Why is Putin the other big loser with the fall of Al Assad in Syria and what will happen to Russia’s military bases?

On September 30, 2015, when Al Assad He only controlled a third of Syria and his regime was close to falling, the Russian military intervention. That day, the aviation Putin bombed the Islamic Statethe terrorist group that in June 2014 had announced the establishment of a caliphate in the territories it occupied in Iraq and Syria.

LOOK: Why did Bashar al Assad fall so quickly in Syria and what will happen to the Islamist rebels?

When the Russian intervention began, The Islamic State dominated 50% of Russian territory.

After Russia’s help, everything went uphill for Al Assad. On March 27, 2016, the Syrian army recaptured the city of Palmyrawhich was under the control of the Islamic State, which had destroyed important archaeological remains.

On December 22, 2016, there was a strategic victory for Al Assad. With support from Russia, The Syrian army recaptured the city of Aleppowhich also had a large presence of the Islamic State and other rebel factions.

Almost a year later, on November 2, 2017, the Syrian army took the city of Deir al Zurin the northeast of the country.

That same year, Putin visited the Russian air base in Hmeimim in Syria and declared that the mission was accomplished.

As of October 29, 2018, the Syrian army and Russia They launched a major offensive against the Islamic State in the east and center.

For this 2024, Bashar al Assad, with the help of Russia and Iran, another key ally, He already controlled 70% of Syria, including the big cities. The civil war seemed doomed to oblivion, with numerous rebel factions cornered in small territories.

But everything changed from the past November 27when the insurgent coalition led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Shams (HTS)supported by Türkiyebegan an offensive against the Government of the Al Assad.

The next day, the rebels took control of most of the province of Idlibin the northeast of the country.

Then they moved towards Aleppo and on November 30 they conquered it without major resistance.

On December 5, the city of hamain the center of the country. They also captured Homsso they had a clear path to the capital.

Two days later, the rebels approached Damascus. Finally, on December 8 they proclaimed their victory in the Syrian capital. The regime of Al Assadwho had been in power since 2000, collapsed. Putin couldn’t do much to save him. Now the ousted president is asylum in Russia.

Russian military bases in Syria

Russia has in Syria two military bases: the air base of Hmeimim, in Latakiaand the naval Tartus, in it Mediterranean. Now the big question is what is going to happen to them. The Kremlin announced this Monday that will negotiate their future with the new authorities of the Arab country.

With Al Assad in power, Syria agreed that Russia could maintain those military bases for 49 years in exchange for military assistance.

“Russia is interested in maintaining a presence at both the Latakia air base and the Tartus naval base.. It also had a signals intelligence presence in several portions of Syrian territory. So eventually now he might not only lose his presence and influence in the Middle Eastbut also important assets that it has deployed”he said to The Commerce the international analyst Francesco Tucci.

“We must reflect on an important fact. The Russian Government does not care per se about the fall of Al Assad; because?. If another leader, another group can guarantee Russia the possibility of using its military bases, maintaining a certain level of presence, of signals intelligence, it will quietly abandon Al Assad.“Tucci said.

He recalled that currently Russia has difficulty maintaining its presence in the Mediterranean due to the war with Ukrainethat is why it is key that Tartus remain under your control.

The analyst also maintained that it must be taken into account that an important part of the rebels has the support of Türkiye.

“So to understand how much influence you will lose Russia“We must take into account who will govern Syria.”Tucci said.

Is Turkey going to be interested in Russia continuing to have a presence in its military bases in Syria? Tucci said that Türkiye He has flirted several times with Russia, despite being part of the NATO.

“Turkish President Erdogan on several occasions proposed himself as a mediator in the war in Ukraineand also on the subject of grains. Additionally, it purchased Russian weapons systems. So, you have to see the type of game that Erdogan has in mind, because he has already played in both leagues. “It will depend a lot on their interests (Russia’s future in Syria,” Tucci noted.

Putin’s weakness

Regarding how it looks Russia after the fall of Al AssadTucci indicated that the country governed by Putin, and the president himself, are in a moment of weakness.

“And be careful, Iran also loses. The two countries, both Russia and Iran, are in difficulties. They could not help Al Assad on time, or at least not as the Syrian president wanted,” Tucci explained.

For his part, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the rapid collapse of the regime Al Assad is a strategic political defeat for Russia.

“Putin has opposed democratic movements to overthrow Kremlin-allied authoritarian rulers around the world, seeing these movements as hindering his efforts to create his desired multipolar worldwhere Russia and its main allies and authoritarian partners play an important role,” noted the ISW.

He added that the inability or the decision of Putin of not saving the regime Al Assad As the rebel offensive made rapid advances, will damage Russia’s credibility as a reliable and effective partner in providing security to its allies around the worldwhich in turn will negatively affect the president’s ability to realize his desired multipolar world.