“Kast has a clear mandate to act quickly on security and migration”: The greatest challenge of the elected president of Chile

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This perception of insecurity is due to the increase in violent crimes and the consolidation of organized crime in Chile, with the arrival of foreign bands like the Venezuelan one Aragua Train, which has a presence in several regions and connections outside the country. He is responsible for high-impact crimes such as hitmen, kidnappings, extortion, sexual exploitation, immigrant trafficking, among others.

However, the homicide rate in Chili is low compared to the most violent countries. In 2024, it closed with 6 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, similar to that of Peru and well below Ecuadorwhich had 39 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.

Regarding irregular migration, It is estimated that in Chile there are more than 300,000 foreigners in an undocumented situation.

In that context, kast He promised explicit political support to Carabineros, with a larger budget, equipment, technology and increased staff. His program includes legal reforms to expand police powers in controls, arrests and use of force, as well as legal protection for officials who act in procedures, with the aim of reduce complaints and judicial processes against them.

kast has proposed the participation of the Armed forces in the protection of critical infrastructure, border control and support in high crime areas. The approach aims to treat organized crime as a threat to national security.

Regarding migration, Kast promised a greater deployment of police and military forces on the northern border, with the aim of preventing irregular entry into the country. His main campaign flag on this issue is rapid expulsion of foreigners who are in an irregular immigration situation, especially those who commit crimes or have a criminal record. Kast has proposed simplifying administrative and judicial procedures to carry out deportations more quickly.

A change of focus

Pia Greeneresearcher at the Center for Studies in Public Security and Organized Crime of the San Sebastián University, tells The Commerce that the security and migration promises of kast they point to a change of approach in the face of the advance of organized crime and irregular migration in Chile.

According to the expert, the central axis of the kast It is not only the tightening of police control, but a more demanding approach to two phenomena that are closely linked today: illegal immigration and transnational organized crime. “The president-elect has sought a stronger approach to illegal and disorderly immigration, which has been key to the entry of organized crime that today is installed in the country”, explains.

In this context, he maintains, kast would have observed international experiences to design their proposals, among them the prison system promoted by Nayib Bukele in El Salvadorparticularly with regard to the prison segmentationas well as European experiences, such as the Italian case. “The idea is to advance in more demanding border control measures, but also in better criminal prosecution, segmentation in prisons, reintegration and rehabilitation”he indicates.

Regarding the strengthening of the police, Greene maintains that the Carabineros and the PDI already have broad powers, but adds that in recent years there has been a weakening of political support. “After the social outbreak there was a retreat that affected the pe“persecution and control of crime”, he states.

In that line, The expert considers the president-elect’s promise to provide more equipment, resources and political support key so that the police can fulfill their role effectively.

Regarding the participation of the Armed forcesGreene makes a clear difference. It values ​​their support in logistical, strategic and border control tasks, but warns about the risks of using them as a police force. “Militarizing crime is not good public policy,” he maintains, remembering that in other countries this has led to more corruption, institutional weakening and escalation of violence.

For Greene, the diagnosis in Chile is clear: Organized crime is already an established reality. However, he warns that a strategy based solely on control and sanction is not sustainable. “International evidence shows that control policies are required, but also good criminal prosecution, effective punishment, rehabilitation and reintegration,” details.

In its analysis, security must be addressed as a set of policies that include prevention, especially to prevent children and young people from entering criminal trajectories. “Prevention policies are the only sustainable and cost-efficient ones in the long term.””, he emphasizes.

This implies, he adds, high and maximum security prisons for criminal gang leaders, prison segmentation and effective enforcement of sentencesall with full respect for human rights.

In the immigration field, Greene recognizes that The promise of rapid expulsions of undocumented migrants faces significant challenges. “It is not just an issue of internal management,” warns. The viability of these measures depends on inter-institutional coordination and the will of other countries.

“Diplomacy is going to be key,” he states, pointing out that Chile will need international cooperation for these policies to materialize in the short term.

The expert sees it likely that the Kast government will seek bilateral and regional agreements, especially with neighboring countries such as Peru. “Today security is a transnational phenomenon,” explains, so No country can address it in isolation.

“Kast has a clear mandate to act quickly on security and migration”

For its part, Kenneth BunkerPhD in Political Science from the London School of Economics, and master’s degree in Political Science from San Diego State University, tells The Commerce that Sunday’s resounding victory gave Kast a broad mandate to act quickly and, eventually, go beyond what was promised in the campaign, a kind of blank check.

“The victory in all regions and in the vast majority of communes shows that what kast was proposing has a lot of resonance with voters,” Bunker points out. In his opinion, the president-elect’s emphasis on a “emergency government”, With visible results in the first 90 days, it responds directly to a citizen demand. “That is a mandate,” he states.

According to the analyst, this support could push kast to combine two avenues of action: the legislative, for long-term reforms, and the administrative, through decrees, to meet immediate goals. “Not reaching results in 90 days is going to generate frustration and could hurt you a lot in the long term,” warns.

In terms of security, Bunker recognizes that the path is not without costs. The eventual increase in police powers and the greater role of the Armed Forces could create tension with human rights. “There is going to be a tension between achieving order with a certain haste and human rights”he affirms, although he estimates that this issue will be more relevant for the opposition than for the voters who supported kast with a historic election.

Bunker believes that the president-elect will try to balance both dimensions, but considers it inevitable that the debate will emerge early in his administration. “I don’t think I want to have problems with human rights, but inevitably it is going to be an issue.”

On the effectiveness or not of the policies of firm handthe analyst is categorical. “That is empirically proven,” saysciting the case of El Salvador. In his opinion, The challenge is to apply this approach within democracies with strong institutional counterweights. To confront organized crime, he suggests, more police power, more prisons and greater coordinated state intelligence are required.

The main limit, he warns, will be political: the lack of a solid majority in the Senate. “There you are going to have to negotiate with the opposition, which is not going to give you the solution to the security crisis,” underlines.

In the immigration field, Bunker notes a nuance between Kast’s original program and his speech in the final weeks of the campaign. “The speech was moderated a little,” points out, in a context marked by the second round and the need to ensure victory.

More than immediate mass expulsions, The analyst perceives a shift towards a policy of incentives for the voluntary departure of irregular migrants. “The idea is to create all the conditions for irregular migrants to leave the country”he explains. That would include the reduction of social and economic benefits and facilities to leave Chile with the possibility of returning legally in the future.

“It’s a little bit of pressure to avoid having to expel, which is politically more difficult,” summarize.