“If Ukraine joins NATO, the allies would be dragged into a Third World War”

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Andri Sibigaseemed resigned on Wednesday, when He admitted that he was aware that his country will not be accepted into NATO while the war lasts.

LOOK: Trump promised to end the Ukrainian war in 24 hours: What are Putin’s harsh conditions?

Ukraine expressed for the first time his intention to enter the NATO in 2008, during a meeting held in BucharestRomania.

At that summit, the leaders of the countries of the NATO They refused to give Ukraine the status of official candidate, despite the “strong support” of the then president of the United States, George W. Bush. The organization only promised to welcome long term.

In 2014, after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Ukraine relaunched its NATO accession process.which had been interrupted in 2010 by the then pro-Russian government Viktor Yanukovych.

In response, the then NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, left the door open for the entry of Ukraine, but he did not announce concrete steps.

In February 2022, after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukrainethe president Zelensky called for “unrestricted military assistance” from the countries of the NATOwho responded by sending weapons and ammunition.

Months later, on September 30, 2022, after the Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions, Zelensky called for an “accelerated” NATO accession process. The allies responded that it was impossible.

In July 2023, in the long-awaited Vilnius summitcapital of Lithuania, the NATO said that will accept Ukraine’s entry, but only when the allies decide and the country meets the necessary requirements.

Furthermore, the then Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenbergpledged to expedite Ukraine’s accession “from a two-stage process to a single stage process” that will depend on a political decision.

Zelensky He responded harshly: “There seems to be no willingness to invite Ukraine to NATO nor that he is a member of the alliance. For Russia, this is an incentive to continue its terror,” said.

On the side of Russiaone of the president’s demands Vladimir Putin to end the war is that Ukraine renounces forever its claim to join NATO.

Why is there resistance to Ukraine’s entry into NATO?

He Article 5 of the Treaty of the NATO establishes that an armed attack against one or more member countries of the Alliance in Europe or North America it is considered an attack against all members. It has only been invoked once, in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States.

So, If Ukraine joins NATO during a war like the current one, Article 5 would have to be activated and all countries would have to go to war against Russia.

“In principle, countries have fear of a third world war. The fact that Ukraine, although a part of its territory, is a member of NATO, to the extent that there could always be confrontations with Russia, effectively the nations can be dragged into a global conflict, into a Third World War. That is why we do not want to take that step of accession.”he said to The Commerce the international analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossian.

“Countries have been moving forward little by little in their support for Ukrainenow they have authorized the use of the long range missiles “Americans against Russian territory, but accepting that Ukraine is part of NATO already seems too dangerous to them, and in no way are they going to endorse that proposal,” he insisted.

In the middle of the Ukrainian war, Sweden and Finland They requested membership in the NATOto which Putin He responded with threats and the announcement of the deployment of troops to the border with the Finns. Finally, the entry process was completed and so far there was no further escalation. Could the same thing finally happen with Ukraine?

“The difference is that Ukraine is at war. For Putin Sweden and Finland are not the same as that country. It is true that Finland was at one time part of the Russian Empire and had war with the Soviet Union, but it is not the same. “Ukraine is at war right now and Putin wants to have at least part of Ukrainian territory.”said Belaunde.

In October of this year, when he had already left the general secretary of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg said that a quick admission of most of Ukraine in NATO could lead to the end of the war.

“Where there is a will, there are ways to find a solution. But a border is needed to define where Article 5 is invoked, and Ukraine must control all territory up to that border.”Stoltenberg told the Financial Times.

“Maybe he said it because he was leaving. “I don’t know if I would have done it when I was still in full mandate, because obviously governments don’t think alike,” Belaunde said.

What will happen to Trump?

The United States is the most powerful member of NATO and the country that has granted the most military aid to Ukraine, under the government of the democrat Joe Biden. However, on January 20, the Republican donald trump will assume power and has already announced that will cut off funds for kyiv and also promised to end the war within 24 hours, although he did not say how he will do it.

The American newspaper “The Wall Street Journal” reported, citing sources close to the magnate, that Trump may want to delay Ukraine’s accession for “20 years.”

While the Reuters agency went further. According to his analysis based on what the advisors of trumpboth publicly and privately, the next American government would be contemplating the elimination of Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

Furthermore, among the proposals to end the war of Ukraine would be the handing over of large areas of Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Trump’s advisers would try to force Moscow and kyiv to negotiate with a carrot-and-stick strategy, which would include cutting off military aid to kyiv unless it agrees to talk, but increasing assistance if the Russian president “Vladimir Putin refuses,” Reuters noted.

Belaunde believes that After Trump comes to power, the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO will be definitively closed.

“It is also unknown what Trump’s attitude in general is towards NATO. On top of that, he has a position that sympathizes with Putin; The outlook is much worse for Ukraine. That is why Zelensky wanted a decision to be made now about his country’s entry.”Belaunde said.

Only military aid

At this week’s foreign ministers’ summit, NATO agreed that the delivery of air defenses to Ukraine is a “priority”which has requested at least 19 additional systems.

The Secretary General of the Alliance, Mark Rutte, He said that allies must provide kyiv with “sufficient support to change the trajectory of this conflict once and for all,” and “ensure that, when the time comes, Ukraine can negotiate peace from a position of strength.”

Rutte did not mention a formal invitation to Ukraine to join NATO. He also did not talk about a specific calendar.

For his part, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andrí Sibiga, reiterated that Ukraine sees its entry into NATO as the only guarantee of real security.

“We are a country at war against which Russia carries out aggression and it is really difficult to talk about the possibility of a country on whose territory military operations are carried out being a member of NATO.”Sibiga acknowledged at a press conference in Brussels.