The Middle East does not find the way to calm. At a time when the region is experiencing moments of maximum tension due to what is happening in the Palestinian territories and the Red Sea, Iran has opened a new front of dispute with a series of attacks launched in recent hours in the territory of Pakistan, Syria and Iraq, countries with which it had a delicate but cordial relationship.
Tehran emphasized this Wednesday that its actions have nothing to do with the war that Israel – its biggest enemy – is waging with the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, but rather directed its attacks against “anti-Rani terrorist groups.”
The president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisí, thanked the Revolutionary Guard this Wednesday for its actions to “promote peace and security” in the region and referred to the efforts of the “enemies” to make Iran a dangerous place.
Iranian actions have already provoked responses, for now, in the diplomatic arena. However, the tone of the warnings is increasing.
1. Against an extremist group in Pakistan
Despite some border friction, Iran and Pakistan had had a close relationship until Tehran launched airstrikes against a Sunni extremist group in the southwestern province of Balochistan, near the two countries’ shared border.
Pakistani authorities described the attack as a “flagrant violation” of their airspace and reported that it killed two minors, marking the first time that Tehran has launched attacks against the neighboring country.
Security was stepped up in Pakistan’s Balochistan province following the Iranian attack. (Photo: EFE)
Iranian Foreign Minister Hosein Amir Abdolahian said the attack was not against Pakistanis, but against Iranian terrorists on Pakistani soil. “We attacked the Yeish al Adl group (…) Our targets were Iranian terrorists in Pakistan,” he stated.
Yeish al Adl is a Sunni group opposed to the Shiite regime of Iran that seeks the independence of the province of Sistan Balochistan and that claimed responsibility for the attack in which 11 police officers died in the Iranian city of Rask last December, among other attacks in recent years, recalls the Efe agency.
In response, Pakistan recalled its ambassador to the Islamic Republic over the attacks and also asked the Iranian ambassador, who was visiting Tehran at the time of the incident, not to return to the country.
“This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is totally unacceptable and may have serious consequences,” warned the Pakistani Foreign Ministry.
2. Objectives of the Islamic State in Syria
Iran attacked targets of the Islamic State group (IS) in Syria on Tuesday with ballistic missiles and drones. According to Tehran, the offensive was launched in retaliation for the attack in Kerman, in southern Iran, which caused 94 deaths this month and was claimed by the jihadist group.
:quality(75)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcomercio/UYFJAIVMRNFD5L6H52ZV6UJVSA.jpg "Why has Iran attacked three supposedly friendly countries and how is tension increasing in the Middle East? 1")
The Islamic State operates from Syria. (Photo: EFE)
The Revolutionary Guards reported that they attacked with ballistic missiles “meeting places for commandos and elements related to “recent terrorist attacks”, particularly by the Islamic State” in Syria, according to their Sepah information website.
On January 3, suicide bombers detonated bombs near the Kerman tomb of General Qasem Soleimani, responsible for numerous Iranian military operations in the Middle East and assassinated by the United States in Iraq on January 3, 2020.
That attack was the deadliest in Iran since 1978, when an arson attack killed at least 377 people at a cinema in Abadan, according to AFP agency archives.
3. Against alleged Israeli bases in Iraq
In Iraq, Iranian missile attacks targeted “a spy headquarters” and “terrorist” targets in Iraqi Kurdistan in response to an attack on the town of Rask that left 11 dead.
Although the head of Iranian diplomacy disconnected his recent offensive from the war in Gaza, he accused Israel and its secret services, the Mossad, for the bombing in Iraq.
:quality(75)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcomercio/BKYI3Z33O5AO3CLZXJ4F2SCJ3I.jpg "Why has Iran attacked three supposedly friendly countries and how is tension increasing in the Middle East? 2")
The funeral of slain general Qasem Soleimani in his hometown, Kerman, Iran, on January 7, 2020. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP).
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“We launched missile attacks on a Mossad-linked facility in Erbil, without the intention of harming Iraq,” Abdolahian said. “What we did was in accordance with the security of Iraq, Pakistan and the entire region,” the Iranian minister said.
However, the Government of Iraq denied that the attack on its territory, which left four dead, had been directed against an Israeli Mossad headquarters, as Tehran alleges.
POINT OF VIEW
“Iran wants to show that it has the capacity to attack outside its own territory”
Francesco Tucci
Italian international analyst
The states that Iran has attacked may be its allies, but the targets are not. For example, the Islamic State is a moral enemy of Iran and it makes sense for this country to attack it. Iran has suffered several attacks from the Islamic State, which even attacked the Iranian congress years ago.
In the case of Pakistan, Iran attacked Baloch separatists who are backed by Israel. Balochistan is a region that is divided between Iran and Pakistan. Iran has attacked bases of separatists who are present in Pakistan.
Iran is attacking its enemies because it wants to show Israel and the Jewish country’s allies that it has the ability to attack its enemies outside its own territory. It’s an arm-wrestling game, especially considering the current tensions in the Middle East.
This increases tension in the region, but I don’t see a threat nor do I think it will escalate to a larger conflict because the main crisis at the moment is the war in Gaza and also what is happening in the Red Sea with the Houthis. The friction with Pakistan is going to reduce. Pakistan asked for a meeting of the Arab League, Tehran’s intervention will probably be criticized, but I don’t see an escalation. This is more a game of rivalries and enmities that exist in the Middle East.
It must be taken into account that Israel has nuclear weapons, Pakistan is also a nuclear power. Iran is not. Tehran wants to make it clear that it is not going to sit idly by its enemies and will continue its war using its proxies. Iran uses Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Now, the only thing that can escalate the regional crisis is the constant attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea because they are threatening international trade.
