The controversial “great and beautiful law” of Trump: why can you divide your party and what does it mean for the US economy?

“I’m sorry, but I can’t stand it anymore. This bill of Congress full of superfluous expenses is a disgusting abomination,” wrote the ex -male billionaire of the Trump administration a month ago in X.

The public debt of USA It amounts to 36.2 billion dollars in total and it is estimated that the application of the Trump plan would add another 3.3 billion, well above the 2.4 billion dollars that calculated the project of republican law.

As indicated The New York Times At the end of June, such estimates did not take into account additional costs of indebtedness, so the debt generated could amount to 4 billion dollars. One of the great fears that are around the Budget Law is that it ends up leading to public debt to double in the next 10 years in a pessimistic scenario.

What does the law point out?

The “great and beautiful law” of Trump It seeks to add a huge investment for its military and fight against immigration plans.

It is estimated that the investment in national security would be about 350,000 million dollars, being one of its emblematic projects the creation of the so -called golden dome, a defense system inspired by the Antimisiles of Israel shield known as the iron dome.

The Customs Immigration and Control Service (ICE) and other related entities will be some of the main beneficiaries of spending, as the Government will allocate $ 80,000 million to strengthen the immigration control system.

It is expected that these agencies will considerably increase their number of troops and the ICE would receive a departure close to 30,000 million dollars and another 46,000 million would be destined to the construction of the border wall that Trump has promised since his first government, in addition to the management and surveillance of this border security system.

The economic plan also provides cuts from various taxes such as those taxing the tips and extra hours of workers, in addition to dispensing for older adults who win an amount less than $ 75,000 a year.

Republicans claim that tax reduction will encourage economic growth, which would make indebtedness viable.

By counterpart, the management of Trump He hopes that all this huge expense will be compensated with a series of tax cuts in various government programs, including some of great social importance.

The Medicaid Health Insurance program would be one of the main affected together with the SNAP, a program that delivers food coupons for the low -income population.

The estimates indicate that almost 12 million of the 70 million beneficiaries of Medicaid would be out of the program and without health coverage with the measure, the poorest population being essentially affected.

Without unanimity and in mid -doubt

The new US Budget Law is so far one of the measures that has generated the greatest division within the State. The project was approved by the Senate in a 51-50 vote, which was only resolved with the aiming vote of JD Vance, vice president and trusted man of Donald Trump.

Despite the insistence and pressure of the Head of State, three Republican senators voted against the initiative: Susan Collins, Thom Tillis and Rand Paul.

In the House of Representatives of Congress the vote was also narrow and resolved with a difference of 218-214 votes. Although a group of legislators from the Lower House was not convinced to approve the measure, they ended up yielding to Trump’s demands, anxious to promulgate the law in the midst of the celebrations of July 4, Independence Day.

Thomas Massie and Brian Fitzpatrick were the only republican representatives who voted against, despite the fact that the advisors of Trump They tried to convince all Dubitative legislators one by the last moment.

The approval of the “great and beautiful law” is not only considered a victory for the US ruler against his Democratic rivals, but also a new sample of power within the Republican party. However, it also confirms that the official group has some cracks.

For Enrique Banús, international analyst and director of the Cultural Center of the University of Piura, the impact of imposing the approval of the budget among the Republicans cannot necessarily affect their current position, but it can have consequences in the medium term of its management.

“Cracks have been before in some decisions, it is not new and it is also normal that within a large party like the Republican, and also the Democrat, there are diverse sensibilities,” explains the internationalist.

Despite this, the Republican tycoon continues to demonstrate that for now his speech remains, ultimately, almost unquestionable inside his party.

“There is a strong answer, but we are already seeing that this is the method Trump When an objective is proposed. Any reserve is totally parked and works based on threats. In the end he has succeeded, but this can have a price on the part of the voters, ”says Banús.

“Trump At some point he said that congressmen had to vote in favor because if their political career was not over, which evidently does not depend on him, but it is a strong threat, ”he adds.

The reserve of certain members of the Republican Party is around the United States mid -term elections scheduled by November 2026, in which the 435 members of the House of Representatives and between 33 and 34 seats of the Senate are elected.

Beware of pocket and economy

Affect a sector of its electorate with the cuts, as well as the opposition of the increase by a sector of Republican voters are fears of applicants to the US Legislative Power. This is understood by Francisco Belaunde, internationalist and professor at the University of Lima and the San Ignacio de Loyola University.

“Obviously this will have political impact, because there are indeed sectors that will be affected by the withdrawal of several aid such as Medicaid. The legislative elections are coming next year and it is very possible that this will impact on the support of the Republican Party,” says Belaunde.

“Many Republicans know it and that is why they are very nervous, so I think this law can be a kind of political as political to Donald Trump”, He adds.

Belaunde coincides with Enrique Banús that coercion has been one of the main conviction routes that the Republican leader has had for the approval of his law and mentions that the mid -term elections were a useful letter for the head of government to announce with pomp the approval of his budget.

“He presses largely with the topic of the campaign on the side of financing to those Republican congressmen who want to go to re -election next year,” explains Belaunde.

Regardless of the above, the force position of Trump It will be conditioned by the success of your economic program in the opinion of the specialists. The surveys have begun to show a decrease in the approval of the president and his co -religionists fear that a decline in the economy can be decisive in the legislative elections.

“If it is seen that at the economic level the situation in the United States begins to crack, it is seen that inflation begins to increase and that – although it still does not know much – a recession can be reached, that will evidently limit and weaken much more to Donald Trump”, Belaunde concludes.