Is Israel failing in Gaza? How Hamas’s return to the northern enclave raises questions about its military strategy

Israel has been bombing part of the refugee camp since Saturday. Jabalia (north), where evacuations have been ordered. There are also ground operations.

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Furthermore, the Israeli army began operating in the area of Zeitounin central Gaza, as it continues its offensive in eastern Gaza Rafah and near the border crossing with Egypt.

The return of Israel to these areas that he had supposedly cleaned of Hamas renews the questions about his long term military strategy. Since the start of the war on October 7, more than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed and much of Gaza is in ruins, but more than 100 Israeli hostages remain captive and the leadership of Hamas remains free, he stressed cnn.

It also calls into question the determination of Israel to carry out a large-scale ground operation in Rafahwith the purpose of ensuring his victory against Hamasas Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The biggest Hamas attacks so far in 2024

According to Institute for the Study of War (ISW)based in Washington, on May 13 Palestinian militias, including Hamas, claimed responsibility for an unusually high number of attacks on Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Stripwhich shows that they continue to be effective in combat and maintain an important force presence there.

Palestinian militias claimed responsibility for 33 attacks against Israeli forces in Jabaliawhich represents the largest number of attacks claimed in a single day so far in 2024.

Previously, the ISW had said that Hamas and the other Palestinian militias were still active beyond Rafah.

This is in response to the statement of Israel in the sense that Rafah It was the last stronghold of Hamas and its commandersand that a large-scale ground operation was necessary in that place to fulfill its main objective: definitively ending the Palestinian militant group.

According to the ISW, Hamas has taken advantage of the Israeli withdrawals from northern Gaza to begin to reconstitute itselfwhich in turn has led Israeli forces to return to said area to clean it again.

The ISW explains that even before the return of the Israelis to Jabaliasince January 2024 there were few Palestinian attacks in this field, probably due to the absence of Israeli targets and not because the militias had been eliminated.

“Hamas often moves to other areas during an Israeli operation, allowing it to preserve some of its forces. It is almost certain that Hamas and the other Palestinian militias will resume their reconstitution efforts in these neighborhoods after Israeli forces complete their current clearance operations,” notes the ISW.

US: Rafah operation will not eliminate Hamas

USA is also aware that an operation in Rafah is not key to ending Hamas.

On Sunday, in an interview with CBS News, the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinkenwarned that a major ground offensive in Rafah It would cause “chaos” and “anarchy” but would not eliminate the Palestinian militant group.

“We have seen Hamas return to the areas that Israel liberated in the northeven in Jan Yunis”, ruined city near RafahBlinken assured.

He added that a ground offensive in Rafah will leave Israel “with the noose around its neck in a lasting insurgency because “There will be a lot of armed Hamas no matter what they do in Rafah.”.

He also criticized Israel for not having a “credible plan to protect civilians,” nor a postwar plan to Loop. He said that without an alternative to Hamas in Gaza, Israel will achieve unsustainable successes and Hamas would ultimately return to power in the enclave.

While US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told CNN that The United States does not believe that Israel’s goal of a complete victory over Hamas is “likely or possible.”

Questions also in Israel

In one’s own Israel There are also experts who affirm that the war strategy of Netanyahuthe complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza, is wrong and unrealistic, as it lacks a long-term vision.

“Israel’s strategy is not good”said Danny Orbach, a military historian at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, quoted by CNN. “The tactic of endlessly clearing and degrading the capabilities of Hamas while avoiding the responsibility of governing Gaza will not work,” he said.

Over the weekend, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Herzi Halevicriticized the strategy of Netanyahu. “As long as there is no political movement that gives rise to a governing body other than Hamas in the strip, we will have to operate again and again there and elsewhere to dismantle Hamas’s infrastructure,” he said. “It will be a Sisyphean task,” he added, suggesting it may never be achieved.

The former head of Israeli military intelligence, Tamir Haymanhas also called on Israel’s rulers to reach an agreement that includes an indefinite ceasefire and work with a reformed Palestinian self-government to restore order in Loop.

Hayman, who heads the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, told CNN that Israel risks falling into a perpetual war of attrition, in which “endless friction” occurs with its neighbors. According to him, a prolonged war could leave Gaza under the rule of Hamas or at the mercy of a power vacuum in which various armed groups could compete for dominance.

What about the dialogue for a truce?

The resumption of fighting in northern Loop It occurs while the conversations to reach a Stop the fire in exchange for the release of hostages they are frozen.

This was confirmed this Tuesday Qatarwhose prime minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said that the current Israeli military operation in Rafah has done “back”the negotiations with Hamas and said that they are almost “stalled.”

Qatar hosts the political office of Hamas in Doha since 2012, and together with Egypt and USA has been mediating for months between Israel and the Islamists for a ceasefire.

For his part, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al Ansari said on Tuesday that “Israel has no roadmap” to end its war in Gazaand considered that the “solution” to unfreeze the negotiations “is the international pressure”.

”We have evaluated the seriousness of the parties, and it is clear to us that the Israeli side does not have a roadmap and that its objectives are not realistic (…) now the negotiations are frozen,” he said.

He reiterated that “there is one party (Israel) that seeks an agreement for a temporary ceasefire” for an exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners, “and then return to war, and another party (Hamas) that wants that after the exchange ends the war.”

“What we want is to reach a situation in which the exchange of hostages for prisoners has the natural result of the end of the war,” Al Ansari said.