“The only thing Trump can offer Maduro is a safe exit from power in Venezuela”

SEE ALSO: What changes with the designation of the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization and what can happen with Maduro

“I will probably talk to him, I talk to a lot of people,” stated about a direct conversation with Ripe. He also noted that they could “have discussions” because “Venezuela wants to talk.”

On Wednesday, Trump reiterated that “could talk” with Maduro if that helps “save many lives.”

He added that Things can be done “by the good means, but also by the bad”, making it clear that, although there is a willingness to dialogue, does not rule out the use of military force in Venezuela.

When asked why talk to a person whom his administration has accused of being the leader of a terrorist organization, the Cartel of the SunsTrump responded: “I could talk to him, we’ll see.”

“A negotiation under coercion”

The political strategist José Vicente Carrasqueroprofessor of Political Science at Miami College, explains to The Commerce that it is key to understand that Conversing does not mean dialoguing or negotiating.. And what is happening today between Washington and Caracas does not fit into the first two categories. “Talking is exchanging ideas; dialogue implies a certain equality between the parties. But here there is no equality: there is a negotiation conditioned by force”,

The US military presence in Caribbeanhe adds, turns any contact into a process “by hook or by crook”a pressure that seeks to push Maduro towards an exit.

The expert recalls that for years the international community—and especially the United States— has offered security guarantees for a negotiated exit of Maduro. But the Venezuelan president, he assures, has always preferred to stay, convinced that his survival depends solely on him and his circle.

“For him, staying is safer than leaving”he points out. However, recent episodes—such as being abruptly removed from a room during an event, a gesture that went viral on video—would show that Maduro no longer fully controls his own securitywhich could push you to consider alternatives that you previously rejected.

Asked about whether USA I would agree to keep Ripe in power in exchange for strategic concessions such as oilCarrasquero rules out that possibility. He argues that Venezuelan oil is no longer a determining incentiveneither for its quality nor for its weight in a regional market widely supplied by other producers. “If this were for oil, the conflict would already be resolved”he ironizes.

The real focus for Washington, he says, is on the drug trafficking. The United States believes that Maduro “is not putting enough effort into stopping the flow of drugs,” and that concern, more than energy, is what structures the policy towards Venezuela. In that logic, the only viable offer that Ripe could put on the table would be a safe exit from powerwith guarantees of personal protection, he maintains.

He warns that the regime is not only Ripe. “If you remove Maduro, you are dismantling a complex organization, which involves cartels of drugs, irregular groups and networks that operate under cover in Venezuela”, explains. This network, he assures, has its own interests and could even pressure Maduro not to abandon power. “It is not convenient for those people that Maduro leaves. They could tell him: if you leave, we are doomed.”

Finally, the analyst anticipates that The United States will continue to escalate the pressurewithin what he describes as a diplomacy supported by military force. It does not rule out specific actions against centers linked to drugs in Venezuelawhich It would send a signal to Maduro that the threat is no longer just rhetoric. “Maduro is still in the ‘I don’t think they’ll do that’ phase, but that phase could end soon.”he concludes.

The Venezuelan political analyst and strategist Luis Toty Medina consider that what trump raises regarding Venezuela cannot be described as a dialogue or a conversation, but as “a negotiation under coercion”. The difference, he explains, is fundamental: “You talk with allies or friends, you dialogue with interlocutors; but when one of the parties has a fleet with attack capacity stationed in the Caribbean, we no longer talk about dialogue, but about a forced negotiation.”

In that sense, both parties have completely different objectives. Trump operates from pressure and deterrence; Mature, from survivalhe notes And behind the rhetoric of defending democracy, the expert maintains that the United States has a main purpose: convert Venezuela into a reliable energy supplier for the North American market.

“The United States does not have friends, it has interests”he summarizes. The key interest would be to break Caracas’ strategic alliances with China, Iran and Russia, reopen the stable flow of oil and gas to the United States and displace rival geopolitical influence in the region. “Freedom and democracy in Venezuela are a plus, not the main objectivel”says Medina.

From the White House, Trump frames any contact with Maduro under the guise of fighting a “terrorist organization” Medina maintains. After accusing him of leading a drug trafficking network, now the only way would be to negotiate, but “negotiate under pressure,” he insists.

At the other extreme, Medina says that Maduro is looking for something very different: time. “Maduro entered into a dynamic similar to that of an anonymous alcoholic: he does not think about surviving 20 years, he thinks about surviving 24 hours,” explains the analyst. The Venezuelan regime has used all previous negotiations to gain political oxygen, reduce international pressure and stay standing for another day. “That is their central objective: to remain in power tomorrow.”

What could Trump offer? Not the permanence of Ripe in power, says the expert, but a safe exit: personal guarantees, immunity, a destination to be asylum —like Turkey—and conditions that ensure that will not be detained or extradited. “Surely what the Trump administration is going to put on the table is an exit path, not its continuity.”

But that offer, he maintains, would hardly extend to the entire Chavista leadership. RipeMedina states, he would negotiate essentially for himself and his family. “I don’t see him asking for conditions for his entire environment. There won’t be room for everyone on the plane where he would go.”he concludes.

For his part, the ambassador Juan Alvarez Vita explains that trump opens to dialogue with Ripe because its military deployment in the Caribbean has limited international support.

For Álvarez Vita, this dynamic fits into a common strategy of the tycoon: corner first, talk later. But he warns that the United States acts today with an almost absolute margin, without paying much attention to international standards: “We have seen it in terms of tariffs, in domestic political decisions and in his foreign policy. Trump retreats when it suits him and advances when it suits him.”

In this context, it lists the economic and logistical fence that Washington has already imposed on Venezuela: air restrictions, maritime pressures and the ability to totally isolate the country if it so decides. Even considers that the possibility of military action is always present. “I don’t think this whole armed deployment is random. The United States has acted before without waiting for real authorization from the Security Council.”

Therefore, he doubts that the intention of trump be genuinely constructive: it could be, he says, a move to accelerate an outcome favorable to the United States. Even more so when the president needs show international triumphssomething that has not been achieved neither in Ukraine, nor with China and Taiwan, nor in the Middle East, he notes. “Trump needs victories, and a dialogue with Maduro could present it as an achievement, although it is not necessarily so.””, concludes Álvarez Vita.