The harsh restrictions that Chavismo imposes on released political prisoners and why nothing changed after the fall of Maduro in Venezuela

Ramón Guanipa, son of Juan Pablo Guanipaconfirmed on Tuesday that his father was taken to his home in Maracaibocapital of the state of Zulia, for serve house arrest.

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“My father is still unjustly imprisoned, because a house is still a prison. and we demand his full freedom and that of all political prisoners,” Ramón stated in a message published in X. He also thanked the efforts of the American Government “for his work in favor of the freedom of Venezuela and all political prisoners.”

Guanipaformer deputy and very close collaborator of the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machadowas released on Sunday after being detained since May 2025.

Once out of prison, Guanipa declared to the press to advocate for reconciliation in Venezuelabut “with the truth.” He said his nation “has the right to be a free country.” He also participated in a caravan of motorcyclists towards El Helicoidea detention center for political prisoners where relatives of the captives hold a vigil to demand their release.

However, during the night he was detained by “unidentified men” who intercepted his vehicle.

His family and his own Machado They denounced that the leader was “kidnapped” by the regime and demanded his release.

Furthermore, it was published release certificate where restrictions were indicated such as the prohibition of leaving the country and his appearance in court every 30 days, nothing more.

According to him Criminal ForumSince January 8, 426 political prisoners have been released by the regime Rodriguez. However, just like Guanipathese do not have full freedom.

There are 644 political prisoners left in prison, including 185 soldiers, 80 women and a teenager.

Released, not free

Gonzalo Himiobvice-president of the Penal Forum, explained to The Commerce that what is happening in Venezuela It is not a full release of political prisoners, but releases under strict judicial conditions.

“These people get out of jail, but are still subject to precautionary measures”he remarked. According to Himiob, criminal proceedings remain openwhich allows the State to maintain permanent control over those released from prison.

Among the most frequent restrictions, he detailed, are the ban on leaving the countrythe obligation to appear periodically before the courts and, in some cases, the prohibition of public expressionwhether in the media or through social networks.

This situation implies – he warned – that Those released can return to prison at any timeif the Government considers that they have failed to comply with any of those conditions. “The same thing that happened to Juan Pablo Guanipa could happen to everyone”.

The pressure of Diosdado Cabello

The political scientist Luis Nunes agreed that the releases of political prisoners They do not constitute real freedombut are part of a scheme of restrictive precautionary measures that keep those released under state control.

For Nunes, this scheme is equivalent to a censorship and political control mechanismmore than a policy of justice.

When referring specifically to the case of Juan Pablo GuanipaNunes described the process as a “fictitious liberation”.

In his opinion, the regime’s decisions regarding Guanipa do not respond solely to the president. Delcy Rodriguezbut to internal pressures exerted by Diosdado Haircurrent Minister of the Interior and to whom he attributes a key role in the validity and tightening of these measures.

“I believe that Diosdado Cabello puts pressure on the president in exchange for her support. But I think that Diosdado Cabello’s hours are numbered”he said.

According to the analyst, Guanipa’s new arrest occurred after the opposition leader broke his silenceoffered public statements and carried out visible political activities in Caracas, which – he stated – generated alarm in the ruling party faced with the risk of dismantling the “narrative of peace” that the government is trying to project.

Nunes stressed that this pattern of conditional releases it’s not new and that reproduces practices already seen during the Maduro government. “In this aspect, nothing has changed in Venezuela. It is not a real transition, it is a deception”held.

He also questioned the content of the amnesty law under discussion in the National Assemblypointing out that it would be designed to benefit Chavismo and exclude key sectors, such as imprisoned soldiers, which contradicts the principle of equality before the law. In that sense, he recalled that he himself Guanipa He demanded that any justice process “be the same for everyone.”

Nunes considered that the United States will increase political and diplomatic pressure if these practices persist, both in terms of human rights as in the debate on the electoral schedule. However, he warned that a forced acceleration of the electoral process could be counterproductive if the stages of dismantling Chavismo and stabilizing the country’s institutions and economy are not completed beforehand.

“I have the impression that the United States is going to press harder through the head of mission. And if Diosdado Cabello gets spoiled, they’re going to come in and grab him. I don’t have the slightest doubt”, he indicated.

Repeated violation of due process

The Venezuelan political analyst Leandro Rodríguez Linárez stated that the case of Guanipa reflects the persistence of arbitrary practices in the handling of political prisoners and the absence of guarantees of due process.

He remembered that many of the arrests of political prisoners were openly illegal, carried out without court orderswithout respect for due process and, in numerous cases, for parapolice actors such as the so-called collectives. “It is not even clear why they were imprisoned, nor under what criteria they are later released”he pointed out.

For Rodríguez, the decision to grant house arrest to Guanipa responds to the international pressure, particularly from the United Statesabout the Venezuelan government.

However, he warned that what happened with Guanipa also functioned as a internal political warning sign: “a message from the regime to remember that it is still in power, although forced to recalculate due to the external tutelage under which it operates today.”

The analyst argued that this pattern of conditional releases—including tacit or explicit prohibitions on speaking publicly— does not differ from that applied during the Maduro government. “It is a dark process, typical of Chavismo. There has been no real change in the way of incarcerating or releasing”, he stated.

Regarding the broader political scene, he noted that The United States has endorsed a transition period led by Chavismounder the premise that it still controls weapons and institutions. This process, he explained, is developed in stages, with quarterly evaluations, aimed first at modifying key laws, generating economic stability and gradually dismantling structures of Chavista power.

Regarding the electoral calendar, Rodríguez stressed that there is no defined schedulealthough Washington has reiterated that elections are inevitable. “Marco Rubio has been more emphatic than other actors that Chavismo cannot remain in power”he said, in contrast to internal statements by Chavista leaders who seek to delay the process.

Finally, when referring to the debate on the control of the Armed Forces in an eventual transition, the analyst recognized that there is resistance within the military establishment, which he described as deeply politicized and committed to illicit activitiesaccording to international reports. In this context, he stated that the objective of the transition process would be rebuild a more institutional Armed Forcesso that a future elected government can exercise effective authority without facing an immediate breakdown.