The elected president said in his first television interview after the elections that he will deport all those found illegally in which would add up to more than 12 million people. But mark my words: that is not going to happen.

There are practical, legal and economic reasons why trump It will not be able to come even remotely close to deporting all undocumented immigrants.

When asked in his interview with NBC if his plan is to “deport in the next four years all those who are here illegally,” trump He responded: “Well, I think it has to be done.”

trump He said he will begin by deporting immigrants who have criminal records. The person in charge of border control designated by trumpTom Homan stated that there are 1.5 million immigrants with criminal records. According to official data from the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, the real number is 660,000. Most immigration experts say that trump It may marginally increase the number of deportations, but never expel 12 million or more.

Trump's mass deportations: a feasible plan?, by Andrés Oppenheimer (illustration: Giovanni Tazza)

Trump’s mass deportations: a feasible plan?, by Andrés Oppenheimer (illustration: Giovanni Tazza)

To put the numbers in perspective, trump He deported 1.5 million immigrants during his four years in office. He will have deported a similar number during his four years in power, not counting expulsions under the now defunct order known as Title 42 to prevent the spread of the virus. .

First, if the past is any indication, take Trump’s campaign promises with a grain of salt. trump. The president-elect began his first presidential campaign of 2016 by promising that he would build a wall along the 3,200 km border and that “I will make it pay for that wall.” But he did neither one thing nor the other. trump only built 5 km of new border wall and Mexico he never paid a cent for them, according to the fact-checking site PolitiFact.

Secondly, deporting more than 12 million undocumented immigrants would be incredibly expensive. According to a study by the American Immigration Council, it would cost at least $315 billion, “and that would be a very conservative estimate.” The figure does not even take into account the cost of building prisons for more than 12 million potential deportees.

Third, deporting all undocumented immigrants would wreak havoc on the construction, agriculture and gastronomy industries, which largely depend on undocumented workers.

Fourth, there would be enormous legal obstacles to deporting all undocumented immigrants, because the Constitution guarantees due process to all people living in the country, including undocumented immigrants.

Finally, more and more Americans may realize that trump He lies when he says that there is an “invasion” of undocumented immigrants: there was one in 2022 and 2023, but the flow of undocumented immigrants fell by 60% in 2024, according to official figures. trump He fails to mention that his famous “invasion” no longer exists.

The most worrying thing is that trumpwho has said that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” uses undocumented immigrants for political purposes to keep his base excited. I fear that, in addition to causing damage to the economy, it will contribute to increasing racism.

–Glossed and edited–

© El Nuevo Herald. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC

*El Comercio opens its pages to the exchange of ideas and reflections. In this plural framework, the Diario does not necessarily agree with the opinions of the columnists who sign them, although it always respects them.



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