This is how China helps Iran in the war, according to US intelligence

According to The New York Times, the United States intelligence agencies have obtained information indicating that in recent weeks, China could have sent a shipment of portable missiles (MANPADS) to Iran for its conflict with the US and Israel.

The portable missiles Fired from the shoulder they are capable of shooting down low-flying aircraft.

Officials who spoke with that newspaper said that the information is still inconclusive and that there is no evidence that Chinese missiles were used against American or Israeli forces during the war.

The report also maintains that China is secretly taking a more active roleby allowing companies to supply components, fuel and dual-use materials key for the Iranian military industry.

If the information is confirmed, it would be a significant escalation and a sign of more explicit support in the conflict.

The New York Times points out that the information about China occurs in parallel with the certainty that US intelligence has that Russia has provided satellite information to Iran to facilitate their attacks, which reinforces the idea of ​​indirect support from rival powers to increase the military cost to the Americans.

For its part, The Financial Times published on Wednesday that At the end of 2024, Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellitewhich gave the Persian country a significant new ability to identify and attack US military bases in the current war.

According to Iranian military documents leaked to said media, The Chinese satellite TEE-01B was received by the Aerospace Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps at the end of 2024after its launch from China, and, once operational, it was used to monitor key military installations in USA.

The Financial Times said it analyzed images taken by the satellite in March, before and after attacks on US locations in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Iraqwhich coincide with the surveillance work around the dates of the bombings claimed by Iran against facilities in those countries.

The TEE-01B is capable of capturing images with a resolution of approximately half a metercomparable to commercially available high-resolution Western satellite records, the report notes.

For the Financial Times, Chinese satellite represents significant improvement in Iran’s capabilitiessince it would allow it to improve the identification of aircraft, vehicles and changes in infrastructure.

China is Iran’s main trading partner and one of his most influential allies. Publicly he has maintained neutrality and has condemned several times the war started by the United States and Israel on February 28.

This Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said in a message on Truth Social that China “has agreed not to send weapons to Iran.”

Trump assured that “China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am also doing it for them and for the world.”

In his comment, the Republican told his counterpart Xi Jinping: “BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to. Much better than anyone else.”

Trump is scheduled to visit China on May 14-15 and meet with Xi.

China’s possible double game in the war

The international analyst Francesco Tucciprofessor of Political Science and International Relations at the UPC, considers it possible that China is providing indirect support to Iran in the warespecially in matters of intelligence, although he warns that there is no conclusive evidence.

“More than direct military support, intelligence cooperation would not be surprising”he points out, underscoring that this type of covert assistance is consistent with the effectiveness shown by Iran in recent attacks against US positions in the Middle East region.

For Tucci, this scenario does not yet constitute a proxy war like the one in Ukraine, but it does reveal a growing involvement of powers such as China and Russia, interested in preventing the fall of the Iranian regime.

In the case of China, he explains, the link is strategic: it depends on Iranian oil and considers Iran a key ally in the Middle East, which would explain an eventual exchange of information to sustain its military capacity.

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The analyst also highlights the apparent contradiction in China’s position: while it is promoting diplomatic initiatives for a negotiated solution – including a mediation plan – it cannot allow Iran to be defeated. “China is pushing for pacification, but at the same time it is interested in maintaining the regime”he remarks.

Regarding the risks for Beijing, Tucci relativizes a possible direct escalation with Washington. He points out that, if support is confirmed, the response of Donald Trump’s administration could focus more on the economic field – such as the tightening of the trade war – than on an open military confrontation. “First you have to prove it; for now we talk about inferences,” emphasizes.

In this context, the planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping could be marked by the conflict in Iran. Tucci warns that, in the absence of a quick solution to the war, the issue has a high probability of becoming one of the central axes of the bilateral meeting.

For its part, Andrés Gómez de la Torre, specialist in defense and intelligence issues, maintains that China faces a complex scenario in the Iran war, where its foreign strategy combines public neutrality with possible indirect support. As he explains, Beijing has applied “covert neutralism” in recent conflicts, similar to that observed in the war between Russia and Ukraine, where, despite declaring itself neutral, it provided technological inputs linked to the development of drones.

He considers that possible Chinese support for Iran cannot be ruled out, although he warns that this would be limited and not necessarily direct. “If there is a transfer, it would be punctual, not strategic,” he states, noting that it could include short-range anti-aircraft missiles such as the MANPADS denounced by the United States, or inputs to strengthen capabilities in drones and ballistic technology.

Gómez de la Torre also highlights the role of US intelligence, which, he says, has become more “aggressive and intrusive” under the Trump administration and the direction of John Ratcliffe, which would explain the detection of possible movements of external support for Tehran.

Likewise, it highlights that China’s behavior could follow a pattern similar to that of Russia, which – according to reports – would have provided image intelligence (IMINT) to Iran to identify strategic objectives, while avoiding the direct shipment of weapons.

For the analyst, the key factor is China’s strategic interest in the region: it is Iran’s main trading partner, it depends on the oil that transits through the Strait of Hormuz and, at the same time, maintains close ties with Arab countries in the Gulf affected by the conflict. “China is in a very complex dilemma,” he summarizes, warning that any support would move in a delicate balance between its economic, energy and geopolitical interests.