The most won a presidential election for the first time in Bolivia in December 2005. That time, Evo Morales obtained the 53.7% of the votesbecoming the First indigenous president of the country.
Newsletter return to the world
Morales The position assumed the January 22, 2006marking the beginning of a new political cycle in Boliviacharacterized by a turn to the leftwith a strong state prominence in the economy and with constitutional reforms promoted by the president. The last representative of the MAS in power is Luis Arcewhich must leave the presidency in November this year.
The president of Bolivia Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales lead a pro -government march towards La Paz, in Caracollo, on November 23, 2021. (Photo of Aizar Raldes / AFP).
/
The struggle for the presidential candidacy caused the break between Morales and Arce. The second was left with the legal status of the MAS, but resigned to go to re -election because the economic crisis He made unfeasible that he can succeed. In his replacement he appointed Eduardo del Castilloits former Minister of Government.
While in the case of Moralesthe Constitutional Court determined that The Magna Carta forbids again to postulate, So he could not register his candidacy.
The favorites
Samuel Doria Medina shows her thumb stained after casting her vote at an Electoral College of La Paz on October 12, 2014.
/
Just over a month of the elections have been known Two surveys that place the right leading the preferences.
The first survey elaborated for the multimedia group Duty and the initiative I choose Ubica the businessman first Samuel Doria Medina (Unit) CN 24% of voting intention. The former president is followed Jorge Tuto Quiroga (Free), with 22.07%. Third is the desident of the MAS Andrónico Rodríguez with 14.69%. The candidate of the MAS, Eduardo del Castillo, It has only 1.69% intention to vote.
In this study, the white vote obtained 9.84% and the undecided 3%.
Jorge Tuto Quiroga during a press conference on national elections in Honduras on December 17, 2017. (Photo by Orlando Sierra / AFP).
/
Another recently revealed survey is that of the Capture Consulting company, disseminated by the Red Uno and Chain A. channels in it Doria It also carries the lead with 19.6%, followed by Quiroga with 16.6% and Rodríguez It remains third with 13.7%. Del Castillo It is seventh with 1.4%. In this survey there are 15.5% of people who still do not know who to vote for.
Andrónico Rodríguez greets his supporters during his presentation as a presidential candidate for the Popular Alliance Party in La Paz, on May 19, 2025. (Photo of Aizar Raldes / AFP)
/
If the tendency of both surveys is maintained, There would be a second round on October 19 between Doria and Quiroga, both from the right. According to Bolivian electoral laws, in the first round wins who exceeds 50% of the vote. You can also win with 40%, provided there is a distance of 10 points with second place.
The reasons for the favoritism of the right and the worst time of the MAS
The Bolivian journalist Rafael Archondo indicated a Commerce That the right has great options to win, but noted that there is no strong candidate, unlike the past, when the most won with supermayories of more than 50%.
“The new scenario shows divided minoritieswhich points to that whoever wins must form a coalition government, which was the rule before the first triumph of Evo Morales “, He stressed.
About the only representative of the left with the possibility of going on the second round, Andrónico RodríguezArchondo said it is difficult to be imposed on an eventual ballot.
“He has had a very rugged campaign start, with many questions to his candidate for the vice presidency, but above all He has been marked by a very systematic attack by Evo Morales, who has already placed it on the list of traitors, Denying, in a sense, the possibility of endorsing votes. This strong criticism has subtracted a lot of support ”, Archondo said.
“So, Andrónicus is orphan of the support of who his mentor was And it is also unable to aspire to the vote of the traditional opposition, as an alternative to Evo Morales, because Andronón has not had a criticism of him. Is in a very complicated situation ”, He continued.
The international analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossian He also considered that The possibilities of the right to return to power are great, basically due to the disastrous economic management of the governments of the MAS.
“There is an increase in the intention to vote for the right, the first two add up to 40%. That support is an improvement with respect to the past, but The most shocking is the back of the leftand we must bear in mind that there are still many people who do not know who to vote for ”, Belaunde said Commerce.
The analyst said that in addition to the economic crisis, which implies lack of dollars and gasoline, The weakening of the MAS is also marked by the break between Arce and Morales.
Which social sectors are turning your back on the more? Archondo explained as of 2016, when Evo Morales He lost a referendum on indefinite re -election, it was already considered that there was a very strong opposition in Boliviawhich was based in urban spaces, but at the same time it was very divided. “The difficulty of the opposition is just concentrating its vote on a single candidate.”
“In Bolivia there is an opposition with many leadership leaders But there was a complete region, Santa Cruz, who opted for Luis Fernando Camacho ”Archondo recalled.
“I don’t know if in little more than a mes The opposition You can opt for a single option, ”he said.
What would a right -wing government be like?
Archondo explained that There is a consensus in Bolivia in which the economic model of the MAS cannot continuebut he noted that it is not clear what the exit is.
He said that If you win the right you should seek to form a coalition governmentbecause it does not have all the strength to change what it considers that it is wrong in the country.
“It will be a turn that will have many resistances, because there are many sectors in Bolivia that live in some way of a state prebendof the bonds, of social policy. A large number of public companies have been opened as part of an import industrialization and replacement plan. Many candidates are saying that these companies have to be closed. There is an urgent need for private investments, foreign investments. There is no natural resource that at this time can sustain that transition. Gas has practically exhausted, lithium has not entered production“Archondo said.
“That is to say, Bolivia is without economic alternatives. So It is very difficult to think about a model that is nothing other than to depend on the credits of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. There seems to be another alternative and that alternative we know that it is short -term, because the country needs more or less 1,000 million dollars to buy fuels. And this is thinking about doing it with debt and not with a productive substitution that can create wealth “he emphasized.
Archondo argued that it would be easier for the right to govern if there were, as happened in Argentina in the last choice, a very clear majority in favor of the opposition and, therefore, an overwhelming support for its plan.
The journalist said he sees Bolivia walking towards a stage similar to that of Peru, with a High political fragmentation.
For Belaunde, if you win the right, you could try to do Reforms like the liberalization of the energy sector (gas) and open the country to private and foreign investment, but remarked that will face social resistance and need political skill to implement them.
