“The conditions for a presidential candidacy of Evo Morales for the 2025 elections have evaporated”

The departmental prosecutor of Tarija, Sandra Gutiérrezsaid that the arrest warrant It aired on October 16, but was only revealed on Monday. He maintained that the measure was taken after Morales He did not appear at a summons from the Prosecutor’s Office. He was summoned to testify for a complaint of alleged romantic relationship with a minor in 2015, with whom he would have had a daughter.

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Morales reacted on Tuesday and said he was “victim of a brutal legal war” orchestrated by the current president and former ally Luis Arce.

“I denounce to the world that I am a victim of a brutal Legal War (lawfare) executed by the Government of Luis Arce that He promised to give me as a war trophy to the United States”Morales wrote on the social network X.

“Like many leftist presidents in Latin America, crimes are invented against me; they do not respect the constitutional principles of the presumption of innocence and due process; They condemn and shoot me legally, politically and in the media. “They have no evidence, only slogans and unbridled hatred,” he continued.

“The Government has an army of prosecutors, judges, police and military, who not only seek to eliminate me politically and morally, but physically. That’s why they tried to poison and kill me.”he finished.

The parents of the alleged victim, Idelsa Pozo Saavedra and Emeterio Vargas Mamaniwere also charged, he noted Gutierrez. The father is already in prison and the mother must be captured since she remains in hiding.

Nothing is known about the whereabouts of the alleged victim, who is now of legal age.

After being charged with the crime of aggravated human trafficking, Morales faces a sentence of “10 to 15 years” in prisonGutierrez said.

The prosecutor maintained that now a judge must set a date to hold the precautionary measure hearing.

“Within the accusation presented there are all the procedural risks: risk of escape, obstruction and othersthat we are going to substantiate it within the hearing of precautionary measures and obviously that we are going to request preventive detention for these two people.”indicated the prosecutor.

According to the official, until now Morales He has not been able to be arrested for various reasons. For example, He was not found at the address he indicated as his own in the department of Cochabamba..

He also said that police officers were attacked by protesters “aligned with Evo Morales.” In addition, the prosecutor assured that the former president has been seen carrying a weapon.

Two days before the arrest warrant was issued, On October 14, roadblocks were started by followers of Moraleswho rejected the investigation against them and protested the economic crisis in the country.

For his part, the attorney general of Bolivia, Roger Mariacastated that compliance with an arrest warrant “is the job of the police” and that this institution must explain “at what moment they will execute or why it would not have been executed” the arrest warrant issued against Evo Morales.

In the past, Morales He said that the complaint was based on facts that were investigated in 2020 under the criminal figure of “rape”, which implies carnal access with minors between 14 and 18 years old. However, Now the prosecution focuses on the alleged crime of aggravated human trafficking.

Is Evo Morales politically liquidated?

Evo Morales would be taking refuge in his stronghold in the coca-growing region of Chaparein the department of Cochabamba. He has insisted that he will run in the 2025 elections, despite the fact that the Constitutional Court has confirmed that the Constitution prohibits him from being a presidential candidate again. What will happen to his political future?

Ricardo Calla Ortegapolitical analyst, sociologist, anthropologist and former Minister of State of President Carlos Mesa, told The Commerce that at this moment “the conditions for a candidacy of Evo Morales for the 2025 elections have evaporatedhave been annulled, does not exist as a minimally objective possibility.”

Calla stated that the very strong conflict that occurred due to the road blockade carried out Morales In October and November it ended with a huge defeat for him. “Something that ended up being crowned with the decisions of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Electoral Court, which they ruled out his candidacy. The concrete thing is that “Evo Morales has lost the Presidency and control of the acronym of the Movement towards Socialism (MAS)”.

Indeed, by decision of the authorities, control of the MAS has passed to the faction led by Luis Arcewho will run for re-election.

Calla maintained that the arrest warrant “shows that Evo Morales is starting to be treated like a citizen furtherstripped of his political power and surely the situation is already very uncertain for him as an individual, because effectively the legal situation is beginning to threaten him with jail.”

“Perhaps Evo Morales escapes, perhaps he will have to emigrate out of the country, but All this is an accumulation of circumstances for the definitive liquidation of his political career.”Calla said.

The Bolivian journalist Rafael Archondo believe that Morales will remain hidden indefinitely and? from hiding he will try to present himself as a candidate.

“If he manages to register his candidacy, he would have to campaign from there, through social networks. But I don’t think the Government will let much time pass before trying to stop it, although it is difficult to know if it will succeed.”Archondo said to The Commerce.

“If a person is not sentenced, they can be a candidate. It has happened, for example, when the former governor of Pando, Leopoldo Fernandezwas a candidate for vice president in 2009, but he was in prison at the time. So we already have that precedent, and it could happen that they accept Morales as a candidate if he does not have a sentence.”he added.

Can he be stopped?

Regarding whether he could be detained, Archondo maintained that around the house of Morales There are many people who are protecting it and who take over. “He even talks about 2,200 people, I don’t know if there are that many people out there. But the truth is that, initially, he is not going to leave the place where he lives”.

“It is very difficult to stop it. On October 27 there was an attempt, there were all the conditions for a successful operation to take place, because the police and a helicopter were there; They just had to arrest him and take him to a military barracks and from there take him out of the area. That would have been the plan. But I think that now it won’t be possible because he is alert,” Archondo indicated.

He added that a search warrant can be issued, but he said that There will be civil resistance, with people willing to interfere with the execution of the order. “It would have to be a massive operation, with law enforcement in an area where practically 90% of the population protects it. For that reason it is very, very difficult. But the Government has already detained an acting governor, who is Fernando Camacho in Santa Cruz. He took advantage of an oversight, ambushed him on a street and took him to the airport and from there directly to the city of La Paz. But I think that in this case, as Evo Morales is warned, it is much more difficult.”he insisted.

Ricardo Calla indicated that in the Chapare Morales has more than one address and agreed that It will be protected by the coca growing movement.

“That situation of being imprisoned within your own political territory is very difficult for Evo Morales. You will be under permanent pressure in the region of the Chapare, Any careless movement outside the venue can mean you land in jail. “It’s not going to be easy to stop him.”he anticipated.

“The police are afraid to enter the Chapare region. The information we have is that the arrest warrant was released in October, and since then they have not detained him.”held.

“Once the political conflict over the road blockade collapsed, Evo Morales was politically defeated. Now it is part of a more normal legal persecution, so to speak”he continued.

In any case, Calla believes that “The case will end with a sentence, which must be exemplary due to its seriousness.”

The case

According to the complaint, between 2014 and 2015, during his Presidency, Evo Morales created a “youth guard” made up of adolescents aged 14 and 15, which he named “Generation Evo.”.

According to the Prosecutor’s Office, the minor’s parents enrolled her in the youth guard “with the sole purpose of political escalation and obtaining benefits (…) in exchange for his minor daughter,” which would constitute the crime of human trafficking.

The prosecutor Gutierrez has investigated the case of the minor who in 2016, when she was 15 years old, supposedly had a daughter with Morales.

The teenager’s parents would have consented to the relationship in exchange for benefits, according to the prosecution.

Morales would have signed the baby’s birth certificate as the father.

Other investigations

Evo Morales faced a case for rape and relations with minors that was opened during the interim Government of Jeanine Áñez (2019-2020).

The accusation was based on photographs and text messages with a minor who supposedly presented an unexplained migratory flow to Mexico and Argentina, countries where Morales was when he left the Presidency.

However, that and other cases were dismissed or closed after the return of the MAS to power and Morales to Bolivia at the end of 2020.

Now In Cochabamba there are seven other complaints for alleged abuse of minors against Morales and last month it was learned that a criminal investigation was opened in Argentina for alleged human trafficking and sexual abuse.