. However, there are institutions (such as the East Asia Summit) and regional international treaties to which actors can turn to achieve a decrease in tensions and achieve a peaceful evolution of international relations in East Asia.

However, the IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies, London) notes that although the US and China “are trying to stabilize their deteriorating relationship, the prospects for progressively improving them are limited given their differences in ideology and geopolitical ambitions.”