Taking command in Venezuela: how González Urrutia could return to his country on January 10

One of the possibilities has come from the mouth of former Spanish president Felipe González, who this Monday the 23rd offered to accompany the Venezuelan opposition leader, who is now in Spain as a political refugee after a wave of arrests dictated by the Chavista regime.

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“If I had to make the decisions, I would take him on a plane, like we brought him,” the 82-year-old politician told reporters.

Edmundo González arrived in Spain on a plane chartered by the Spanish government on September 8, after having taken refuge, first in the Dutch embassy and then in the Spanish legation in Caracas (Venezuela). Now he has been in Madrid for more than three months.

In this period, the opposition leader has denounced the persecution of the Chavista dictatorship after being an opposition candidate in the presidential elections of July 28, of which he declared himself the winner, showing more than 80% of the electoral records. Several countries have recognized him as president-elect, including the United States.

However, Venezuela’s electoral authorities proclaimed Nicolás Maduro for a third six-year term without showing any minutes. The opposition denounced the fraud. But serious questions remain about how González Urrutia will be able to assume the presidency in Maduro’s place.

The opposition leader himself has indicated that he has no restrictions on returning to his country, although he has not revealed how he will do so. “I am not going to reveal the day or the way in which I am going to arrive in Venezuela,” González Urrutia said in the last hours.

The roads to Venezuela

Is it possible for González Urrutia to return to Venezuela by air? This approach by former President of the Spanish Government Felipe González would be more practical at first glance given the distance between Spain and Venezuela. However, for Francisco Belaúnde Matossian, professor of international law at the University of Lima, it is a risky measure.

“What can happen is that the Venezuelan government prohibits the plane from landing”points out the analyst in conversation with The Commerceas an extreme situation: the risk would be that the Maduro regime could find out that Edmundo González Urrutia was traveling on the plane.

A journey of this type could take place through a clandestine flight, with the use of a forged passport or some disguise.

The other option is the land route. For Belaúnde this is a more practical strategy. “I imagine that he will seek entry at some point on the border. Of course, the issue is what the position of the bordering countries would be.”he explains, and in this case we are talking about Colombia, Brazil and Guyana.

The latter country has a current conflict with Venezuela over the possession of the territory called Essequibo, under the administration of Guyana. However, the government of Nicolás Maduro has claimed the territory through the Organic Law for the Defense of Guayana Esequiba. This difference has raised fears of the start of an armed conflict between both countries.

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On the other hand, the relationship of the Venezuelan regime with Colombia and Brazil also remains an unknown, despite the ideological closeness of Nicolás Maduro with presidents Gustavo Petro and Lula da Silva.

“What happens if the Petro government finds out that [Edmundo González] Are you going to want to cross the Colombian border? We do not know what Petro’s reaction will be at that moment, because it is also not known exactly if Petro is going to recognize Maduro as president as of January 10.”explains the university professor. Still, consider that “the borders are so large and it is known that they are impossible to control” due to the traffic that exists in them.

A dangerous move

Once the problem of Edmundo González Urrutia’s trip to Venezuela has been resolved, the other difficulty now revolves around the inauguration of the government. You could be arrested, or even your life could be at risk.

It is worth noting that Judge Edward Briceño has ordered the arrest of the opposition leader. According to a report by BBC World, Prosecutor Luis Ernesto Dueñez Reyes accused González Urrutia of usurpation of functions, forging a public document, instigating disobedience of laws, conspiracy, sabotage of systems and crimes of association.

In other words: he could be arrested once he sets foot on Venezuelan soil.

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But for teacher Belaunde Matossian “what the opposition is doing in some way is a challenge to the government”.

“The opposition is waiting for a break to occur within the regime, perhaps. I find it difficult, but in the end, you never know”he indicated. For this reason, he maintains that a crowd must be organized to welcome him, to be protected by a large number of people.

He also considers that the Venezuelan intelligence service must be preparing for that important date. Along the same lines, Francisco Belaunde does not fail to draw attention to the recent release of political prisoners “as a kind of gesture to try to calm people down, eventually”.

This is how January 10 is shaping up in Venezuela, even in the uncertainty of who will govern Venezuelans in the coming six-year term.