Trump and Xi face to face: What is at stake at the summit that could redefine the relationship between the US and China?

trump you plan to visit China from May 13 to 15, after having postponed a previous summit precisely because of the war in Iran.

SEE ALSO: “Reality forced Trump to abandon his maximalist stance towards Iran”: the background of the memorandum for the end of the war

China He already announced on Thursday that The Taiwan issue is a necessary condition to ensure stable, healthy and sustainable relations with USA

While the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, confirmed that At the summit there will be discussion about Taiwan.

These are the main topics on the agenda:

• 1. The trade war and tariffs

The economic issue will be central at the summit. Both governments seek to avoid a further escalation of the new trade war that began after Trump’s return to the White House.

Among the most important points are: the possible extension of the temporary trade truce, the reduction or relaxation of some tariffs, the access of American companies to the Chinese market, Chinese purchases of American agricultural products such as soybeans, meat and poultry, and possible agreements for the sale of Boeing airplanes to China.

• 2. Rare earths and technology

The United States wants to secure the supply of Chinese strategic minerals —especially rare earths—, which are essential for the technological and military industries. In exchange, China seeks relief from US restrictions on semiconductorsexports of advanced chips, and technological controls applied by Washington.

The most geopolitically sensitive issue will be Taiwan. According to reports prior to the summit, China wants Washington to reduce political and military support for the island, with Beijing also pressuring the US to modify its language on Taiwanese independence.

China considers Taiwan —an island self-governed since 1949— as an inalienable part of its territory and has repeatedly warned that it does not rule out the use of force to achieve its reunification under Chinese control.

• 4. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

The war with Iran has changed the international context and will be a key issue. The United States wants Chinese cooperation to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, provide stability in energy markets and exert indirect pressure on Tehran.

China has strong energy and trade ties with Iran, so it can become a key player in any regional agreement.

• 5. Security and strategic rivalry

Also on the table will be the South China Sea, military competition in Asia, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, economic sanctions and China’s relations with Russia and North Korea.

The trade war and Iran among the most sensitive issues

For the international analyst Francesco Tucci, professor of Political Sciences and International Relations at the UPC, despite the relevance of the summit, There are few signs that both powers will be able to reach substantive agreements in the short term.

In dialogue with The Commerce, Tucci recalled that The relationship between the United States and China has been strained since Trump’s first term, especially due to the trade war and tariffs imposed by both economies. Added to this is the new international scenario after the crisis with Irana country where China maintains strategic interests linked to oil.

“This meeting may also be special because of the relationship with Iran, because China is a key partner of Iran: it buys Iranian oil and maintains an important commercial exchange”he explained.

Likewise, he pointed out that in The West persists suspicions about indirect support from China and Russia to Iran through dual-use technology and materials.

Despite this, the specialist considered it difficult for the meeting to produce decisive results. “I don’t have much faith in this meeting”he stated. “We have to be pragmatic and realistic. We know Trump’s position, which is quite temperamental: one day he praises China and then completely changes his tone.”

“I don’t know if this meeting can effectively promote progress in the Iranian crisis,” he warned. ““Everything could end with rigid positions, without concessions, and remain just another meeting”.

According to Tucci, One of Beijing’s main objectives will be to avoid a further escalation of the trade war and seek an economic understanding with Washington.

“It is likely that China will try to negotiate without escalating the trade war and will seek a more favorable term”held.

For its part, Andrés Gómez de la Torrespecialist in defense and intelligence issues, agreed that The summit will be marked by caution and low expectations regarding the possibility of reaching far-reaching agreements.

“The general idea is not to make the relationship worse, but to stabilize it and avoid traumatic breakups. So, the objective will not be so much to reach great agreements, but to try to stabilize the relationship and not let it deteriorate further,” pointed to The Commerce.

Gómez de la Torre maintained that the main point on the agenda will be the trade war and tariff tensions promoted by Washington against Beijing.

“What China intends is precisely to slow down this trade war, reduce it, not deactivate it completely,” he stated. “China seeks tariff reductions and breaking export restrictions.”

The analyst also indicated that China could use economic incentives to ease tensions, including a possible massive purchase of American aircraft.

“There is a large purchase of up to 500 Boeing aircraft in the making. China could somehow alleviate American pressures by entering heavily into purchases of transport aircraft from the North American company Boeing.”, he commented.

At the geopolitical level, Gómez de la Torre pointed out that One of the most delicate issues will be China’s relationship with Iran and Russia.

“The United States is very concerned about possible Chinese military assistance to Iran”held.

As he explained, doubts persist about the level of Chinese support for Tehran, particularly in technological and military matters. Furthermore, he considered that Beijing maintains a pragmatic and flexible international strategy.

“China has historically practiced a pendulum foreign policy. It condemned the operations carried out by the United States against Iran, but it also condemned Iranian attacks against Gulf countries and has demanded reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” Indian.

Likewise, he pointed out that Washington will likely seek to pressure China to limit ties with Iran and Russiaalthough he considered it unlikely that Beijing would substantially modify its position.

Taiwan and China’s long-term strategy

Tucci He considered it unlikely that the United States would make major concessions regarding Taiwanan issue considered a red line by Beijing.

“The theme of Taiwan It’s pretty simple: I don’t think the United States will make concessions for now.”he pointed out. In his opinion, Trump’s strategy will continue to focus on tariff pressure as a negotiating tool. “It threatens very high tariffs and then negotiates and reduces them. But the economic interdependence between both powers is enormous,” he explained.

“China is developing a very slow, patient strategy on Taiwan. There is a long-range political objective and that is evident”he commented.

For this reason, he considered it unlikely that the Taiwanese issue will register substantial changes at this summit, although he warned that it will continue to be one of the main sources of tension between both powers.

Along the same lines, Gómez de la Torre maintained that “The issue of Taiwan is also fundamental, since we have a latent tension under the principle of reunification defended by China.”

Added to this is Chinese concern about the US military presence in Asia and Western technological advance in strategic areas such as artificial intelligence.

The risk of a meeting without concrete agreements

Tucci warned that, If both sides maintain their current positions, the meeting could end without concrete results.

“It is very likely that these negotiations will end with nothing done,” held. “The positions for now are quite rigid and it depends a lot on how much Trump is willing to negotiate. If he doesn’t really want to negotiate, it will be very difficult to fix things.”

In the analyst’s opinion, An eventual failure of the summit could prolong international economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

“If the same dynamics continue, we will not have relevant changes and that can become a problem”he concluded.

Along the same lines, Gómez de la Torre considered that both powers will seek to apply a strategy of “short steps” to avoid a further escalation of tensions.

“A kind of diplomacy of short, but occasionally effective steps will be articulated to slow down both commercial and political tensions”he stated.

However, he warned that The scenario will continue to be marked by deep mutual distrust.

The analyst highlighted that a structural dispute for global leadership persists behind the negotiations.

“The war and the confrontation of hegemonic competition between China and the United States is under the table. That is the reality,” Indian.