“The probability of an Israeli attack against an Iranian nuclear installation has increased significantly in recent months”A person familiar with American intelligence told CNN. “And the possibility of an agreement negotiated by Trump between USA and Iran that does not eliminate the entire Iranian uranium increases the probability of an attack, ”he added.
CNN explained that the growing concern in USA not only due to public and private messages of senior Israeli officials who indicate that the attack on Iranbut also to intercepted Israeli communications and the observations of Israeli military movements that They could suggest an imminent attackaccording to several sources related to intelligence.
A protester waves an Iranian national flag while shouting antiisraelis and anti -stating slogans during a demonstration in the Palestine Square of Tehran on April 9, 2025. (Photo by Atta Kenare / AFP).
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In addition, the report remarked that Iran is extremely vulnerable today, something that Israel considers as a window of opportunity to attack.
The information coincides with what was published by El Comercio a few weeks agobased on that time on official sources of Israel. Israeli officials said In the attacks of October 2024 they had almost fully destroyed the Iranian anti -aircraft defense systemleaving the country in its most vulnerable strategic position in decades.
In addition to damaging Iran’s defense system, Israeli attacks also paralyzed the production of ballistic missiles.
In the complex of Khojirsatellite images showed last year that The Israeli attack destroyed two buildings used to mix solid fuel, essential for ballistic missiles.
A woman passes by an advertising fence with the portraits of the Iranian and Lebanese leaders killed, on May 11, 2025. (Photo by Atta Kenare / AFP).
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Not just that. Iran’s economy is seriously affected due to sanctions and its regional allies grouped in the Reistence axisHezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, among others, have been seriously beaten by Israel.
In the report of this newspaper, A senior Israeli official said that his country is determined to prevent Iran getting nuclear weapons. According to their estimates, if no measures are taken, In one or two years the Islamic Republic could be in a position to mount an atomic bomb in a missile and be ready to attack.
Another official said “If Iran has the nuclear weapon, it will not attack only Israel, it will use it to threaten the entire region“.
Preparations and difficulties
An F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft of the US Air Force. This weapon could also be used by Israel against Iran’s nuclear sites. (Public domain).
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According to CNN, among the military preparations for Israel that USA has observed are The aerial ammunition movement and the completion of an aerial exercise.
A source told CNN that it is unlikely that USA Help a Israel To execute attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities at this time of negotiations, unless Tehran generates an important provocation.
The news chain remarked that Israel does not have the ability to destroy the Iranian nuclear program without US assistanceincluding refund in flight and the necessary pumps to penetrate underground facilities.
Besides, You need safe air corridors about hostile or neutral countries Like Jordan, Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
This must be added that Iran’s nuclear facilities are scattered, underground and highly fortified.
So, a unilateral attack of Israel I could seriously damage some nuclear facilities in Iran, but Without American support would hardly destroy the nuclear program.
However, an Israeli source told CNN that Israel would be willing to take military actions on their own if USA negotiate with Iran what this source described as A “bad agreement” that Israel cannot accept.
If this occurs, it would mean a break with Trumpwhich is a great ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel already attacked nuclear objectives in other countries
An F-35 Lightning II combat plane of the Israel Air Force overwrite during an air show in Tel Aviv on April 26, 2023. (Photo by Jack Guez / AFP).
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Andrés Gómez de la Torrespecialist in defense and intelligence issues, he remembered Commerce that Israel has already attacked nuclear facilities in other countriesas in 1981 in Iraqhe calls it Opera operationwhose objective was the nuclear reactor Osiraklocated near Baghdad.
That year Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq And I was building a nuclear reactor with the help of France. Israel suspected that it would be used to produce nuclear weapons. Then, his Air Force sent eight F-16 fighters escorted by six F-15. They bombed and destroyed the reactor before it went into operation. It was the first time in which a nation successfully attacked a nuclear installation in another country.
Another similar event occurred in Syria In 2007, with the Orchard operation. The goal was A secret nuclear installation located in Deir Ez-Zor.
Israel I had discovered that Syriawith possible assistance of North KoreaHe secretly built a nuclear reactor similar to Yongbyon. Made a surprise air attack that completely destroyed the reactor before it was completed.
“It is always within the strategic plans of Israel the attack by air or sabotage to nuclear facilities of Iraneven without warning to the United States “Said Gómez de la Torre.
“An Israel attack against Iran’s nuclear power plants It would be a scaling in the Middle East. Israel is confident in its success first because Iran is not willing to enter a total war With Israel, he prefers to insist on the indirect wars using his proxys like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Hutis. And secondly, Iran’s anti -aircraft capacity is diminished. Your response capacity is very scarce. Its anti -aircraft radar and missile defense is very beaten and its Air Force has a very marked difference in relation to Israel ”, Gómez de la Torre remarked.
“That situation gives a strategic trust to Israel to be able to climb. We could say that When Israel attacked Iran last year sought softening, trying the Iranian resistance, already consequence of this now has great advantages to point to nuclear power plants, which are in their war plans, I have no doubt ”he added.
Iran’s nuclear sites in Israel’s sights
This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on October 21, 2020 shows a general view of Natanz’s Iranian nuclear installation. (AFP).
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- Natanz (Province of Isfahán): It is the heart of the Uranium enrichment program of Iran. Here are thousands of centrifugatorsmany of them installed in reinforced underground facilities.
- Fordow (near Qom): It is a buried installation in a mountain, designed to resist bombings. It is considered one of the most difficult sites to destroy and house advanced centrifuges.
- ARAK: Although its heavy water reactor was modified under the 2015 nuclear agreement, it remains a sensitive point for its potential to produce plutonium, another material suitable for nuclear weapons.
- ISFAHÁN: Houses a conversion plant of uranium and other research centers linked to nuclear development.
- Tehran, Tehran Nuclear Research Center (TNRC): He has been linked to past nuclear experiments and could be considered a secondary target.
Iran’s nuclear sites. (AFP).
