There were many relief sighs in Latin America After the announcement of US President Donald Trump of their customs tariffs for everyone, because the countries of Asia and Europe will have to pay much higher rates than Latin Americans to export to USA.
However, these celebrations are premature. Unless Trump backward in the coming weeks, everything indicates that its commercial war will lead to USA To a recession as soon as this year, which will make exports from around the world fall.
The announcement of Trump Of April 2, it included much higher tariffs than economists had anticipated, and caused a collapse of the Wall Street bag. Trump He put tariffs of 46% to Vietnam, 34% to China, 26% to South Korea, 24% to Japan and 20% to the countries of the European Union.
Compared, Mexico and Canada They were exempt from this new round of tariffs, although they are still subject to a 25 % tariff that Trump He imposed some of his products last month. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and other countries in the region will have to pay a tariff comparantively less than 10 %. The Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, celebrated the “preferential treatment” he received Mexico. Some Latin American analysts said the tariffs of Trump They will give a competitive advantage to the region, because they can be exported with lower customs taxes than Asians.
In addition, optimists argue that tariffs of Trump They could promote new investments in the region, because we are going to move from a “globalized” world to a “regionalized” world. That could lead many companies to transfer their Asia factories to Mexico or South America, they say.
But Marcelo Giugale, Professor of International Economics at the University of Georgetown and former official of the World Bank, He put things in perspective. “The fact that it has been better than others does not mean that it has done well,” he told me.
He added that the uncertainty about the erratic policies of Trump It will freeze investment plans in value chains. “No one is going to invest without knowing if he will be able to export to the market United States”
A world recession will harm virtually all countries, he added. The investment firm JP Morgan now projects a 60 % probability of recession in USA This 2025.
In addition, although the tariff of Trump For most Latin American countries, many countries of Latin America They were paying tariffs lower than 10% before. If they paid 2% of tariff before, they will now pay 10%.
Alberto Bernal, Global Strategy Director of XP Investments, who has been a supporter of supporter of Trumphe told me that the new American tariffs “will cause a recession in the United States, yes or yes.”
Bernal projects that the US economy will contract 2.7% last year to 1% or less this year. Others are even more pessimistic: Nomura Securities International PLC provides that the United States economy will grow only 0.6% this year, and Barclays PLC projects a 0.1% contraction.
Brazil and, to a lesser extent, Argentina could compensate some of its losses with greater soy exports to China. China has retaliation against tariffs of Trumpreducing their purchases of American agricultural products, and could start buying more soy in Brazil.
Many friends ask me why Trump He has opted so strongly to his tariffs, although the vast majority of economists had warned him – and they are – a nonsense.
The most likely explanation is that the obsession of Trump With tariffs it has nothing to do with commerce, but with power. By imposing exorbitant customs taxes on foreign products, Trump He has everyone – Paísses foreigners and great corporations – at his feet, praying exemptions for themselves. And he decides who deserves a respite and who is not.
Meanwhile, those who celebrate relatively low tariffs for Latin America They run the risk of not seeing the full photo: a possible global recession that will not forgive anyone, starting with USA.
–Glossado and edited–
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