More than half of the world will go to the polls this year: what is the outlook in Latin America?

In a turbulent world, full of crises and wars with no end in sight, more than half of the world’s population goes to the polls in 2024 in key elections for the future of international geopolitics. Of the 70 countries that will have elections, eyes are on the United States and Russia – powers of global influence – but there will also be processes in Latin Americawhere citizens of six nations are called to elect their authorities.

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In the region, some of the elections will be historic and others stand out for their uncertain or controversial conditions, as we explain below.

1. Venezuela: doubts in the candidacy of María Corina Machado

After a political crisis that seems endless, Venezuelans are called to vote in presidential elections for which there is no date yet, but which are expected for the second half of the year.

The opposition decided to participate in the elections after a long negotiation with the Nicolás Maduro regime. However, for the presidential candidate of the main opposition coalition, María Corina Machado, to be able to run, the political disqualification that weighs on her must be lifted, as requested by the US, the European Union and part of the international community.

José Carrasquero, a Venezuelan political analyst and expert in electoral campaigns, highlights that Machado’s election arose from a primary process that generated considerable credibility. “In 2024, what the regime seeks is to divide the opposition so that Maduro can win. He is also going to try to have an opening towards the US to see if he obtains income to try to regain popular favor,” the analyst tells El Comercio.

2. El Salvador: Bukele is seeking a controversial re-election

El Salvador is already counting down to the general elections on February 4, in which President Nayib Bukele will seek immediate re-election, something not provided for in the country’s Constitution, but endorsed by a Supreme Electoral Court that, according to critics of the president, is tied to the politics of the president and his New Ideas party.

Bukele, who came to power in 2019, will face candidates from traditional parties, but his high popularity ratings, mainly due to his security management, make him the clear favorite.

Salvadoran investigative journalist Fernando Romero believes that, despite the controversies over cases of corruption in his environment or accusations of human rights violations, Bukele is going to win. “No candidate has the strength to face him or even to reach a second round,” he tells this newspaper.

He considers that from now on there will be a tougher stance against the opposition, which includes not only the opposition political parties, “but also the social organizations that look after victims of the emergency regime and transparency.”

3. Mexico: for the first time a woman will be president

This will be a historic electoral year for Mexico, where, for the first time, a woman will take the reins of the country.

It is practically a fact that the presidency will be fought between the ruling party Claudia Sheinbaum, former head of Government of Mexico City, and Xóchitl Gálvez, former senator and leader of the opposition platform Fuerza y ​​Corazón por México, in the elections on June 2.

The favorite is Sheinbaum, who represents the continuation of the transformations promoted by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and has an advantage of more than 20 points in most opinion polls over Gálvez.

According to the National Electoral Institute (INE), these elections will be the largest held so far in Mexico, as they will be held in the 32 entities, in which 20,375 positions will be elected, including president, deputies, senators, governors, etc

4. The neighbors who complete the electoral list

In Latin America there will also be general elections in Panama (June 5), the Dominican Republic (May 19) and Uruguay (October 27).