“Iran was not defeated and managed to resist the main world power”: the balance after the truce with the US.

trump had threatened to bomb bridges and power plants in Iran If until 7 pm on Tuesday this country did not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, after mediation by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, The truce was achieved and the American postponed the ultimatum.

SEE ALSO: Trump’s threats against Iran’s bridges and energy: war crime or military strategy?

Despite the ceasefire, on Wednesday the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned that keeps his “finger on the trigger” and that the country has “no confidence” in Washington’s promises.

In USAthe head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine He stressed that the armed forces “They remain ready” to resume fighting if necessary.

As for the negotiations, they will begin on Friday in Islamabad and a period of two weeks has been given to reach an agreement.

These are the 10 points of Iran’s plan to negotiate the end of the war:

• 1. Complete cessation of any aggression against Iran and allied resistance groups.
• 2. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, prohibition of any attack from bases against Iran and abstention from adopting offensive military deployments.
• 3. Limited daily ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, under a safe passage protocol supervised and regulated by Iran.
• 4. Lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions and those imposed by the UN against Iran.
• 5. Compensation for damages suffered by Iran by creating an investment and financial fund.
• 6. Iran’s commitment not to manufacture nuclear weapons.
• 7. Recognition by the United States of Iran’s right to enrich uranium and negotiation on the level of enrichment.
• 8. Acceptance by Iran to negotiate bilateral and multilateral peace agreements with countries in the region based on their interests.
• 9. Extension of the principle of non-aggression to all actors who have attacked resistance groups.
• 10. Finalization of all resolutions of the Board of Governors (of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA) and the Security Council (of the UN), and approval of all commitments in an official UN resolution.

“Every day of war erodes the prestige of Trump and the US.”

For the journalist Alberto Rojasdirector of the International Affairs Observatory of the Finis Terrae University (Santiago, Chile) and author of the book “A world at war”, the balance of the conflict reveals a paradox: Despite the obvious asymmetry between the United States, the world’s main military power, and a country like Iran, the war has spread much longer than expected..

“A war of this nature should have lasted about five or seven days, not weeks… The fact that Iran has resisted and prolonged the war is, in itself, a triumph for Iran”, holds.

That resistance — more political than strictly military — has had a direct cost for Washington, he adds. Each additional day of combat, he explains, has eroded the prestige of Trump and the United States. He has also exposed a “confusing and contradictory” management of the White House, which would have started from a wrong diagnosis about Iran’s capacity for resistance. “The United States did not have a clear plan either for the war or for the day after in the face of an eventual defeat or surrender of Iran, which has not occurred,” warns.

Rojas indicates that although the first attacks by the US and Israel achieved precision strikes against key figures of the regimeIran—which has been preparing for a scenario of this type for more than two decades— managed to sustain its power structure. “The Iranian regime did not fall… and it is very unlikely that it will fall,” he notes.

“There was no change of regime or defeat, Trump’s great objective was not met. Iran is beaten, but still standing and will continue to exist more or less as we knew it before the conflict,” summarize.

In this context, he specifies that the two-week truce and the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz They appear as a relief not only for the global economy, but also for the country itself. trumpnow facing a high internal political cost in the face of the legislative elections in November. “The damage to its image and to the leadership of the United States could be significant and even irreversible”warns the analyst.

Facing the negotiationthe 10-point plan Iran It is seen by Rojas more as an initial basis than as a definitive roadmap. Even so, it makes several red lines clear: Tehran will hardly give up its nuclear program, will demand the lifting of sanctions and demand compensation for the damages of the war. On the American side, the priorities are to guarantee free navigation in the Persian Gulf and contain – although now with a smaller margin – Iranian nuclear development.

There are demands that appear practically non-negotiable, such as the US military withdrawal from the region. “Washington has been consolidating its strategic presence in the Gulf for decades, with bases and alliances that it will hardly abandon,” explains Reds.

With this scenario, the negotiation in Pakistan It appears to be complex and highly unstable. “This truce is hanging on a couple of pins. It can break at any moment,” warns.

If that happens, the most likely scenario is a return to open war, although with new variables, says Rojas. Among the options that could be considered are more focused military operations by the United States to secure strategic points, such as the seizure of the Kharg island or strategic enclaves in the Strait of Hormuz, in an attempt to guarantee the global energy flow.

In any case, Rojas concludes, the central data is already marked: Iran was not defeated and managed to resist the main world power. And that, in itself, redefines the starting point of any negotiation.

The red lines that complicate the agreement

For the international analyst journalist Carlos Novoathe balance of the war depends, to a large extent, on the narrative. “As in other recent conflicts, who wins or loses is not just a question of facts, but of how the story is constructed”holds The Commerce.

In concrete terms, he warns, The United States failed to meet its initial goal of dismantling the Iranian regime. “There was no regime change. Although key figures were eliminated, the power structure remains in place and relatively strong,” explains. In that context, he adds, Trump’s harsh rhetoric when he spoke of ultimatum responds to the need not to appear defeated. “There is an obvious effort to install the idea of ​​victory, but in reality that is not the case”he states.

Novoa emphasizes that the central element today is the truce, although he warns that It is a “very weak” pause. “The most important thing is that the fighting was stopped. Iran has resisted more than expected, and that already sets the tone of the negotiation”, he indicates.

In view of the process that will open in Pakistanthe analyst considers that the Iranian plan is just a starting point. In that area, identify clear red lines: Tehran will not completely give up its nuclear program, although I could accept certain limits. “Iran will not sign a blank check. “It can partially give way, but not abandon its capacity for enrichment,” explains.

In parallel, rules out the United States accepting demands such as war compensation or a total withdrawal of its forces in the region. “There could be temporary adjustments or movements, but not a structural retreat,” point.

Novoa also recalls that there is a key precedent: the nuclear agreement reached in 2015 during the Barack Obama administration, which was later abandoned by Trump, which reactivated the Iranian nuclear program. “This precedent weighs on current distrust,” points out.

If negotiations fail, the analyst considers it unlikely that trump escalate the conflict again in the short term to a total war, especially due to the internal cost that it would imply in the face of the legislative elections. “A broader war would require ground troops, more time and fewer casualties, something difficult to sustain politically”he warns.

Novoa adds that the scenario points to a prolongation of the tension. “Both sides need to buy time: Iran to reorganize its power structure and the United States to sustain the narrative that it has won,” he concludes.