Maplewho was Minister of Economy of Morales For 12 of his 14 years in the presidency, he is recognized as the promoter of the “economic miracle” for which Bolivia He achieved strong growth between 2006 and 2014. But today the country experiences a decrease in exports, especially hydrocarbons, which results in the lack of dollars. The scarcity of currencies hinders fuel importation, so there is not enough gasoline to meet demand.
“I will not be a popular vote division factor nor will I facilitate a fascistoid right -wing projectthat wants to destroy the model we have built ”, said Maple In his Tuesday message.
“From here I launch a challenge to the former president Evo Morales of not insisting on being a presidency candidate, ”he added.
Morales responded on Wednesday and said he does not renounce his candidacy. “Only the people can ask me to decline the candidacy. We have no personal ambitions. We are going to obey the mandate of the people to save, again, Bolivia,” he wrote on the social network X.
At this point, it should be noted that a justice failure determined at the end of 2023 that Morales can no longer be a candidatebecause the Constitution says that no one can exercise the presidency for more than two periods, whether they are consecutive or alternate.
Even this Wednesday the Plurinational Constitutional Court (TCP) He established that the presidential re -election is once continuously and without the possibility of a third mandate.
Morales and Arce are distanced since the end of 2021for disagreements regarding government decisions, more control and presidential candidacy. Today the president is owned by the party founded by Evo Morales.
The president of Bolivia Luis Arce (left) and former president Evo Morales, who were previously allies and today are political enemies. (Photo of Aizar Raldes / AFP).
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Now that Arce is out of the race for the presidency, the dispute for the leadership of the left will be among Morales, which insists on his nomination, and the current president of the Senate, Andrónico Rodríguezwho already said he wants to be presidential candidate and thus broke with the coca leader.
During your speech, Arce invoked Rodríguez and other leftist forces to “think and act based on the unit.”
Andrónico Rodríguez’s options
The sociologist and political analyst Ricardo Calla Ortega He said to Commerce that the resignation of Maple was expected in recent weeks, well The surveys gave only 1% of voting intention. This due to its abysmal discredit generated by the crisis in which the country is. “The collapse of the economy is brutal”He said.
Indeed, in the last published at the end of March by the capture consultant, Arce had 1% of the electoral preferences, under even the opponents Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge Quiroga. Who led the survey was Rodríguezwith 18%. Evo Morales does not appear because he is legally prevented from applying.
The president of the Senate and member of the Socialism Movement (MAS), Andrónico Rodríguez (Center), observes during an act of his presidential candidacy in El Alto, Bolivia, on May 10, 2025. (Photo by Jorge Bernal / AFP).
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What will happen to the MAS? Calla said Arce is trying to convince Andrónico Rodríguez to be the official candidate.
“We understand that Arce negotiates with Andronón, who is beginning to be seen as the candidate who will try to win the hard vote of the MAS. He would have agreed with Luis Arce who will allow his escape from Bolivia once his government has finished. Arce has lowered his candidacy in exchange for it. He would also have committed to put the state apparatus available to Andronón during the campaign,” Calla said.
Calla added that Rodríguez has not yet achieved the unification of the mass votewhich is divided between him and Morales. His viability as a candidate depends on Evo supporting him or at least he does not sabote it.
The Bolivian journalist Rafael Archondo He agreed that Arce offers to give the acronym of the MAS to Rodríguez in exchange for not being persecuted judicially nor condemned by history. “It proposes to unify the party around Andronón, trying to join an eventual winning project, despite its unpopularity,” he told Commerce.
However, Archondo explained that Aliating Evo Morales and Luis Arce could end up harming Rodríguezbecause both carry a high citizen rejection that would result in a Voting punishment.
“If Andrononic agrees to apply for the most with the support of Arce, he will have to face the electorate who considers that this government has been one of the worst. There is the dilemma. Etoances, that possible covenant stumbles with that serious difficulty. Arce is a negative value in a campaign. Something similar happens with Evo Morales, because there are important sectors of citizenship that reject it with great vehement.
“Andronic, in exchange for the acronym, or the device, would have to swallow these two toads. He would have to go through an electoral viacrucis, because every day in the campaign the adversaries are going to face the poor management of Arce and the crimes that Evo Morales committed, ”he added.
For Archondo, The best scenario for Rodríguez would be to look for a game that postulates it and starting from scratch. “In that case, I could attract the punishment vote that rejects those leaders and also the massive hard vote,” Archondo said.
“If neither Evo nor Arce will be on the ballot, and it will only be able to be Andrononic, why and eradica would have to pull these two bodies?” He added.
What about the opposition?
Can the division in the most be capitalized by the opposition? At present, the opponents of the government have failed to agree on a unique candidacy that brings together the preferences of those who reject the MAS, so they start at a disadvantage.
For silence, although opponents are fragmented, The anti -mas vote exceeds 70% And there is space for surprise growth of opposition candidates. “The electoral future is highly uncertainbut a atmosphere is outlined with real possibilities of alternation if an opposition front is articulated. “
Archondo also believes that the punishment vote will most likely translate into support for opposition formulas. “The result will depend on how capable the opposition of unifying is and if Andrononic manages to unmarked the legacy of Evo and Arce.”
