The secret war came to light: what Saudi Arabia’s covert bombing of Iran entails

According to Reuters’ exclusive reporting, the Saudi attacks occurred in late March and were described by Western and Iranian officials as tit-for-tat retaliation operations after Iran launched drones and missiles against the Saudi kingdom.

LOOK HERE: “Reality forced Trump to abandon his maximalist stance towards Iran”: the background of the memorandum for the end of the war

The agency stressed that this is the first time that there is evidence that Saudi Arabia carried out direct military actions within Iran.

The operations were carried out by the Saudi Air Force. Reuters could not confirm what exactly the targets were attacked in Iran.

The United States and Israel bombed Iran on February 28which started the current war. In retaliation, Tehran attacked Washington’s allied countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, with missiles and dronesUnited Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, among others.

In addition to United States military bases, Iran also hit civilian sites, airports and oil and gas infrastructure in those countries.

Since April 7, a cease-fire ordered by the president of the United States donald trumpwhile negotiating with Iran to end the war.

According to Reuters, after retaliation by Saudi Arabia against Iranthere were intense diplomatic contacts that resulted in the number of Iranian attacks against Saudi soil decreasing drastically between the end of March and the beginning of April.

According to Western Reuters sources, the projectiles fired at Saudi Arabia in the days before the ceasefire came from Iraq and not from Iranindicating that Tehran had reduced direct attacks while its allied groups continued to operate.

One of the Iranian officials confirmed to Reuters that Tehran and Riyadh had agreed to reduce tension, and stated that the measure was intended to “cease hostilities, safeguard mutual interests and prevent escalation of tensions.”

The report also notes that The war exposed the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia despite its military alliance with Washingtonwhich would have pushed the kingdom to adopt a more aggressive stance towards Tehran.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have maintained an intense political, religious and strategic rivalry for decades over the leadership of the Middle East..

Iran is the main power of Shiite Islam since the Islamic revolution of 1979, while Saudi Arabia exerts influence as the main reference of Sunni Islam and custodian of the most sacred places of Islam. This competition has been reflected in regional conflicts such as the wars in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, where both countries have supported opposing sides through allied militias and armed groups, thus far avoiding a direct military confrontation between their forces.

The rivalry is also marked by the military weight of both powers. Iran has one of the greatest military capabilities in the region, with an extensive ballistic missile program, long-range drones and an extensive network of allied groups in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Iraq and Yemen.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, has one of the best-funded armies in the world. thanks to its oil revenues and has modern weapons acquired mainly from the United States and European countries, including advanced combat aircraft, anti-missile systems and a powerful air force.

While Tehran has opted for a strategy of asymmetric warfare and regional networks, Riyadh has historically depended on its military alliance with Washington to contain Iranian influence.

A historic rivalry that avoided a direct clash

The international journalist and analyst Carlos Novoaspecialized in Middle Eastern issues, warned that Saudi Arabia’s covert attacks against Iran represent a “worrying” fact and potentially historic in the dispute for regional leadership in the Middle East, because Both countries had avoided direct military confrontation for decades.

Novoa, who investigated the rivalry between both states in his master’s thesis at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (PUCP), explained to The Commerce that tension between Riyadh and Tehran deepened after the 1979 Islamic revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

“They have always been in a dispute for leadership in the region. Saudi Arabia represents the Sunni leadership and Iran the Shiite leadership,” held.

Novoa recalled that, historically, Both countries acted through indirect wars and allied groups in different regional scenarios, avoiding open confrontations between their armed forces.

“They have always acted through their proxies or their axes. This is the first time it has gone directly”he stated.

“A worrying scenario”

Although Novoa avoided stating that the episode constitutes an irreversible crisis, it does warned about the risk of a further escalation depending on the Iranian reaction.

“I don’t know if it is serious, that will depend on how Iran responds, but it is worrying at least,” he pointed out.

The analyst explained that the rivalry between both countries not only responds to geopolitical interests, but also to the religious and political struggle between the Saudi Sunni leadership and the Iranian Shiite leadership, which for decades has marked the balance of power in the Middle East.

A possible change in Saudi strategy

For Novoa, The attacks revealed by Reuters could represent a historic change in Saudi Arabia’s position towards Iran.

“Saudi Arabia has always tried to take care of itself, not to enter directly”he explained.

In that sense, He considered it possible that there has been pressure from the United States for Riyadh to assume a more active role in the regional confrontation.

“I would dare to speculate that there is pressure here from the United States and the Trump government so that Saudi Arabia, being a strategic ally, can intervene more directly,” Indian.

According to the specialist, the Saudi kingdom has traditionally preferred to maintain a containment strategy rather than openly engage in military operations against Iranian territory.

Why Saudi Arabia did not claim responsibility for the attacks

Novoa maintained that The secret nature of the operations would be related to Saudi fear of provoking a direct military response from Iran.

“Saudi Arabia knows that any action it takes will have a reaction,” he stated.

In his opinion, Riyadh would try to avoid a dynamic of permanent retaliation that could lead to an out-of-control regional conflict.

“They want to avoid a direct response from the Islamic Republic of Iran because that would become a permanent back and forth”he warned.

The risk of a regional war

The analyst also warned that The greatest danger is that Iran responds using allied groups or militias linked to Tehran in different Middle Eastern countries.

“The risk is always latent, especially if Iran responds in an organized manner and with proxies. There the situation could get much worse,” held.

However, Novoa considered that Washington will seek to avoid an open regional escalation that ends up directly involving the United States, Israel and the Gulf monarchies.

“The United States is going to try to avoid it because if this conflict escalates and directly involves Washington and Israel, Trump could pay an enormous political cost in the face of the November elections,” he concluded.