How the war in Ukraine came to a standstill 5 months after the counteroffensive that was going to recover Crimea

The military chief of UkraineGeneral Valery Zaluzhny, acknowledged last week in an article and in an interview with The Economist that the war with Russia is at a stalemate, five months after his country launched the counteroffensive to recover territory, including Crimeausing the weapons delivered by the West during last winter.

“As in the First World War, we have reached a technological level that places us in a Deadpoint“, said Zaluzhny.

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He added that It would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock in which the conflict is.

“The most likely thing is that there will not be a deep and splendid advance, but a balance of devastating losses and destruction,” the general noted.

In response to what Zaluzhny stated, Igor Zhovkadeputy head of the president’s office Volodymyr Zelenskyon Saturday condemned the Ukrainian military chief’s assessment of the war.

Zhovka said The interview “will have already been carefully read, noted and the conclusions drawn” by the Russians.

He added that he had received calls from his counterparts in the partner countries of Ukraine that were “in a state of panic”. They asked if the war really continued in a stalemate.

“Is this the effect we wanted to achieve with this article?” he said. Zhovka.

“Maybe this is a very deep strategic plan, and we will achieve some success this way. But, to be honest, I’m very surprised,” he added. Zhovka.

“No one believes in our victory like I do.”

Also last week, the president Zelensky he told the magazine TIME in an interview that “No one believes in our victory like I do. Nobody”. But he added that optimism must also be instilled in the allies of Ukrainewhich “requires all your power, your energy.”

The journalist who interviewed him, Simon Shuster, described Zelensky as a tired and sometimes irritable manconcerned that Allied commitment is declining.

“War fatigue is like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe,” he said. Zelensky.

Zelensky He also told TIME that the only option Ukraine has is victoryand that he will not tolerate a truce or negotiations with Vladimir Putin. “For us it would mean leaving this wound open for future generations,” she said.

All these statements and evaluations of the war in ukraine They occur at times when the world’s attention stopped being on that conflict and moved to what is happening in the Gaza Stripwith the war between Israel and Hamas.

In the interview with TIME Zelensky also referred to the issue: “Of course we lost out with the events in the Middle East. People are dying, and the world’s help is needed to save lives,” she said.

Little progress in the counteroffensive

Five months after the counteroffensive was launched, Russia still occupies almost a fifth of Ukraine.

According to the EFE agency, Ukraine has admitted that its troops have only advanced 17 kilometers since they launched the counteroffensive on June 4. The advances have been in the eastern region of Donetsk and in the southern province of Zaporizhiaboth illegally annexed by Russia in 2022.

But in order not to recognize that counteroffensive it’s not going well, Ukraine remember that the Russians took the city of Bakhmut after a 10 month battle.

It should be noted that before the launch of the counteroffensive, Zelensky had said that The ultimate goal of this was to recover the Crimean peninsulaUkrainian territory annexed by Russia in 2014.

An advance of 30 kilometers a day was planned, overcoming the extensive defensive lines that Russia had set up in the winter, consisting of trenches, minefields and the so-called dragon’s teeth.

In his article in The Economist, Zaluzhny admitted that underestimated Russia believing that the enemy army could be stopped only by “bleeding it dry.”

“It was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 soldiers. In any other country these types of losses would have stopped the war”. But not in Russiawhere life is worthless and where President Vladimir Putin is guided by the two world wars, in which the country lost tens of millions of people, he said Zaluzhny.

He stated that in accordance with NATO manuals and their calculations, “four months of counteroffensive would have been enough to reach Crimea, fight in Crimea, return from Crimea and go and return again.”

The EFE agency reported this Monday that Ukrainian troops are advancing on the left bank of the Dnieper River, in the Kherson region, while fighting intensifies on the eastern front, where Russian forces seek to encircle Avdivkaone of the Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk.

Precisely Zaluzhny He said he visited recently Avdivka and described what he observed.

“On our monitors the day I was there, we saw 140 burning Russian vehicles destroyed within four hours of being within range of our artillery“, said. He added that the Ukrainian military faces the same difficulties when trying to advance.

“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy does and they see everything we do. To get out of this dead end we need something new, like gunpowder, which the Chinese invented and which we still use to kill each other,” he emphasized.

The Ukrainian military stated on Monday

that Russian forces are trying to retake Robotyne, a city in the south of the country that was reconquered by the Ukrainians at the end of August.

According to the latest report by the American analysis group Institute for the Study of War (ISW), geolocated images show that Ukrainian forces have managed to progress southeast of the town of Pidtepen, about three kilometers from the left bank of the Dnieper.

Further east, on the same bank of the river, about two kilometers from the shore, Ukrainian troops have formed a stronghold near the town of Krinkiaccording to data from ISW experts.

For its part, the Russian Ministry of Defense, cited by EFE, explained that in the last few hours its troops rejected five attempts by Ukrainian forces to land on the right bank of the Dnieper in the region of Kherson.

According to EFE, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) warned on Monday that Russia is waiting for winter to arrive and temperatures to drop below zero degrees to launch a new massive bombing campaign against the energy system of Ukraine.

“They will most likely start when there is a greater load on our energy system, which creates more favorable conditions for attacks,” said General Vadim Skibitski, one of the top officials of the GUR.

EFE highlighted that thanks to shipments from its Western partners, Ukraine now has many more air defenses than when Russia first attacked its energy system in the fall of last year. However, many areas of the country remain vulnerable to the Russian missile and drone arsenal.

“We are preparing for the worst winter in history. “So we will turn a blind eye if we don’t get the Taurus (German cruise missiles), but we get air defense systems.”stated the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmitro Kuleba, in statements to the German media Welt.

And how do you get out of the deadlock? The general Zaluzhny He said that it is necessary to gain air superiority; cross mine barriers at depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery warfare and electronic warfare; and create and prepare the necessary reserves.

Russia does not agree with the perception you have Zaluzhny of the war: “No, (the conflict) is not at a stalemate. Russia continues to carry out its special military operation. All set goals must be achieved,” presidential spokesman Dmitri Peskov said over the weekend.

He added that Ukraine must understand that it cannot beat Russia on the battlefield.