What changes with the designation of the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization and what can happen with Maduro

LOOK: Does the Cartel of the Suns exist in Venezuela?: This is known about the organization designated as terrorist by the US.

According to the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, “There is sufficient evidence to determine” that the group complies with the conditions described in the Immigration and Nationality Law that regulate the classification of terrorist organizations.

On November 16, when he spoke about the appointment, Rubio said that the Cartel of the Suns was directed by Maduro and other high officials of his regime “who have corrupted the army, intelligence, legislature and judiciary of Venezuela.”

“The Cartel de los Soles, along with other designated FTOs, including Tren de Aragua and the Sinaloa Cartel, are responsible for terrorist violence throughout our hemisphere, as well as drug trafficking to the United States and Europe,” declared Rubio.

In a first reaction, Venezuela described Monday as a “ridiculous hoax” the designation and He reiterated that the Cartel of the Suns “does not exist”.

“Venezuela categorically, firmly and absolutely rejects the new and ridiculous hoax of the Secretary of the Department of State of the United States of America, Marco Rubio, who designates the non-existent Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization”the foreign ministry said in a statement.

He added that this “infamous and vile lie” seeks to justify an “illegitimate and illegal” intervention against Venezuela “under the classic American format of regime change.”

The appointment occurs amid the massive military deployment initiated in August by President Donald Trump’s administration in the Caribbean for, according to the White House, drug interdiction tasks.

Caracas considers that it is actually a maneuver that seeks to remove Maduro from power.

Over the weekend, six airlines canceled their connections with Venezuela after the warning of USA to civil aviation about an “increase in military activity” in the midst of these maneuvers in the Caribbean.

What’s coming for Maduro and his entourage

Specifically, The designation makes it a federal crime to provide material support to a group considered terrorist such as the Cartel of the Suns, whether through money, weapons, services, technology or logistical assistance. Those involved face penalties that can reach 20 years in prison or more if their collaboration results in deaths.

The formal charges For leaders, their environment and collaborators, it can be terrorism, drug trafficking and conspiracywith the issuance of international arrest warrants.

He economic impact about the terrorist organization is immediate. All its assets or those of its members that are in the US financial system are frozen. Furthermore, any transaction linked to them in banks operating in dollars It locks automatically.

The effect is amplified on a global scale: Financial entities and companies from other countries usually cut ties with those designated to avoid secondary sanctionswhich leaves the group practically isolated from the international financial system.

The designation also has immigration and judicial consequences. Those who are part of the organization or support it may be banned from entering the United States. or face deportation proceedings. At the same time, the designation serves as a basis for requests for international cooperation, facilitating extraditions. of regime officials.

At the diplomatic level, the country where the group operates, in this case Venezuelais under pressure to take action, since for the United States this organization is a direct threat to its security.

There will be pressure on third countries to break relations with Venezuela or apply similar measures.

Also complicates possible negotiation attempts, since the United States usually emphasizes that it does not make deals with terrorists, and opens the door to an increase in covert operations, surveillance and security actions aimed at dismantling its support network

A before and after between the United States and Venezuela

Francesco Tucciprofessor of Political Science and International Relations at the Peruvian University of Applied Sciences (UPC), tells The Commerce that The designation marks a before and after in Washington’s policy towards Venezuela. According to the analyst, that label gives the United States a much broader legal arsenal to criminally prosecute anyone who collaborates with the network, including Venezuelan officials and political figures.

He maintains that the designation also introduces the possibility of classifying any relationship with Venezuelan state structures as “material support for terrorism” that the US Executive determines as linked to the Cartel of the Suns.

He emphasizes that US law does not automatically authorize the use of military force simply by placing an organization on the terrorism list.. However, the new status “opens up additional options” for the administration, including intelligence operations, international cooperation and direct actions to degrade the group’s operational capacity.

Tucci emphasizes that international law imposes clear limits: The United States cannot intervene militarily in Venezuelan territory without authorization from the UN Security Council or without proving an imminent threat.. Outside of these aspects, any large-scale action would violate Venezuelan sovereignty, although specific or “surgical” operations could be justified if they are presented as measures to prevent immediate terrorist risks, he notes.

For its part, Andrés Gómez de la Torre, a specialist in defense and intelligence issues, considers that the designation It is “a new step in a long-term process” that Washington has been building for months.. “This doesn’t appear out of nowhere,” he warns.

Remember that trump started first with the unilateral classification of drug cartels as terrorist organizations, Then he expanded the role of the defense and intelligence sector in anti-drug operations, issued million-dollar rewards against the leadership of Chavismo (50 million dollars for Maduro), seized assets linked to Maduro’s entourage and deployed military assets in the Caribbean in successive phases.

According to Gómez de la Torre, Trump recently received a document with the “menu of options” that the Southern Command considers feasible in the air, maritime and eventually territorial spheres. These capabilities, he points out, are part of a pressure strategy that also involves bilateral military exercises with Trinidad and Tobago. “The cost of escalation is high,” he warns, but says that responds to a logic of gradual accumulation of deterrent power.

“All options are technically available”he assures, while remembering the case of Qasem Soleimanithe Iranian general assassinated by a United States drone, as an example of the type of operation that today is within the capabilities already deployed in the Caribbean.

The great unknown, says Gómez de la Torre, is Whether or not there is political will in Washington for action directed against Maduro or his close circlewhether it be a capture to be brought before US courts – as happened with Manuel Antonio Noriega in Panama – or a direct force operation, in line with precedents such as Osama Bin Laden or Soleimani. “That is the point that the official discourse still does not clarify,” he points out.