How possible is a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas?

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The truce agreement, of a humanitarian nature, meant a stop to the intense bombings and ground incursions by Israeli forces in the Palestinian enclave. That territory was reduced to rubble after the offensive launched by the Hebrew country in retaliation for the massacre perpetrated by Hamas on October 7 in Israel.

The temporary ceasefire allowed the release of more than 100 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel. While talks continue to agree on a new extension, doubts center on the viability of a permanent truce, especially because dozens of civilians, both Israelis and foreigners, continue to be kidnapped by terrorists and the arrival of humanitarian aid to Gaza remains urgent. .

The truce between Israel and Hamas, which came into force on November 24, was due to end on Thursday morning after a first two-day extension. The agreement that allowed a seventh day of truce was reached at the last minute, after the Palestinian group complied with delivering a list of at least 10 hostages who would be released that day.

The ceasefire collapsed on Friday morning, with Israel and Hamas blaming each other for the collapse of the fragile truce.

The internationalist Francisco Belaunde Matossian gives a positive assessment of the days of truce in the humanitarian aspect, but highlights that there is a certain degree of uncertainty as a result of these momentary pauses in the conflict. “What a large part of the international community is looking for is for this to be prolonged until it can eventually become a ceasefire, but the scenario in Israel is complex,” he tells El Comercio.

Permanent truce?

The Prime Minister of the Hebrew country, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been clear that he will not give up his goal of eliminating Hamas and that the end of the truce means the resumption of fighting in the south of the Palestinian enclave.

For this reason, Belaúnde considers that achieving a permanent ceasefire is very complicated, mainly because the Israelis want to put an end to Hamas and the pressure on Netanyahu is very high.

“Those who are putting the most pressure to resume the offensive are the most radical partners of Netanyahu’s government and the military who say that the favorable moment may be lost to continue the war and end its objectives,” says the expert.

At the same time, the families of the hostages have said since the beginning of the war that the most important thing is that the hostages return safely and that the government must negotiate with Hamas to achieve this.

“The pressure on the government, even with demonstrations, has been enormous since the beginning of the war. The United States and much of the international community have also pressed in this regard and largely continue to insist that the ceasefire continue. Netanyahu has enormous pressure on him,” adds Belaúnde.

As Israel’s main ally, the United States plays a crucial role. The head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, yesterday urged to extend the truce between Hamas and Israel.

“It is clear that we want this process to continue moving forward. We want an eighth day and more,” the official declared to the press in Tel Aviv, after meeting with the top leaders of Israel and the Palestinian Authority, in the occupied West Bank.

In addition, he called on Israel to create “safe” zones for civilians in the Gaza Strip in the event of a resumption of war.

Israel “must put in place plans that minimize the deaths of innocent Palestinians” and “clearly and precisely demarcate areas and places in southern and central Gaza where they can be safe and out of the line of fire,” Blinken added.

For Belaúnde, Netanyahu’s biggest challenge is dealing with opposing pressures. “Even more so considering that he knows that his own position is in question, he knows that when this is over his head is most likely going to roll.”

More uncertainty

Belaunde points out that the only certain thing now is that when the war resumes, the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip will worsen again, which could maximize the conflict.

“The situation in Gaza now is very serious, but it is going to be even worse and it is going to have consequences. So far the war has not spread, but if the humanitarian crisis worsens the conflict could grow, especially because to what is happening in Gaza we must add the situation in the West Bank, where tensions have increased,” he points out.

Three people were killed and eight wounded in an attack by two Hamas-affiliated Palestinians at a bus stop in west Jerusalem, according to Israeli police, adding that the attackers “were killed.”

Two Israeli soldiers were wounded in another attack at a checkpoint in the occupied West Bank, according to the army. The attacker was also “killed.”