What chances does Edmundo González Urrutia have of assuming power in Venezuela on January 10?

Last week, Gonzalez Urrutia gave an interview to the EFE agency in which he assured that he intends to travel to Venezuela to take office because, he said, 7.3 million Venezuelans voted for him on July 28, compared to the little more than 3 million he attributed to Ripe.

LOOK: The list of the 21 Nicolás Maduro officials sanctioned by the United States

He added that He is “morally prepared” for his eventual detention if he returns to Caracasalthough he expressed confidence that this will not happen.

At the beginning of September, the Attorney General’s Office Venezuela obtained an arrest warrant against Gonzalez Urrutiathe opposition candidate Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) and supported by popular politics Maria Corina Machadoas part of an investigation that seeks to determine who is responsible for the website Results with VZLAwhich published a large part of the official minutes of the July 28 elections.

“What I don’t have is a ticket yet, but my plan is to be there. The plans are to return to Caracas on January 10 and take office that day.”stated the opponent.

He announced that in an eventual administration as president, He will advocate for “negotiations for an orderly transition,” with the release of political prisoners.

About Ripeindicated that “he finished his mandate” and “will take his course.”

Recently The United States recognized González Urrutia as elected president of Venezuela and last week President Joe Biden’s government announced sanctions against 21 officials of the Maduro regime.

In addition, this Sunday there were protests by Venezuelans in countries such as Spain and the United Kingdom to demand that the International Criminal Court (ICC) take action against Maduro and his regime.

In 2021, the ICC opened an investigation into the situation of Venezuela for alleged crimes against humanity perpetrated in 2017, during anti-government protests that were brutally repressed by security forces. So far there is no concrete decision in this regard.

What can happen between now and January 10? Two analysts give their opinion on the matter:

It is possible that González Urrutia will be sworn in as president

For Carmen Beatriz FernandezCEO of DataestrategIA and professor of Political Communication at the University of Navarra, it is still possible that Edmundo González Urrutia assume power in Venezuela on January 10, “as contemplated in the Constitution, as the legitimate winner of the July 28 elections. It is possible because we are still 40 days away.”

“The sin that has been committed Ripe is to hide the true results of the elections. On January 11 we would enter another dynamic that implies a usurpation of power because he lost the elections. Venezuela would enter a much more fragile, much more unstable dynamic and the crime that would be taking place would be much more serious,” Fernández explained to The Commerce.

What would have to happen for González Urrutia to take possession? According to the analyst, “a negotiation space would have to be opened where the offer of transition to democracy that the opponent represents offers guarantees to those who leave power. It is a space for negotiation where at the same time the National Assembly is recognized and the winner of the elections is sworn in. So, González Urrutia will only be able to assume the Presidency if this negotiation process takes place beforehand.”.

Regarding the mood of the citizens and whether they will demonstrate in the streets before January 10 to pressure for respect for the results of the elections, Fernández believes that “in general, politics is the way to avoid conflicts in a society.” . When politics, understood as the ability to reach an agreement (and elections are that ability that societies have to reach an agreement and where there are winners and losers), is eliminated and you steal the elections or ignore a result, what you are doing is an open invitation to conflict.”

“In that sense, I think In Venezuelan society the conditions are in place for greater conflict and long-winded. This despite the repression that occurred after July 28, which has caused fear to take hold among citizens. But the conditions are there and they can emerge at any time and with much more force,” he anticipated.

The opposition is unlikely to take over

Jesus Abreu Menaa political journalist for the El Pitazo portal, told El Comercio that “Everything seems to indicate that Maduro is going to be sworn in on January 10. The scenario of an swearing-in of Edmundo González Urrutia, as the legitimate winner of the presidential election, as reflected in the scrutiny records that the majority opposition collected, is unlikely, since The efforts of the ruling party aim to prevent that from happening regardless of the cost.. However, The date of January 10 looks like the beginning of a new conflictive stage and the worsening of the political crisis in Venezuelabased on the legitimacy crisis that Maduro must face.”

The journalist explained that for González Urrutia to be sworn in, several conditions must come together. “First, the very willingness of power factors of the ruling elite to recognize the results of July 28 that reflect the tally sheets. Secondly, that there be a political negotiation for a democratic transition, as the majority opposition that leads Maria Corina Machado. The situation in Venezuela is quite complicated because the ruling party wants it that way. In this context, internal and external variables are also and will be relevant and determining factors in the coming months.”.

Regarding whether anti-government protests will resurface in Venezuela between now and January, Abreu indicated that “Maria Corina Machadoas opposition leader, has proposed a low-risk protest strategy after the repression and persecution after July 28. In this context, it is unlikely that, for the moment, protests like those that occurred on July 29 and 30 will emerge. However, social unrest, discontent, have not disappeared, quite the opposite.”