This is how Iran prepares for a possible war with the United States and the military support it requests from Russia and China

On February 24, units of the IRGC Ground Forces carried out maneuvers at the Madinah ol Munawarah operational base, located in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan province, as well as on unspecified islands in the Persian Gulf. The base is located near the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, key maritime passage through which approximately one fifth of the oil traded in the world transits.

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According to an analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), The islands mentioned would be the Nazeat Islands, located to the west of the strait and home to IRGC facilities. These positions would allow Tehran to project power and eventually hinder shipping in the event of a regional escalation.

In recent weeks, senior Iranian commanders have warned that they could attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for a possible US bombing. In that context, The exercise would have focused on “coast-to-sea fire” operations, aimed at neutralizing vessels that approach the Iranian coastline.

The maneuvers included the use of drones to identify targets and Shahed attack drones for neutralization. Likewise, Iranian officials reported that new missile systems were used and both offensive and defensive electronic warfare scenarios were simulated.

Days before, on February 16, the IRGC Navy carried out the “Intelligent Control of the Strait of Hormuz” exercise, during which – according to a Turkish media report on February 21 – A naval version of the “Seyed-3” surface-to-air missile was launched. The system would be designed to offer a “regional air defense umbrella” to advanced vessels such as the Shahid Soleimani class, strengthening the anti-aircraft protection capability of the Iranian fleet in Gulf waters.

Trump demands that Iran negotiate the elimination of its nuclear and ballistic missile programssomething that Tehran rejects. As a measure of pressure, Washington has carried out the largest military deployment in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq, with two aircraft carriers, several destroyers and dozens of fighter jets.

Iran and the United States will hold a third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Thursday. The two previous meetings did not produce results.

The international journalist and analyst Carlos Novoa said to The Commerce that Iran would have the ability to close or destabilize maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuzbut only temporarily. “I could do it for a couple of days, maybe two or three, no more,” He maintained, noting that USA It has sufficient military power to quickly neutralize any offensive or blockade attempt by the Iranian regime.

Still, Novoa indicated that even a brief interruption would have a strong global economic impact, given that a substantial part of the world’s oil circulates through that route.

For Andrés Gómez de la Torrespecialist in defense and intelligence issues, Iran faces a possible conflict with the United States from a “defensive and asymmetric” logic, marked by a conception of a war of resistance and by the limitations of a military apparatus that, according to what he claims, was severely weakened after the 12-day war with Israel in June of last year.

In his opinion, the Iranian defensive system was “heavily hit” by Israel, as well as by intelligence actions attributed to Mossad and other agencies. That combination of attacks and sabotage, he explained, It left Tehran with “slowed down” capabilities, difficult to rebuild in a few months.

In that scenario, Iran would opt for a strategy of attrition and indirect responserelying on its experience in the so-called “ring of fire”, that is, the network of non-state actors that make up the so-called Resistance Axis. This structure could activate parallel fronts and increase the risk of a regionalization of the conflictwith indirect actions against Israel.

He Strait of Hormuz It would continue to be – according to the analyst – a strategic pressure letter in the event of an escalation.

Iran seeks military support from Russia and China

Iran has also intensified its negotiations with its allies Russia and Chinawhich at the same time are Washington’s main strategic adversaries, in an attempt to strengthen their military capabilities.

As revealed by the Financial Times on February 22, citing leaked Russian documents and sources familiar with the deal, Tehran signed a contract with Moscow in December 2025 to acquire 500 Verba man-portable air defense systems, along with 2,500 9M336 infrared-guided missiles.designed to intercept drones, cruise missiles and low-flying aircraft.

The request would have been requested just days after the war with Israel, a conflict that revealed Iran’s defensive weaknesses.

In parallel, the Reuters agency reported on February 24 that Iran is “close” to closing a deal with China for the purchase of CM-302 anti-ship cruise missiles. According to six sources with knowledge of the negotiations, Tehran is also holding talks with Beijing to acquire man-portable anti-aircraft systems, anti-ballistic weapons and even anti-satellite capabilities. Although these negotiations began two years ago, they accelerated drastically after the confrontation with Israel.

For the ISW, the background to these negotiations is clear: Iran is trying to plug critical gaps in its air defense network. However, he indicated that the Verba systems cannot replace the Russian S-300s that Israel destroyed in attacks carried out in April and October 2024. Moscow, for its part, has been reluctant to transfer the more advanced S-400s to Tehran, presumably because it needs them to sustain its own war in Ukraine.

For Novoa, Search for Russian anti-aircraft systems and Chinese missiles reveals Iranian attempt to rebuild an air force and defense systems damaged in the war with Israel.

However, Novoa relativizes the scope of that cooperation. Although Russia and China will maintain diplomatic support for Tehran and criticize Washington in international forums, they will not risk a direct confrontation, so “They are not going to help Iran with weapons”.

Novoa indicated that Moscow remains focused on the war in Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin maintains channels of dialogue with Donald Trump. While Beijing prioritizes its long-term strategy and the delicate balance around Taiwan, in addition to its structural competition with the United States.

“In realpolitik, neither Russia nor China are going to risk everything they have to defend Iran“Novoa concluded.

For his part, Gómez de la Torre stressed that although Iran has strengthened military cooperation with Russia—a country to which it transferred drone technology that is key today on the Ukrainian front—bilateral agreements do not include reciprocal defense clauses, unlike the pacts that Moscow maintains with North Korea.

Russia, Gómez de la Torre added, has been reluctant to supply S-400 anti-aircraft systems to Iran and, although it offered Sukhoi-35 fighters, it did so in limited quantities in the face of the air-naval power that the United States could deploy in the region.

This Russian caution would be linked not only to its own military needs in the war against Ukraine, but also to its political calculation against Trump’s position, who has raised conditions for an eventual negotiated solution to the conflict with the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. Direct involvement in favor of Tehran could complicate these balances, the analyst emphasized.

In the case of ChinaGómez de la Torre considered that Beijing would also act prudently. Beyond possible technological support, he would prioritize his own strategic agenda and the management of his tensions with Washington before committing himself frontally to the defense of the Islamic Republic.

In summary, for Gómez de la Torre, Iran is preparing to resist more than to plan a conventional war: with diminished capabilities, limited external support and a commitment to asymmetric deterrence as the main tool in the face of an eventual clash with the United States.