Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro? The elections in Brazil will test the right-wing wave in Latin America

The victories of Keiko Fujimori in it Peru and of Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia They reinforced the advance of the right in Latin America. However, the biggest challenge to that trend still lies ahead. Brazil will hold presidential elections on October 4 and the result will define whether the regional political turn ends up consolidating or finds its main brake. A little less than three months before the vote, the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silvaappears as favorite to get re-election.

Unlike what happened in other countries in the region, where the erosion of progressive or leftist governments facilitated the rise of conservative or extreme right candidates, the Brazilian scenario presents its own characteristics. “Brazil is a different case. Today it seems that Lula’s leftist government is going to be maintained,” affirms to The Commerce the internationalist Francisco Belaunde Matossian. In his opinion, the president comes into the campaign stronger and maintains an advantage that is not observed in other left-wing governments on the continent.

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The most recent surveys support the specialist’s perception. The AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg places Lula with 46.3% of the voting intention compared to 36.6% of Flavio Bolsonarosenator and son of the former president Jair Bolsonarowho seeks to keep alive the political leadership of Bolsonarism after the disqualification of his father, sentenced to 27 years in prison for designing and leading an attempted coup d’état.

In this eventual first round, Renan Santos would receive 7.8%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.9% and Romeu Zema 2.0%. Meanwhile, according to AtlasIntel, in a hypothetical runoff, The current socialist president would also expand his advantage over the first-born of the Bolsonaro clan: 48.8% against 42.3%.

For Belaunde, Lula da Silva’s growth in the polls responds both to his own factors and to the difficulties of his main rival. “Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy has weakened and this is reflected in the polls,” holds. The analyst considers that the president has managed to maintain a relatively stable economy, preserve the social programs that boosted his popularity and project an image of experience in a complex international context.

One of the episodes that have eroded Bolsonaro’s candidacy is his controversial link with the banker Daniel Vorcaro—currently imprisoned and under investigation for alleged financial irregularities— to produce a film about his father’s political career. Added to this is the public confrontation with the former first lady of Brazil, Michelle Bolsonaroone of the most influential figures of the Liberal Party and who She accused her stepson of having humiliated and belittled her.

The third controversy arose after sending a letter to the United States requesting that the tariffs announced by President Donald Trump against Brazilian products were not eliminatedbut only postponed. “All of this, in some way, has weakened his candidacy”, summarizes the international analyst.

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days After the first round (October 4) the eventual runoff of the presidential elections in Brazil will take place.

Brazil and the other wave

Beyond the wear and tear that Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy has suffered, Francisco Belaunde Matossian considers that Lula da Silva’s main strength is in the management of his government. “Lula actually has quite prudent management of the economy, but at the same time he has social programs,” points out the internationalist. In his opinion, this combination has allowed him to maintain the support of broad sectors of the population, unlike other left-wing governments in the region that ended up weakened by economic or fiscal crises.

“These leftist governments maintain their popularity largely because of social programs. “If they are more or less prudent and do not generate an economic catastrophe, they can retain some support,” explains.

As an example, Belaunde mentions the credit facilities promoted by the Brazilian Government for lower-income sectors. “He gave them a kind of subsidized loan so they could buy things they need for their daily lives, such as electrical appliances,” comments.

Although he recognizes that this policy allowed consumption to be boosted, he also warns that it had side effects. “That was good on the one hand, but on the other it caused those Brazilians to go into too much debt. Now they have launched another program to try to compensate for that,” explains. For the analyst, these types of measures help to understand why Lula has managed to maintain his popular support despite criticism of the fiscal cost that these policies imply.

The specialist maintains that Lula da Silva’s personal leadership also makes a difference compared to other Latin American leaders. “He is a politician with a long history, respected. He is not just anyone, he is not an improvised person,” he states. For Belaunde, this experience has allowed him to project himself as a pragmatic head of state, capable of maintaining institutional relations even with governments of opposite ideological signs. “He is a statesman who has to maintain the best relations and avoid fighting with other countries. That is what any normal head of state does,” duck.

A clear example of this occurred after the electoral victory of Keiko Fujimori in Peru. Despite representing opposing political projects, the socialist president publicly congratulated her and expressed his willingness to work with the president-elect to strengthen regional integration. In a message broadcast on his social networks, the Brazilian president assured that both countries could advance a common agenda focused on trade, investments, infrastructure, the protection of the Amazon and the fight against organized crime. “Count on Brazil so that we can build together a more prosperous, integrated, democratic and sovereign South America,” wrote the head of state.

Regarding the relationship with USABelaunde does not anticipate a break if Lula continues in power, despite the differences with donald trumpwho has not hidden his desire for the Bolsonaros to return to power. “I don’t think blood will reach the river. The two seek to maintain a civilized relationship because there are interests on both sides,” holds. The internationalist believes that the economic and strategic ties between both countries will end up prevailing over political discrepancies.

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