Trump’s agreement with Iran to end the war: What does the pact that is about to be signed include?

The president of the United States, donald trumpsaid on Monday on his Truth Social network that The agreement with Iran is “practically negotiated” and what fHe will sign a “grand and important” pact with Tehran, “or there will be no agreement.”

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While the Secretary of State, Marco Rubiostated that the agreement could be signed on Monday. He assured that the United States has “a fairly solid proposal” on the table. to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

For its part, Iran acknowledged that it agrees with the United States on many points, but affirmed that the signature is not imminent.. He stressed that the proposal under discussion does not include immediate concessions on nuclear matters.

“It is true that we have reached a conclusion on most of the issues under discussion. But stating that the signing of an agreement is imminent is something that no one can sustain,” said the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmail Baqai.

Thus, the Iranian regime tempered expectations by arguing that the “frequent changes” and contradictions on the part of the United States present “problems and obstacles” in the midst of negotiating the final details of the memorandum.

What does the memorandum of understanding contain?

According to the Axios portal, The draft memorandum of understanding contemplates a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire (in force since April), during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened.

Besides, Iran must remove mines deployed in the Strait of Hormuz to guarantee the free passage of ships.

While the United States must lift the blockade of Iranian ports and grant some exemptions to current sanctions against Tehran.

As part of the agreement, Iran will be able to sell oil freely againwhich would relieve its economy and pressure on the global oil market.

Axios reported that The draft memorandum includes Iran’s commitment not to seek nuclear weapons, one of the main red lines established by trump during negotiations and which is also a fundamental requirement of Israel.

However, The semi-official Iranian agency Tasnim assured that the agreement does not include any nuclear clause and that all matters related to the atomic program have been postponed to negotiations after the signing of the memorandum of understanding, within a period of 60 days.

According to two Axios sources, Iranthrough the mediators, offered the United States verbal commitments on the scope of the concessions it is willing to make to suspend uranium enrichment and give up the nuclear material it possesses.about 440 kilos of uranium enriched to 60%.

The United States would study lift more sanctions and unfreeze Iranian fundsbut only as part of a verifiable final agreement.

It is also proposed that end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollahalthough Israel would retain room for action if it considers that the Lebanese militant group is trying to rearm.

How was the document obtained? Axios said that The agreement emerged after intense regional mediation: Trump consulted on Saturday with leaders of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Türkiye and Pakistanwho supported the initiative.

Pakistan was the main mediatorheaded by Marshal Asim Munirwho was in Tehran promoting the negotiations.

Trump evaluated two options: escalate militarily with new attacks or advance through diplomatic channelsand finally leaned towards negotiation.

In parallel, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed its reservations on several points of the agreement.

Trump needs to close a deal

The international analyst Francesco Tucciprofessor of Political Science and International Relations at the UPC, told The Commerce that the draft memorandum It may represent an important step to reduce tensions in the Middle East, although it is still far from guaranteeing lasting normalization between both parties.

“It is a notable step forward. However, some elements are missing to see if the agreement can be lasting.”he stated.

For Tucci, one of the main gaps is the absence of references to a permanent ceasefire and the lack of definitions on the negotiation deadlines for the most sensitive aspects.

“A series of elements and preconditions are missing to understand whether this draft can actually be effective.”, he warned.

He pointed out that The most critical point continues to be the Iranian nuclear programprecisely one of the central issues for Washington.

As he explained, it is still not clear how measures such as the suspension of uranium enrichment or the fate of Iranian reserves of enriched material would be carried out.

“Trump needs the nuclear issue to be included. It is in the draft, but it is not clear how what is written will be developed, when the delivery will be given and what the times will be.”held.

Despite this, he considered that the document could serve as a basis to move towards a broader understanding.

Tucci also drew attention to Trump’s pressure strategy during the negotiations and did not rule out that the US president will once again resort to coercive measures to force concessions from Tehran.

“We don’t know if Trump wants to press another attack. It is possible; cannot be ruled out”, he pointed out.

Even so, he expressed his expectation that the process will move towards a diplomatic solution and not towards a new military escalation.

One of the elements that the analyst highlights most is Israel’s limited role within the known terms of the agreement. As he explained, the leaked document would not include especially sensitive topics for the Netanyahu government, such as the Iranian ballistic missile program.

Tucci considered that this situation could open tensions between Washington and Tel Aviv, especially if the strategic priorities of trump begin to differ from those of Israel.

He warned that Israel could still try to pressure to modify the conditions or even hinder or boycott the process if it considers that the agreement affects its strategic interests.

“Trump needs a deal right now. Otherwise, you can’t say you’ve won.”, he stated.

“It seems to be an agreement that can pacify, at least temporarily and in a transitory manner, the region”, he concluded.

“We go from less to more, as a negotiation should go”

For his part, the international analyst Carlos Novoa indicated to The Commerce that the memorandum marks an important difference with respect to previous attempts at negotiation. In his opinion, the draft reflects a more gradual and less confrontational strategy that could facilitate a rapprochement between both parties.

“Before, maximalist positions were seen from the United States trying to impose things that it was known Iran was not going to give in to. Today we are going from less to more, as a negotiation should go”he pointed out.

For Novoa, the main difference is that The document does not propose a total victory for one of the two actors, but rather a formula for approximation that could open the door to broader agreements.

“It is not something that gives 100% victory to one side or the other, but rather a memorandum that brings together positions to have a first ceasefire agreement, at least, which would be important.”he stated.

Although the underlying nuclear issues remain pending, Novoa considered that, for now, Tehran would seem to obtain political advantages within the process due to the change in the US discourse and the prolongation of the conflict.

“The one who seems to be getting the most concessions is Iran.“, held.

He explained that the initial objectives set by Washington have been modified over the months because it did not obtain the expected results.

“He has not bowed to the power or the regime of the ayatollahs in Iran; On the contrary, they have been given a certain respite that makes them have a more solid position”, Indian.

Despite appreciating the diplomatic progress, Novoa warned that any understanding of this type continues to be vulnerable to new episodes of tension.

“It is a fragile agreement; Anything one side or the other does can generate a spark that ignites the conflict again.”he pointed out.

However, he stressed that even a temporary agreement could be valuable because of the political space it would offer to continue negotiating.

“If it is possible to sign, even if it is precarious, it saves time, but it must also be said that it is not an agreement that gives a medium-term guarantee.”accurate.

Novoa considered that the objections expressed by Israel are not a surprise, because Tel Aviv has historically maintained a critical position towards any understanding with Tehran.

“For Israel, any agreement with Iran is a danger to its security”, he stated.

He explained that the Israeli perception is that Tehran could take advantage of a negotiation to relieve pressures while strengthening its strategic capabilities.

“That’s how the Israelis see it; that’s why they don’t want any kind of agreement for the future.””, he stated.