The security crisis and extreme violence experienced Ecuador and that has led to the president Daniel Noboa to decree a state of emergency and declare the existence of an internal armed conflict reveals that the country is facing “a critical crossroads,” according to jurist and political scientist Daniel Zovatto, co-author of the Political Risk Index in Latin America 2024, presented this week.
These are the keys that, in the opinion of this researcher from the Center for International Studies of the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, define the Ecuadorian conflict.
Weak president and polarized society
President Daniel Noboanew to the position and with a short mandate of fifteen months, faces the challenge of governing in a politically polarized environment.
The lack of majority in Congress It further complicates their efforts to address the security crisis.
Correismo as the main opposition
The opposition led by Correismo, a movement linked to the former president Rafael Correa, adds an element of uncertainty.
This faction’s willingness to collaborate with the Government to overcome the crisis is questionable, which could further hinder stabilization efforts.
Weak institutions and the State without a monopoly on force
The institutional weakness of the Ecuadorian State It is revealed in its inability to maintain the monopoly on the legitimate use of force.
The situation in prisons, converted into barracks for criminal groups, reveals the lack of control and effective management of the prison system.
Presence of international posters
The participation of Mexican cartels and the Albanian mafia in Ecuador increases the complexity of the situation. The geography of the country, with strategic ports facing the Pacific, facilitates drug trafficking activities and other transnational crimes.
Military personnel carry out a control operation at the La Marin central public transport station today, January 12, 2024, in Quito (Ecuador) | Photo: EFE/ José Jácome
Armed Forces and Police committed
Corruption and infiltration in the Armed Forcesadas and the Police raise questions about their ability to deal with the situation effectively. The need for a coordinated and strong response becomes essential.
Dollar currency and transaction facilitation
The use of the dollar as official currency facilitates illegal transactions and makes it difficult to trace funds related to criminal activities, adding an additional challenge to the fight against organized crime.
Porous borders and unemployment
The porous borders with neighboring countries, such as Colombia and Peru, contribute to the mobility of criminal groups. Besides, Unemployment and lack of opportunities may be fueling the incorporation of people into these organizations.
The combination of these factors has led Ecuador to a situation of extreme complexity, in which the Government faces the urgent task of restoring stability and security in the country.
Effective coordination, strengthening of institutions and collaboration with the international community are presented as crucial elements to overcome this unprecedented crisis.
:quality(75)/s3.amazonaws.com/arc-authors/elcomercio/f166835a-1a07-4080-9c33-5e7ee83f5eab.png "Ecuador: security crisis and extreme violence place the country at an unprecedented crossroads 1")
