So much Putin as Zelensky have congratulated trump for his victory in the November 5 elections. The second even spoke with the tycoon by phone.
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Under the motto of “America first”Trump announced during the campaign that will order a withdrawal of the United States presence in the world. Analysts assume that This new strategy will affect the military aid you receive Ukraine from Washington, which has allocated $108 billion since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022.
A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th Mechanized Brigade fires a 152mm 2s5 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions at an undisclosed location near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region. (AFP).
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Given the lack of details on the strategy of trump to achieve peace in Ukrainesome American analysts who support the president-elect maintain that A negotiation would be sought to declare an armistice on the current battle front line, which in practice would mean annexation to Russia from part of eastern Ukraine.
That is precisely what it pursues Putin as conditions for a peace negotiation. Last June he listed them, and repeated them again later.
For its part, Zelensky He has said during an interview with Sky News that he wants to work directly with Trump, and that he is open to his ideas.
Zelensky He added that his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, will travel to the United States as soon as possible to hold several meetings, including with the person elected by trump to be special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.
CNN indicated that Kellogg is in favor of a ceasefire and peace talks between Moscow and kyiv, which would include security guarantees for Ukraine as protection against future Russian invasions.
Putin’s harsh conditions for peace
Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses a Security Council meeting via video conference in Moscow on November 8, 2024. (Photo by Vyacheslav PROKOFYEV/POOL/AFP).
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Putin demands that Ukraine withdraw completely withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian territories that Russia annexed since he launched his invasion. These are Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
The war in Ukraine on December 2, 2024. (AFP).
He also wants Ukraine renounces its intention to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) before peace talks could begin. and the demilitarization of that country.
In addition, it seeks recognition of the annexed peninsula of Crimea as Russian territory.
Putin raised that all economic sanctions be lifted that the West has imposed on Russia since the war began.
Ukraine has described Putin’s conditions as unacceptableespecially those related to the renunciation of their territory.
The president Zelensky recently acknowledged that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to end the war and ensure that occupied territories are returned to it, including Crimea.
Putin wants Ukraine to capitulate
In this photo taken and released by the Ukrainian Emergency Service on November 28, 2024, Ukrainian rescuers prepare to load the remains of a Russian Kh-55 cruise missile onto a truck. (AFP).
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This week, the Financial Times reported that Prominent voices within the Russian news space emphasize that Putin is not interested in a negotiated solution to the war in Ukraine that would result in anything less than the total capitulation of that country.
The Financial Times interviewed the Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeevclose to the Kremlin, orthodox nationalist and founder of the ultranationalist milieu Tsargradwho said that Putin will probably reject any peace negotiations plan that trump presented to him, unless he takes into account the Russia’s “security concerns.”
Malofeev stated that the Kremlin will only consider peace negotiations with the administration trump if the Republican reverses the US policy that allows Ukraine use long-range weapons provided by the West to attack Russia, and “depose” President Zelensky from office.
According to Malofeev, Trump must also agree to meet with Putin to discuss the situation in Ukraine, future European security, the conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s growing alliance with China. Putin may intend to use that meeting to extract future US political concessions from Trump on these issues, the oligarch noted.
Malofeev also stated that the war in Ukraine has helped strengthen Russia’s relations with China, Iran and North Korea and revitalized Russia’s economy and defense industry. Russia.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)the interview with Malofeev indicates that the Kremlin is not interested in good faith negotiations and rather is bent on destroying the Ukrainian State by military means.
Regarding the relevance of Malofeev’s word, the ISW stated that the oligarch has used his Tsargrad medium to promote Kremlin narratives that justify the invasion and occupation of Ukraine, and remains an open supporter of Putin.
“International law protects Ukraine”
Civilians dressed in military uniforms take part in a military training organized by Ukrainian soldiers in kyiv, November 23, 2024. (Photo by Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP).
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For Andrés Gómez de la Torrespecialist in defense and intelligence issues, The panorama is complex for a possible direct bilateral negotiation between the governments of Moscow and kyivdespite the announcements of trump to distance itself from the policy that the Democratic administration of Joe Biden has had, which is focused on total support for Ukraine through the delivery of war logistics.
“There are very complicated points because the parties have irreducible positions. The crux of the Russian side and Putin’s position is that Ukraine renounce its membership in NATO, which has been one of the issues that has made the special military operation or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Was “a very sensitive political issue that affected the last major offensive, beyond that of 2014”, said Gómez de la Torre.
“The Russian position is also that, although it controls parts of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, there are still Ukrainian troops, so it demands that they withdraw before a possible negotiation. “Russia also suggests that Ukraine be demilitarized, in the sense of assuming the status of a state of perpetual neutrality, as Sweden and Finland were at some point before joining NATO.” Gómez de la Torre listed.
“I think that in the long run the negotiations are going to be very difficult, and what can be foreseen is that more than a peace agreement, there will probably be a ceasefire line, a kind of red ceasefire line, but no necessarily of peace, where there are no military clashes. But this does not inhibit the possibility of hybrid war modalities existing, these experimental wars like the one that Russia proposed to Estonia, from the point of view of cybersecurity and cyberdefense.”
Gómez de la Torre considers that For Zelensky and Ukraine, giving in to Russian demands would be the chronicle of a defeat foretold. “Ukraine is sheltering itself in the principles of international law related to the non-recognition of the use of force in matters of annexations and territorial acquisitions.”
