How much territory would lose Ukraine if the war ends under the conditions of Putin?

The president of Russia, Vladimir Putinhe agreed on Tuesday in a telephone call with his United States counterpart, Donald Trumpstop attacks against the energy infrastructure of Ukraine For 30 days. This neglects Washington’s original proposal of a high -month fire in the entire front line, without conditions. Not only that, in the dialogue, the Russian president reiterated all his demands for a resolution of the conflict, which in practice would be equivalent to the Ukrainian capitulation, which would end up losing a good part of his territory.

Specifically, Russia He accepted not to attack the electrical networks or the gas supply of Ukraine For a month, something that has done merciless in recent years. Other infrastructure such as bridges, ports, roads, railroads, will continue to be the objectives of Russian missiles. As for kyiv, for a month it will run out of one of the actions that make Moscow the most damage: attacks on refineries and pipelines through drones and long -range missiles.

LOOK: Partial truce in Ukraine: how the high energy fire would be “a victory for Putin”

In the dialogue with Trump, Putin maintained the demands he wielded when in February 2022 he launched what he called the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraineand mentioned others that has wielded in recent months. According to a Kremlin statement, the Russian president emphasized the need to address the deep causes of the conflict.

The objectives mentioned in 2022 are:

• Franse the alleged violations by Ukraine of the rights of Russian minorities in that country.
• Desnazify and demilitarize Ukraine.
• Stop the expansion of NATO to the east, because it represents a threat to Russian security.
• Discard the possible income of Ukraine into the Atlantic Alliance.
• End kyiv’s hostilities against the safe separatists in Donbás.
• Ukraine should recognize Crimea As Russian territory, after its annexation in 2014.

Now there are more demands for Russia To end the war:

• The cessation of military aid and the intelligence supply of the United States and Europe to Ukraine.
• The lifting of the sanctions imposed on Russia.
• The change of government in Ukraine.
• The recognition by Ukraine of the territories that currently occupy Putin’s troops as belonging to Russia.

LOOK: Ukraine is losing Kursk: How did Russia help the bold military operation using a gas pipeline and the Trump factor?

The latter includes, in addition to Crimeathe complete territories of the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. In addition, the Russian annexation of these areas They must have international recognition.

At this point, it should be noted that in the Ukraine areas occupied by Russia there are areas rich in strategic minerals such as the so -called Rare earth, lithium, titanium and uranium.

The main rare earth reserves of Ukraine are found in the regions of Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Lugansk. Although there is no exact data on the percentage of these in Russian hands, it is estimated that they are a significant part of those that kyiv possesses.

Trump intends to sign an agreement with Ukraine related to his Mineral resources and rare earths. Under that pact, the United States proposes the creation of a Investment Fund for the reconstruction of the European countryof joint property and management.

According to him Institute for the Study of War (ISW)currently Russia has about 18% of Ukraineabout 108,000 square kilometers. This includes Crimea.

Russia demands that Ukraine deliver the city of Khersonthat had a population of 275,000 inhabitants before the war; Kramorskwith 147,000 inhabitants; and the city of Zaporizhiaof 706,000 inhabitants. All of them are currently under Ukrainian control.

Thus, it should be specified that Russia It does not completely occupy all the regions it claims. In addition, the ISW argues that in the short term, on the Moscow battlefield it has no prospects of seizing everything that lacks.

The ISW emphasizes that Russian advances have stagnated in the front lineand that the forces of Putin They face more and more unsustainable losses of vehicles and personnel, indicating that it is likely that Russian troops cannot soon occupy the total extension of the provinces that claims by military means.

Win territory at the negotiating table

“The persistence of the demands of Putin of Capitulation of Ukraine demonstrates that Putin is not interested in good faith negotiations to pursue the declared objective of Trump to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine “Said the ISW in its March 18 analysis.

He added that Putin’s calls and Russian authorities for the elimination of war causes equal to Establish the permanent neutrality of Ukraine and the establishment of a proruso government in kyiv.

Zelensky He reiterated on Wednesday that he will not recognize any Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia.

“For us the red line is the recognition of temporarily occupied territories as part of Russia. We will not,” said the president when asked about the possibility that the United States and Russia demand that he recognizes the Ukrainian Peninsula of Crimea as part of the Russian Federation.

The international analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossian He argued that the position of Zelensky contradict what was wielded a few weeks ago by USAwhen he said that In an eventual negotiation for the end of the kyiv War it will have to give up territory to Russia.

“The issue is whether this refusal could lead to Americans at the time to remove military and intelligence support from Ukraineand leave it alone with the support of Europe. That could happen. EITHER Donald Trumpfor the fact that the same Russia He has not accepted the high the total fire he asked, will begin to press Putin, ”he noted.

“We don’t know. Trump is so unpredictable that we will have to see what he decides after talking with Zelensky on Wednesday,” he added.

About Tuesday’s conversation between Putin and TrumpBelaunde said that it can be concluded that The Russian President wants to use the negotiation to obtain what he cannot get by military.

“Putin sees an opportunity because he knows that Trump has a lot of sympathy for Russiaand that has difficult relationships with Ukraine. Then, finally the Russian has not yielded in much and its objectives remain the same, ”he explained.

“Then, basically there is no assignment by Russia, because in addition this theme of high energy fire suits him, because Ukraine is bombing several Russian refineries. In the background, he has practically not yielded anything. And of course, and of course, What Trump is surely. That is a bit of Putin’s calculation, ”he anticipated.

For Belaunde, Putin was strengthened from the conversation with Trumpbecause the result is what suits Russia.

“Donald Trump, who always gets what he wants, has obtained very little. And now Putin is in a position of force now, ”he said.