Why do Iran no longer throw waves of ballistic missiles against Israel as in the first days of war?

LOOK: The pump-bounkeres of 13 tons that Israel needs to destroy Fordow and that only the United States has

In its last evaluation published on Wednesday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) He estimated that since Friday Iran had launched more than 400 ballistic missiles against Israel and more than 1,000 drones.

In his first great response to the attack of Israel of Friday, June 13 against its nuclear program, Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles in six waves. These saturated defense systems such as Iron dome to allow several projectiles to impact their objectives.

In the following days Iranian attacks were recorded with almost 100 missiles per day and several of them impacting.

But That rhythm decreased very strong since Monday, June 16, when Iran launched only 22 missiles in four waves. June 17 were 47 missiles in six waves. And in the first 6 pm on Wednesday, June 18 he had launched only one missile.

Until Sunday, June 15, Iran’s attacks had caused 24 dead and hundreds of injured in Israel, In addition to infrastructure destruction. However, since that date, fatalities have no longer registered.

Official Iranian media report that since June 13 Some 600 people have died in Iran For Israel’s attacks, among the victims there are civilians and military.

In addition, ISW records realize 39 Impact of Iranian ballistic missiles or interceptors against Israel from Friday to Wednesday.

This Thursday, The Israeli army confirmed that since Friday he has destroyed about 200 Iranian missile pitchers, which are two thirds of the total of the Islamic Republic.

However, the Israeli military apparatus warned that with the 100 launch sites they have left, Iran could still seriously damage the cities of Israel.

Until before this offensive, Iran had stored about 2,000 ballistic missiles. Israel’s defense forces (FDI) They estimate that until June 17 they had destroyed between 35 % and 40 % of that arsenal.

The IDF have also attacked the Iranian ballistic missile production sites to prevent Iran to replenish their arsenal.

Iran’s difficulties to launch missiles

The shorter distance between Israel and Iran in a straight line is approximately 1,000 kilometerstaking as reference the western end of Iran, near Kermanshah, and the eastern end of Israel, near Eilat. If measured between Tehran and Tel Avivthe distance is approximately 1,600 kilometers.

Iran started throwing missiles towards Israel From the west of the country, about 1,200 kilometers away. But the Israeli air attacks forced Tehran to relocate their forces in the center of the country, in Isfahán.

According to the ISW, from the new location in Isfahán1,600 kilometers from Israeli territory, Iran You can no longer use three medium -range ballistic missiles you had been shooting: Haj Qassem (range of 1,400 kilometers), Fattah (1,400 kilometers) and Kheibar Shekan (1,450 kilometers).

Iranian ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel from Isfahán They include the EMAD (reach of 1,700 kilometers), the Ghadr (reach of 1,950 kilometers) and the Sejjil-1 (range of 2,000 kilometers).

The problem for Iran is that EMAD and GHADR missiles use liquid fuel, which is extremely volatile, difficult to transport and the preparation for the launch takes longer than with solid fuel missiles.

According to the ISW, June 18 Iran used a missile for the first time Sejjil-1 To attack Israel. This reflects the Iranian need to launch more reach missiles from an area further from the Iranian territory.

For its part, the FDI have said that Iran is using less missiles to attack Israel due to The blows that have already suffered Difficulties you have to coordinate your large -scale releases, and not because you are keeping the arsenal you have left.

Iran’s only strategy

The international analyst Francesco Tucci He said to Commerce that Iran has no alternative to counteract Israel that is not the shot of Balistic missiles. “The regime must respond and is doing what it can with. The authoritarian regime will not give in. It will not contain because he is struggling to survive”

Tucci indicated that Iran even use their hypersonic missiles against Israel.

The analyst recalled that since the end of the 90s, Iran defined his strategy against Israel, which is to have the ability to absorb, receive the Israeli coup, and return everything that can be with ballistic missiles. This is because Iran does not have a powerful air force like the Israeli, which takes an overwhelming advantage. “It’s your only strategy.”

“In the first days, The iron dome was not functioning as expected, because the ability of Iran’s ballistic missiles was blunt. But now that Israel is attacked practically 24 hours, destroying deposits, missile and pitchers factories, the Iranian response has decreased, ” Tucci remarked.

“Israel has said that you will eliminate all missile pitchers. In this case Iran will not be able to launch ballistic missiles”he warned.

The pressure to involve Trump

Will the United States be involved in attacks on Iran To destroy your nuclear program? Tucci said President Donald Trump is giving clear signs that he could intervene. He mentioned that recently UU. Deployed 20 cistern aircraft in the Middle Eastwhich indicates logistics preparation for prolonged combat operations, as these are capable of supplying the bombers in the air.

He also said Trump deployed on Diego García Island B-2 strategic bomberscapable of launching the GBU-57 antibunker pumpthe only one that can penetrate Iranian underground infrastructure located more than 60 meters deep.

So, says Tucci, Everything is ready militarilywith hunting and strategic bombers in position, and that only Missing Trump’s political decision to activate the United States operation.

“The deployment of these forces is interpreted as a direct signal to Iran and the supreme leader that the US is willing to intervene whether the conflict scale beyond a certain point, “he said.

And the allies of Iran?

As for Iran’s allies, Tucci was categorical in stating that Iran is alone and will not have direct military support of Russia and China, two of its most powerful allies.

He added that Russia will not intervene because she is completely focused on her war in Ukraine and has no capacity or will to participate in an open military conflict in the Middle East.

“Although it maintains ties with Iran, His strategic priority is in Eastern EuropeNot in supporting Tehran militarily against Israel or USA, “he said.

About Chinahe said that while it is a Iranian economic and diplomatic ally, It is not willing to intervene militarily.

“China will try to reduce tension and promote negotiationbecause a major conflict in the Middle East would affect your global interests. In addition, Iran is an important piece for China, but That does not imply war support, ” sentenced.

Recommended video