Is the meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping the beginning of a new era for the US and China?

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Known since they were both vice presidents of their nations, Biden and Xi met again in San Francisco, on the sidelines of the annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC), for the first time since the G20 held in Bali in November 2022. .

At that time, the event was marked by the war between Russia and Ukraine, the controversial visit of the then Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan and the military tension that was consequently generated in the Strait of Formosa, the which divides the Chinese mainland from the island that Beijing considers rebellious.

However, that meeting was of little use, since a few months later, in February 2023, both countries wrote a new chapter of tensions after US forces shot down alleged Chinese spy balloons that were flying over their territory.

Now, the scenario is not optimal for Biden and Xi either, since both powers are at one of their most distant points in recent years and in many cases without agreeing on support for belligerents in conflict, such as the still ongoing conflict between Russia. and Ukraine or that maintained by Israel and the Hamas terrorist group in the Gaza Strip.

In the prelude, the American leader explained that the meeting was agreed to avoid “break away from China” and “change the relationship for the better”.

Biden said he wants to “return to a normal rhythm of correspondence, being able to answer the phone and talk if there is a crisis”.

From Beijing, for their part, they assured in advance that the leaders were going to discuss issues related to the “world peace and development”.

“Relations between the United States and China are at a pretty low point today. On almost all issues there are completely opposite positions or, in the best of cases, with significant differences. The only issue that could be said to be on a similar line is the environment, which is very important for the COP.“, he comments to Trade Marco Carrasco, professor of East Asian Studies at the Faculty of Law and Political Sciences of the University of San Marcos.

Economy, the true interest

Carrasco explains, however, that there is a factor that is above any political disagreement between both governments: the economy.

“In reality, it depends a lot on China’s interest in certain aspects, which is why it is now quite strategic for it to both participate in these meetings in person and show itself to the world in an open way to attract investments. In this post-pandemic season, its economy has still been slightly below what the government expected, which is why I see greater interest on the Chinese side to show itself than on the American side.”says the analyst.

Although at the beginning of the month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Chinese GDP growth, going from a previous estimate of 5% to the current one of 5.4%, Beijing seeks to further boost its recovery to leave behind one of the most difficult years for its economy.

“It is no coincidence that President Xi met with Bill Gates in the middle of the year or the other meetings he has had with businessmen and others. What they aim for is to be able to show themselves openly and give the world a guarantee that they are not an isolated nation as has been recently thought. It is a quite important key point for the Chinese side”, highlights Carrasco.

From the American side, the analyst estimates, the interests are focused, above all, on the public health crisis that the country is suffering due to fentanyl and on recovering the flow of military communication with the Asian giant.

Fentanyl, Taiwan and wars

The United States is currently facing the deadliest drug epidemic in its history. And the sad protagonist behind this scenario is fentanyl, a synthetic opioid 50 times more lethal than heroin and whose main ingredients come from China.

This has led this year to Xi and Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussing the issue in person during a meeting that took place in June; but, also, for the US Department of Justice to file charges against a dozen Chinese companies that manufacture the necessary supplies to produce the aforementioned drug.

For Carrasco, Washington could try to pressure Beijing to take action against these producers in exchange for an issue that is also quite sensitive: Taiwan’s independence dreams.

“Since Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year, which was one of the most critical moments on this issue, we have seen improvements. For example, in July Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was in Beijing for a few days and that eased tensions a bit. So, I see it as plausible that some agreements will be made. On the Chinese side, they will seek to obtain a guarantee that the US will respect the independence of mainland China and that it will not interfere further in the issue. While on the US side it could be used as a negotiating measure to address issues such as the fentanyl crisis. So, we could see Washington agree to respect Chinese sovereignty in exchange for Beijing committing to attacking these fentanyl producers.”, he comments.

On the other hand, in a situation more typical of the Cold War than of these times, the United States and China have been indirectly confronted in the two main war conflicts currently taking place in the world.

Both in the war between Russia and Ukraine and in the one between Israel and Hamas, the two powers each seem to be aligned with different sides.

In that sense, Carrasco estimates that the impact of this Wednesday’s meeting would have a minor impact, especially due to the benefits that China would be obtaining from a powerful partner that has been left as isolated as Russia.

“A few weeks ago, President Xi met with Vladimir Putin. Their relationship is quite close. I believe that the details of what is said about this will hardly come to light, but Washington could ask China to exert a certain level of influence so that Russia restricts its activity in Ukraine. But, in reality, I see it as something quite complementary, I don’t think it will achieve anything significant, especially because the relationship between Xi and Putin goes beyond the strategic, they have shown a certain affinity and that is beneficial above all for China. It gives Beijing many advantages to have a weakened Russia as an ally because it allows it to have better access to gas, oil and other materials.”says the expert.