Everything indicates that the nominee of the president-elect donald trump for Secretary of State, Cuban American Senator Marco Rubio, will pay close attention to Latin America, especially Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.
But you may also have to deal with two other potential conflict points: Bolivia and the Peru.
A new survey of 17 Latin American countries shows that Bolivia and the Peru They may be the most fragile democracies in Latin America.
The Latinobarómetro survey, which interviewed 19,214 people in 17 countries in the region, found that a surprising 90% of Bolivians and Peruvians They say they are dissatisfied with democracy. Only 10% of people in Bolivia and the Peru She said she was “very satisfied” or “satisfied” with the democracy of her country, or with their respective governments.
In comparison, 63% of Uruguayans, 50% of Mexicans, 45% of Argentines, 39% of Chileans and 28% of Brazilians said they were satisfied with democracy in their respective countries.
“Bolivia and the Peru “They are fertile ground for a populist leader or a dictator,” Marta Lagos, the Chilean pollster who conducted the regional study, told me. “Both countries show a serious deterioration of institutions, to the point that citizens desperately seek solutions at any price.”
These results do not surprise me. The economy of Bolivia is almost paralyzed in the middle of a political fight between the leftist president Luis Arce and his one-time mentor, the far-left former president Evo Morales.
Both dispute the leadership of the Movement towards Socialism party, and publicly support the dictatorships of Venezuela, Cuba and Iran. But Moraleswho during his presidency from 2006 to 2019 changed the laws to remain in power beyond his constitutional mandate, is trying to run for president again in 2025.
The coca growers movement of Morales has been blocking roads to protest a Constitutional Court ruling that bars the former president from running for a fourth term.
Additionally, a prosecutor filed charges of “human trafficking” against Morales on December 16 for allegedly having had sexual relations with a 14-year-old girl when he was president in 2015. The young woman had a son with Morales in 2016, as reported by the Bolivian Information Agency.
Meanwhile, the economic crisis of Bolivia it continues to worsen. Inflation has reached almost 10% in 2024, foreign exchange reserves have plummeted and there are growing electricity outages and shortages of fuel, milk, bread and other essential products.
In it PeruIn turn, political chaos is slowing economic growth. There would be more than 60 presidential candidates for the 2026 elections.
The problem with so many candidates is that the majority are centrists, who divide the moderate votes among themselves and allow extremist candidates from the right and left who have better organized parties to win.
That is what happened in the 2021 elections, which he won Pedro Castilloa candidate from a Marxist party who has since been constitutionally removed after attempting to dissolve the Congress.
Many of the political parties that present candidates in the Peru They are fronts for drug trafficking or other illegal organizations that seek to benefit from the confusion and have representation in the Congresssay political analysts.
I am somewhat more optimistic about the Peru what about Boliviabecause all recent Peruvian presidents, both right and left, have respected the independence of the Central Bank. He Central Bank of Peru It has been directed since 2006 by Julio Velarde, a respected economist who has managed to maintain economic stability. Economists joke that “The Peru It grows at night, when politicians sleep and Velarde works”.
Another reason to be cautiously optimistic about the Peru is that 72% of Peruvians believe that the market economy is the “only system” that leads to economic development. In comparison, only 56% of Argentines and 62% of Mexicans say they agree with that statement.
However, the new Latinobarómetro survey should raise alarm bells about Bolivia and the Peru. If only 10% of the population believes that democracy is working, it may be a sign of turbulent times ahead.
–Glossed and edited–
© El Nuevo Herald. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC
