Ukrainian advance into Russian territory a week after surprise incursion: 28 towns already captured

“The situation in the region is currently complex. Today There are 28 localities under enemy control, the depth of penetration into the territory of the Kursk region is 12 kilometers and the width is 40 kilometers.”, said the governor of Kursk on Monday Alexei Smirnovin a telematic meeting with the president Putinand other authorities in the country.

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He governor He stated that in those 28 locations Some 2,000 people live there, he said, but “their fate is unknown.”

Besides, Smirnov reported that since Tuesday of last week, 12 civilians have been killed in Kursk and 121 were injured, including 10 children.

Smirnov He also gave figures of evacuated: 121,000 people in one week and another 60,000 are expected to leave their homes.

“The problem is that there is no clear front line, there is no understanding of where the combat units (of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)”said Smirnovwho insisted that “it is very important to know where the enemy is,” reported the EFE agency

Tracking all the Ukrainian units patrolling the region and creating distractions is difficult, he said. Smirnovnoting that some are using fake Russian IDs.

On Monday, the governor of the region of Belgorodadjacent to Kurskalso announced the evacuation of people from a district near the Ukrainian border, describing the situation as “alarming,” without giving further details, according to the AP news agency.

For its part, Putin said he has ordered the Russian army to “expel” Ukrainian troopsThe president said that one of kyiv’s objectives is to stop the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine, specifically in Lugansk and Donetsk.

He added that another goal is to improve kyiv’s position in some possible peace negotiations.

“But what negotiations can be held with people who indiscriminately attack civilians? (…) What can be held with them?” he said.

Putin assured that Russia will give a firm response to the actions of Ukraine and will achieve all the goals it has set for itself.

The Russian president said that the number of volunteers joining the army has increased due to the attack. He added that Russian forces will continue their offensive in eastern Ukraine.

On August 6th, Ukraine launched a surprise large-scale operation in Kursktwo and a half years after the start of the Russian invasion.

Ukrainian forces have rapidly advanced on the town of Sudzha, about 10 kilometres from the border. According to recent reports, they still control the western part of the town, which includes a major natural gas transit station.

The Ukrainian operation is being conducted under strict secrecy and its objectives have not been disclosed.

Just on Saturday, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyspoke about the offensive and confirmed that his country’s troops crossed Russia. “Ukraine is proving that it really knows how to restore justice and guarantees exactly the kind of pressure that is needed: pressure on the aggressor.” he said in a speech.

On Monday, Zelensky He said the raid was a “disaster in this war” for Moscow.

“We can see what happens with Russia under Putin: 24 years ago the disaster of the Kurskthe symbolic beginning of his Government,” he said Zelenskyreferring to the sinking of the Russian submarine of the same name, in which its 118 crew members died.

“And now it is clear what the end is for him. Kursk too. “The disaster of this war,” Zelensky said.

Also on Monday, Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrsky said in a video posted on social media Zelensky that his troops seized some 1,000 km2 of Russian territory and are maintaining their offensive.

The Kursk region’s border with Ukraine is 245 kilometers (150 miles) long.

The shortcomings of the Russian army

The internationalist Enrique Banusdirector of the Institute of European Studies at the University of Piura, stressed that The Ukrainian operation is not a counteroffensive like the one launched in June of last year and ended in total failure.

“It is a different tactic, it is an element of surprise that consists of entering enemy territory that has been well studied and that they detected was quite unprotected. In fact, Instead of containing the offensive, what the Russians are doing is evacuating the population.”, Banús remarked in dialogue with The Trade.

“It was something that was not expected, the Ukrainians were losing the initiative, they had lost territory, they were under strong pressure, and suddenly we find ourselves with a maneuver like this, which they kept very secret, but they have already admitted that they are seeking to destabilize the Russians. They have turned the situation around”Banús noted.

For the internationalist, Ukrainian action exposes Russian army’s incapacity“They are making fools of themselves because they have not been able to organize themselves within their territory to force them to retreat.”

“It is striking that the Russian intelligence services did not detect anything. The Ukrainians entered with a force that was not massive but significant, and the Russian army was unable to force them back. By Monday they had already taken 28 towns.”said Banús.

The raid leaves the image of Putinsays Banús. “In the past, there has been a lot of analysis of the slow and complicated decisions made by the Russian army due to its extreme verticality. They have very vertical, old structures and therefore decisions are slow, because they are concentrated in very few people, flexibility is not one of their characteristics. It seemed that they had corrected something, but it seems that they are still using their very outdated structures.”

Banús said that if Russia accepts this reality, leaving Ukrainian troops on its territory and establishing that it is the new status quo, it would be a total humiliation.

“Another alternative that has Russia “To deal with this situation, the Russians have to ease off the offensive on other war fronts, where they were conquering territory in a limited way. This is a change, a turn. It is the turn that was expected at one point from the Ukrainian counteroffensive last year, which failed completely, and so the Russians were advancing again. Behind this is also the decision of the Western countries that their weapons can be used on Russian territory.”Banús emphasized.

What will Russia do?

Since the start of the war in February 2022, Russia has already suffered incursions into its territory, but what is happening in Kursk is the biggest attack on the country since World War II.It is also the first time that the Ukrainian military has led an incursion instead of pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters who have made similar, fleeting actions in the recent past.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, the Ukrainian advance into Russian territory “challenges operational and strategic assumptions” of the Kremlin forces.

“The operation has allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily seize the initiative on the battlefield in one area of ​​the front line and to counter the Russian initiative throughout the entire theater of operations,” ISW said.

The ISW also noted that the Ukrainian operation forces the Kremlin and the Russian military command to make a decision on whether to consider the 1,000-kilometer international border with northeastern Ukraine as a legitimate front that Russia must defend, rather than an inactive zone of the theater of operations, as they have treated it since 2022.

“The hastily assembled and dispersed Russian force grouping responding to the Ukrainian incursion at Kursk is comprised of Russian units likely below doctrinal end strength and ill-prepared to establish the joint command and control structures necessary to coordinate operations,” ISW said.