How likely is it that the Supreme Court will ban Trump from running for office?

Among the thicket of court cases facing donald trump, the 2021 Capitol assault is the only one that could have consequences on his candidacy for the White House. For this reason, attention shifted this Thursday to the Supreme Court of the United States, which began to debate whether the former president should be prohibited from running in the November elections for the White House, in which he is the clear favorite to obtain the nomination. of the Republican Party.

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The nine judges at the headquarters of the highest US court heard arguments for more than 90 minutes to determine whether Trump’s expulsion from the Republican primaries in the state of Colorado is constitutional.

In the background of the case is the role that Trump adopted after his defeat in the 2020 elections, which culminated in the assault on the Capitol in Washington on January 6, 2021.

Trump reacted this Thursday by stating that there is “no case” against him to disqualify him and that it is “electoral interference by the Democrats.” Despite the confidence that he shows in coming out well, the case raises several questions related to the electoral period.

What is the case about?

In an unprecedented ruling, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump incited the insurrection and is therefore disqualified from running for president again. Therefore, he should not appear on the state primary election ballots on March 5, according to the ruling.

This Thursday, the Supreme Court began hearing former President Donald’s appeal to be able to run as a presidential candidate in November.

Supreme Court President John Roberts predicted that a decision ruling in Colorado could lead to attempts across the country to disqualify candidates.

The lawyer representing voters who questioned Trump’s eligibility, Jason Murray, denied that Colorado is going to interfere at the national level since “ultimately, it is this court (the Supreme Court) that is going to decide” and “resolve the issue for the nation.”

Was there an insurrection?

Although the question of whether there was an insurrection on January 6 was not the focus of the hearing, Murray insisted that the assault on the Capitol “was incited by a sitting president” who participated “in an insurrection,” so he is affected by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, the focus of the debate.

For his part, Trump’s lawyer, Jonathan Mitchell, stated that an insurrection requires “an organized and concerted effort to overthrow the government through violence” and that this did not occur. “It was not an insurrection,” the former president insisted this Thursday.

Under the same argument, Maine electoral authorities also expelled Trump from the primaries. In addition, several activists and organizations have filed similar lawsuits in at least 11 states and are waiting for the Supreme Court to rule.

It is the first time that Section 3 of the 14th Constitutional Amendment has been applied to a presidential candidate. In fact, this section was approved in 1868, after the Civil War, with the objective of preventing the southern rebels of the Confederacy who betrayed the Magna Carta from returning to power.

How likely is it that you will be barred from applying?

The judges of the Supreme Court, with a conservative majority and which includes three judges appointed by Trump, were skeptical about the efforts to exclude the former Republican president from the electoral ballot.

Both the most progressive and the most conservative justices suggested in their interventions discomfort with the idea of ​​individual states interpreting a candidate’s constitutional eligibility for national office.

“It will all come down to a handful of states that will decide the presidential elections” and this is “a pretty discouraging consequence,” Roberts said.

Eight of the nine justices suggested they were open to at least some of the arguments raised by Trump’s lawyer.

What’s coming now?

The Supreme Court will have to make a decision soon due to the tight electoral calendar. However, experts see it as unlikely that there will be a ruling before Super Tuesday on March 5, when 15 states, including Colorado, will hold their primaries.

The Supreme Court’s decision could alter the presidential elections in which the magnate is the great favorite to win the Republican nomination and fight again with President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate.