What will happen to Evo Morales now that the TC confirmed that he cannot be a candidate for the Presidency of Bolivia

This ruling ratifies another decision from December 2023, where the Constitutional Court established that the “exercise of mandate” of the holders of public powers is “only for two periods, whether continuous or discontinuous, without the possibility of extending it to a third mandate.”

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Evo Morales began to govern Bolivia in 2006 and was re-elected for the period 2010-2015, when a new Constitution came into force. Then, the justice system authorized him to serve a third term (2015-2020), despite the fact that the opposition denounced that it was illegal. Besides, managed to get the Judiciary to declare reelection as a human right and sought a fourth term for the period 2020-2025. However, he was accused by his opponents of fraud. The protests that broke out in the country forced him to resign in November 2019.

The order of the Constitutional Court on Friday, signed by judges René Espada and Gonzalo Hurtado, repeats what was decided in 2023.

It adds that it seeks to “avoid in any way the permanence of a representative, in the case of the Legislative (and) Executive Bodies, for more than ten years in total.”

He article 168 of the Constitution of Bolivia says: “The term of office of the President and the Vice President of the State is five years, and they can be re-elected only once on a continuous basis.”.

The ruling is a response to an appeal for supplementation and amendment presented by legislators related to Morales.

After the decision of the Constitutional Court, former Minister Carlos Romero, an ally of Morales, stated that “that” of discontinuous reelection does not exist in the Bolivian or international legal system.

He indicated that the magistrates, by introducing this figure of discontinuous re-election, are modifying the Constitution with a constitutional order and are committing “prevarication.”

Morales will have to look for a dolphin and a new party

About the future of Evo Moralesthe Bolivian journalist Rafael Archondo he told The Commerce that the ruling of the TConstitutional Court It comes at a time when this is quite weakened.

“If this had come when the roadblocks were in progress, say a month ago, it would have been different. It arises precisely when he is suspending the blockades, when his social bases are already demobilized, they are returning to their homes, and then it is a very well chosen moment, if there had been a plan to make this determination.”he asserted.

Archondo explained that this ruling, unlike the one issued in 2023, refers specifically to the issue of the re-election of Moralesbecause the previous one was a kind of footnote within a ruling that had to do with freedom of expression and judicial elections.

“Now there is a very clear decision from the judicial system and, of course, from the government of Luis Arcewho controls the Judiciary, to disqualify Evo Morales. “I think that now the cards are on the table,” assured.

What could Evo Morales do? Archondo believes that he will first wait to see whether or not he is stripped of the MAS acronym. If that happened, he will have to make the decision to nominate another person as a presidential candidate and, additionally, look for another party so that this candidate can participate in the August 2025 elections.

Road blockade

Since Wednesday, supporters of Evo Morales they started to free the roads that had been taken over 23 days, most of them in the department of Cochabamba. Initially, it was assured that the truce was for 72 hours. But until Sunday that period had expired and there was nothing new on the roads.

Road closures left losses of more than $2 billion, according to the government. The demonstrations were to demand that the tax investigation against Morales by rape and traffickingand to be qualified as a presidential candidate.

In this regard, Archondo said that the lifting of the blockades was preceded by a violent unlocking, although without injuries or deaths, carried out by the police a few days before in the parotani bridgethe road that connects Cochabamba with the west of the country.

“This could be considered the first government that has managed to unblock, in conditions of social conflict, a highway. This had not been possible all these years, since Evo Morales It is important in the peasant union world. This shows first that the Government used a very effective tactic, because what is always said is that it can be unblocked, but often in exchange for injuries and deaths. This time that didn’t happen and Evo could not raise the flag of the Parotani massacre, and after that unlocking came his request to voluntarily suspend the blockades,” Archondo indicated.

This outcome has shown a very deep weakness of Evo MoralesArchondo assured, also a possible demotivation among his followers, and a shrinking of his bases, which are no longer throughout the country, but only in the areas where the movement originally emerged. FURTHER.

“Evo Morales can no longer impose his ideas and approaches through forceful measures. Now he is just another political actor who is going to have to litigate in court, who is going to have to look for another acronym… that is, in some way the plurinational State that he founded turns against him.”said the journalist.

And how does the opposition take advantage of the division in Mas?

Will the opposition take advantage of the situation to emerge a strong leader to confront the MAS? Archondo sees it as difficult.

He maintains that the opposition leaders who are aspiring to be candidates have sought to use a discourse that is very contrary to Evo Moralesbut each one tries to fish in troubled rivers. “There has still not been any concrete event that could reinforce any of the opposition leaders, nor has any unexpected leader emerged who could make room for themselves in this difficult time for the MAS.”

The investigation into statutory rape and trafficking

About the tax investigation against Morales by rape and treatsArchondo confirmed that so far no arrest warrant has been issued.

“No further news has been announced in this regard, but I imagine that after his disqualification, an arrest warrant will be issued, because you are no longer talking about a candidate, but only the head of a party. More complaints have emerged against him. There is the case of the use of two trucks from the Venezuelan state oil company by Morales, which also in some way violates the law on political parties, which prohibits party leaders or parties from using foreign support.”he said.

But Archondo believes that Evo Morales He is not going to leave the place where he is taking refuge, in his bastion of Chaparebecause there he has all the social support that would prevent his arrest.

“It may be that the arrest warrant is issued, but I see it as very unlikely that they will be able to execute it”he predicted.