“It has been the most complex year for Ecuador since it was born as a republic”

LOOK: Ecuador will require a criminal record certificate from foreigners arriving through Colombia or Peru

The assault on Tuesday the 9th, which lasted more than 30 minutes, occurred a day after the government of Daniel Noboa declared a state of emergency in the country due to a new prison crisis. It should be noted that in the last three years around 500 people have died inside Ecuadorian prisons, mostly controlled by criminal groups.

A few minutes after the attack, the young president-elect’s response would arrive to conclude the mandate from which Guillermo Lasso resigned.

“I have signed the executive decree declaring Internal Armed Conflict and identified the following transnational organized crime groups as terrorist organizations and belligerent non-state actors: Águilas, ÁguilasKiller, Ak47, Caballeros Oscuros, ChoneKiller, Choneros, Covicheros, Cuartel de las Feas, Cubanos, Fatales, Gangster, Kater Piler, Lizards, Latin Kings, Lobos, Los p.27, Los Tiburones, Mafia 18, Mafia Trébol, Patrones, R7, Tiguerones“Noboa noted through his account on the social network X.

Ecuador, considered in the nineties and early 2000s as an island of peace among the turbulent scenarios faced by Peru and Colombia, today became a territory of war.

Four days after that decree, the Armed Forces have taken to the streets and carried out countless operations against terrorist groups. “The military has presidential protection to neutralize them. There is a more effective presence now, in just two days nearly 400 terrorists have been arrested. The population has supported the president because we were tired of this violent situation. He has more than 90% support his decision“, says from Quito to Trade Paul Romero, journalist for the Ecuavisa television network.

– Deep problem –

Since 2016, homicide rates have increased by 300% in Ecuador, reaching an average of 45 per 100,000 inhabitants by the end of 2023. “For the first time in history we ended up with 8 thousand homicides derived directly from criminal violence. It was a scandalous year”says Romero.

A report published in July last year by the Ecuadorian Police also revealed that the wave of violence coincided with a greater presence of drug trafficking in the country. From 2019 to 2023, drug seizures tripled in the country, going from 79.5 tons to 201 tons.

Behind this increase would be a greater presence of powerful Mexican organizations such as the Sinaloa Cartel or the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, responsible for supplying weapons and money to the gangs that already operated in the ports of coastal cities.

“All the provinces and important cities on the coast are hotbeds of violence because drug trafficking is very involved. They are areas that have suffered from dramatic state abandonment for many years, which has allowed criminal groups to begin to replace the State or even the family. All of this has caused violence in Guayaquil to be much more aggressive than in Quito, for example. “My family and my friends live there and at a distance (from Quito) I can only live looking out for them hoping that nothing happens to them,” account to Trade Eduardo Varas, deputy editor of GK, the most important digital media in the country.

rods warns that it is extremely complicated to determine the main cause behind the wave of violence in his country because, he explains, there are a series of factors that make it up. “We can think that even the very fact of dollarization could be considered a factor, because it made money laundering easier for these groups. What I can tell you is that the general impression among analysts is that there has been poor management of the fight against drug crime since the time of Lenín Moreno. Especially because he restructured the management of the prisons that led them to become the grouping centers that we see today. With Guillermo Lasso the total abandonment of that field was completed due to his null decisions on how to face this”, he points out.

– Uncertain future –

Despite being more than 400 kilometers away, the events that occurred in Guayaquil generated terror in Quito, where various businesses had to close for fear of new looting.

The Ecuadorian capital, in addition, still keeps open the wound left by the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in broad daylight after a political event during the 2023 presidential campaign.

“Now (Friday) I see that many people are much calmer. On Tuesday, traffic collapsed throughout the country because people wanted to return home immediately, they felt unsafe. It’s been three days and people are getting back to normal. People have been asking the military in the streets since the Lasso government and now when they see them they have a feeling of greater security”says Varas.

Both journalists agree that Noboa’s decision represents “a turn to what has been seen in recent years”. “In 2023, the vaccine grew so much that small businesses were offered protection in exchange for 4,000 or 5,000 dollars a month. It was crazy. They started with this extortion in Guayaquil, Manta, Esmeraldas, but then it grew to the entire country. Many people chose to close their businesses and leave their homes seeking safety. This is a breaking point in Ecuador: they stop these organizations at bay or they will bring the State to its knees. It is a key moment and that is why we see great political support even from adversaries”says Romero.

This experienced journalist, who has dedicated 25 years to the practice of the profession, mainly covering the situation on the country’s northern border, affected by narcoterrorism, believes that they are facing a turning point for the future of the country.

“We have never experienced a situation like the one we are experiencing now. 2023 was the most complex year for Ecuador since it was born as a republic and, of course, that included journalism. The year ended with 9 journalists who had to go into exile to protect their lives, according to Fundamedios. There were more than 230 attacks on journalists. It is the most critical moment to practice the profession, without a doubt”says Romero.

With the military in the streets, Ecuador has managed to restore a certain degree of tranquility in the population; However, the question still remains as to how the situation will develop in the future and whether the Noboa government will be able to find a definitive answer to the profound problem.

This Friday, in addition, it seems to have encountered the first major obstacle to its plans: how to finance the deployment that implies having declared an “internal armed conflict.” The Executive intends to do so through an increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT), which would go from 12% to 15%, but this proposal does not seem to have the support of all political forces.

“Nobody dares to say what is going to happen, what does exist is the hope that this will be solved, that the violence will end. But it is clear that it will not be quick because we are talking about a systemic problem. Some parties have said that they will not accept the VAT adjustment, so the feeling of unity has shown that there are reservations”says Varas.