Why are the rapprochements between Russia and North Korea increasingly worrying the United States?

LOOK: Blinken denounces “dangerous” military cooperation between North Korea and Russia

This statement adds to a string of statements and warnings launched from Washington towards Moscow and Pyongyang throughout the year in the face of the evident rapprochement that has been accentuated during the war in Ukraine.

“Regarding the support that Russia is providing back to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (official name of North Korea), it is something that we are watching very closely and attentively (…) We are very concerned about any support for the programs of North Korea’s ballistic missiles, its nuclear technology, its space launch capacity“Blinken said during a press conference held at the end of his meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Park Jin, in Seoul.

At the meeting, Blinken and Park discussed the so-called expanded deterrence strategy to counter threats from North Korea, which involves using US military assets, including its nuclear forces, to protect against attacks, and improving cooperation with Japan.

The Japanese, an important ally of the United States in the area, are also directly threatened by North Korean war ambitions.

“What Secretary Blinken fears is that North Korea has begun or will soon begin giving weapons to Russia so it can use it in the war against Ukraine. In exchange, Russia would give North Korea technology to improve the quality of its weapons. The North Korean arms industry is quite large and follows its doctrine of being as self-sufficient as possible. In this way, Russia would gain an advantage in its war against Ukraine and North Korea would have better quality weapons in case it eventually decides to attack its southern neighbor. Both potential targets are allies of the United States and that is where the concern lies.“, explains to Trade international analyst Roberto Heimovits.

– Getting closer –

In July, Sergei Shoigu became the first Russian defense minister to visit North Korea since the breakup of the Soviet Union. On that occasion, Shoigu attended the celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the Korean armistice and after participating in the official events he was guided by Kim Jong-un himself to an exhibition of missiles and weapons.

During that visit, Shoigu hinted that Russia and North Korea could begin holding joint exercises similar to those carried out by the US, South Korean and Japanese armies, which often generate spikes in tension with the North Korean regime.

Added to this was a meeting held by Kim and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in September in the city of Vladivostok, located in the far east of the gigantic Eurasian country. At this summit, both leaders would have negotiated the conditions for the exchange of weapons and military technology.

Washington and Seoul have charged that Pyongyang has sent a million or more rounds of artillery and other military equipment to Moscow for use in the war in Ukraine, an agreement that was apparently cemented at the September summit.

Although neither Russia nor North Korea officially confirmed having initiated military cooperation, after their meeting they praised each other. Furthermore, since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia changed its position in the UN Security Council regarding the sanctions that have been in place for years on North Korea for its nuclear weapons program.

Despite the fact that 40% of its population lives below the poverty line and has been suffering from a terrible famine for more than a decade, North Korea still has one of the largest military budgets in the world. In 2022 alone, for example, it spent around $650 million on weapons tests.

“It is certainly a poor country but it dedicates a substantial part of its resources to the manufacture and storage of weapons. It is not certain, but it is possible that they have surplus ammunition and artillery, which could be destined for Russia. It is unlikely that it will be able to provide other types of weapons, such as tanks or fighter planes, because the ones it has are quite outdated.”explains Heimovits.

– Regional influence (and beyond) –

It is difficult to predict what scope the new cooperation between Russia and North Korea would have. And, above all, what path it would push the dangerous Kim Jong-un towards. The truth is, however, that a possible decision to attack its southern neighbors would represent a problem that would extend far beyond the peninsula.

Therefore, it was not surprising that Blinken and Park spoke about “steps to fulfill the promises of the Washington Declaration” -signed by both countries this year to strengthen deterrence mechanisms against North Korea-, including the operation of the Nuclear Consultation Group (NGC).

The NGC is a bilateral mechanism to coordinate US responses to potential North Korean attacks, including the nuclear option.

“I believe that in principle there would be more military exercises because training is the basis of the preparation of any army. It could also be understood as prepositioning more American weapons in South Korea to be able to have them available sooner in the event of an eventual attack. But it may also include South Korea and Japan cooperating more closely militarily. Let us not forget that Japan and South Korea were historical enemies because the Japanese occupied the peninsula between 1895 and 1945, but in the face of the common threat such as a stronger North Korea, they could cooperate more.”says Heimovits.

North Korean influence, however, would have extended beyond Asia. After the meeting on Thursday the 9th, Foreign Minister Park warned that Seoul is carefully analyzing the possible connection between North Korea and the Islamist group Hamas, after members of its armed wing have been seen carrying anti-tank rocket launchers similar to those manufactured by Pyongyang based on in a Soviet design.

“If that connection is confirmed, the North must be punished proportionally”Park said.

In this regard, Heimovits does not consider that new sanctions would lead to “true consequences” for North Koreans. “There are so many sanctions against North Korea that I could not guarantee the degree of effectiveness that adding more would have. However, it would show how dangerous the North Koreans are because they have the potential to interfere in regional conflicts that occur more than 10 thousand kilometers from their country. We will have to wait if Israeli military sources confirm that North Korean weapons in the possession of Hamas were captured. It could be that North Korea sent it through Iran, that is possible”, he warns.