Does Kamala Harris really have a better chance of beating Trump than Joe Biden?

The Democrats They have time to define their candidate until the party convention What will be celebrated in Chicago from August 19However, they could do it sooner.

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On Monday, Kamala Karris59, won enough delegate support on Monday to secure his nomination in the Democratic Party as a candidate for the presidential elections in November, according to the California congressman Robert Garcia.

“California just voted unanimously to nominate Kamala Harris for president. Our delegates have put the vice president over the required number she needs to be our nominee for the convention!” Garcia wrote in X.

To win the nomination in the first round of voting, A candidate needs the support of at least 1,976 delegates out of a total of 4,000.

On Sunday, after several weeks of questions about the suitability of his candidacy due to his advanced age, 81 years old, and after a disastrous debate against the Republican Donald TrumpBiden decided to abandon the race for reelection “in the interest” of the Democratic Party and the United States, and offered his support to Harris.

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Following the president’s announcement, Harris She has also been publicly endorsed by former President Bill Clinton and his wife Hillary, a former Secretary of State; former House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi; in addition to two potential heavyweight rivals: the governors Gavin Newsom (California) and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan).

Additionally, she has been endorsed by the governors of Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maryland.

In another fact that reflects the acceptance that the Possible Harris candidacyhis campaign reported Monday that it raised $81 million in donations in the 24 hours since Biden dropped out of the re-election race.

It is the largest 24-hour fundraiser by a candidate in U.S. history.

Hours earlier, the ActBlue platform, one of the main platforms where donations are collected for the Democratic Partyhad reported that Harris raised almost 47 million dollars in donations In the first seven hours after it was supported by Biden as her successor.

The money, okay ActBluecomes mostly from small donors.

“This has been the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 cycle. Small donors are excited and ready to face these elections”wrote ActBlue in your X profile.

For its part, The New York Times newspaper highlighted that small donors are quickly joining in. Harris.

The NYT cited as an example the initiative of David Hogga gun control activist and survivor of the 2018 mass shooting in Parkland, Florida, who issued a challenge to his followers on social media to quickly raise funds for Harris.

Hogg said his appeal on Network X had managed to raise $200,000 in donations in just a matter of hours.

At this point, it is worth asking whether it is actually Kamala Harris She is a candidate who has more chances of winning than Trump that Biden.

What do the polls say about Kamala Harris?

In general, surveys published before the Biden to renounce his candidacy have shown that Kamala Harris has the same support results, or just a little better than the president against Donald Trump.

In the latest NBC News national pollcarried out more than a week after the poor performance of Biden in the first debate on June 27, but before the attempted assassination of Trump at a rally in Pennsylvaniaboth the president and Harris They trailed the Republican by 2-point margins among registered voters.

Trumpwith 45%, was above Bidenwho registered 43%; while the Republican surpassed Harris with 47% support to the vice president’s 45%. Both differences were within the margin of error of the NBC News poll.

In the same survey, Harris surpassed Biden among black voters and led by 64 points Trump in this demographic (78% to 14%). Biden had a 57-point lead over Trump.

TO Trump fared slightly better among white voters when compared to Harrisleading her by 16 points, compared to her 14-point lead over BidenNBC News reported.

Other Fox News National Poll After the debate he revealed that Trump reached 49% of voting intention compared to 48% of Biden. While Harris registered 48% and Trump maintained his 49%.

A CBS News/YouGov National Poll among likely voters conducted after the Republican’s assassination attempt found Trump ahead Biden by 5 points: 52% to 47%; while Harris was 3 points behind the tycoon, 51% to 48%.

In New York Times and Siena College polls in the key states of Pennsylvania and Virginia, Harris surpassed Biden by 2 points among likely voters.

In another poll conducted by CNN and SSRS, Trump was ahead with 47% of the votes, while Harris added up to 45%, a result within the margin of error.

All of these figures may change after the resignation of Biden.

Kamala Harris’s strengths and weaknesses

Aribel Contreras Suarezinternational analyst coordinator of the Bachelor’s Degree in Global Business at the Universidad Iberoamericana in Mexico City, states that the Democratic Party is against the clock to choose the replacement of Biden.

“Kamala Harris He already has the support of key figures within the party, such as the governor of Californiathe Clintonamong others, but there are other characters who have said that they are interested in entering the race, competing with other Democrats in a kind of mini-primary.”says Contreras in dialogue with Trade.

As for the strengths that it has Harris If she is finally chosen to compete with TrumpContreras highlights her record as attorney general in California and senator for that state, also “The battle she has fought for women’s rights, for the right to abortion, for access to birth control pills, her support for the LGBT community, these points are unwavering with respect to the position of Donald Trumpwhich in its 2025 project has embodied the exact opposite, a concept of traditional family where there is no room for the LGBT community, supports the setback to the right to abortion, which left it in the hands of the states to make decisions on this issue.”

“Certainly, she or whoever the Democratic candidate is, must take advantage of the weaknesses of Trumpthose weaknesses must become your strengths,” Contreras emphasizes.

The analyst believes that a tough campaign is coming.We have to see who the Democrats’ vice presidential candidate is, because the Republicans have chosen JD Vance, who is more radical than Trump.”

“It will not be an easy campaign, it will be full of discredit, attacks, verbal violence, we must be prepared for a few months of quicksand and with many poisonous darts in the electoral field”warns Contreras.

For his part, the international analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossian believes that the advantage for Kamala Harris There will no longer be questions about Biden, specifically regarding the issue of his health, whether he was fit to govern, and his age. “All those issues that weakened the president’s candidacy will no longer exist.”

“The issue is complicated for the Democrats because it will be a short campaign anyway. Harris If she is elected, and she is going to face Trump, it will not be easy. But it may be that the Democrats now have a better chance than when they Biden maintained his candidacy”Belaunde points out.

The analyst argues that one of the challenges of Harris must be to attract new voters among minorities, those who were hesitant to vote for Biden and that they would not support Trump.

“A fragility that has Trump Regarding the women’s vote, his position on abortion may now increase due to the fact that his rival ends up being a woman,” says Belaunde.

He also believes that Trump will use the immigration issue with more force against Harrissince that issue was one of the tasks that Biden gave to his vice president at the beginning of his administration.