Governance, the great challenge for the new Milei government in Argentina

LOOK: The transition in Argentina begins without the scheduled meeting between Fernández and Milei

The liberal economist also promised throughout his campaign drastic reforms aimed mainly at reducing the size of the State and privatizing a series of companies, such as hydrocarbons, in a country with an annual inflation of 143% and poverty of 40%. .

During his victory speech, Milei assured that “there is no room for half measures” in the new Argentina that he promises to build. In a round of radio interviews that he gave between Sunday and yesterday, Milei repeated that he will seek to privatize both the oil company Yacimientos Petrolófilos Fiscales (YPF), in power of the State since 2011, and state media: Public Television, National Radio and the Télam news agency.

“YPF first has to be recomposed. Since Mr. (Axel) Kicillof decided to nationalize it, the deterioration that has been done to the company in terms of results so that it is worth less than when it was expropriated… Obviously the first thing to do is to rebuild it,” he considered, and specified .

– Necessary alliances –

But the task will be titanic if we consider that La Libertad Avanza has only 38 deputies in a chamber of 257 members; and with 7 senators out of a total of 72.

In addition, the October elections left 10 provinces in control of Together for Change (a coalition that has parties that supported Milei in the second round), 8 under the leadership of the Peronist Unión por la Patria and another 6 with governors from provincial parties.

Libertarians, meanwhile, had to settle for choosing “three mayors in towns with less than 2 thousand inhabitants“, highlights analyst Mariel Fornoni, director of the consulting firm Management & Fit, to the EFE agency.

With this panorama Milei will only have one way out: to negotiate and not always in a comfortable way.

“Although Milei has had 50% of the votes, his own vote is that 30% that was maintained from the PASO to the general elections. The rest are votes borrowed because she represented change but do not necessarily support all of her proposals. Therefore, her challenge will be to moderate herself without losing her identity.“, he comments to Trade Alexandra Morales, member of the “No Sin Mujeres” network of Political Scientists specialized in political communication.

To begin, both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate will have to agree on details with Together for Change, the center-right coalition led by former president Mauricio Macri and which included Patricia Bullrich as a candidate in this process.

This coalition has 94 congressmen and 21 senators, so not even the sum with that strength would give the libertarians the majority necessary to promote their ambitious agenda.

And as if that were not enough, Morales remembers that the support of the coalition was not total, especially because the Radical Civic Union was opposed to supporting the candidate who spent the first part of the campaign hurling insults towards said party and its leaders.

“Today we are facing a very fragmented scenario, even Together for Change was fragmented, so it remains to be seen what position each side takes after this recomposition, who will be the opposition and who will support. And we will also have to see how Peronism will work, whether as a united front or as factions within Congress.”says Morales.

“At least 35 deputies will be able to join Milei’s almost automatic support, but that is not enough and it will have to be negotiated with the radical opposition wing, although this type of majority will be recalculated in each discussion.”says the director of political analysis of the Legislative Directorate foundation, Leandro Domínguez.

Morales points out that the presence of former president Macri could end up moderating certain positions of Milei, although at the same time this change could lead him to lose ground among his followers who seek more radical changes.

“Milei has shown great difficulty in giving in on certain issues, but after his approach to Macri he may be able to find that balance. She has a big challenge ahead of her but it will depend on how she moderates her speech and finds common ground.“, Explain.

– Rethink the agenda –

During yesterday’s session, in addition, Milei’s team and that of outgoing president Alberto Fernández could not agree on the date or place to start the transition meetings.

Regarding his ambitious agenda, on Sunday the libertarian had announced in various interviews that he will seek to privatize YPF and sell Public Television, National Radio, as well as the official Télam news agency.

What Milei ruled out is that public education and health are going to be privatized, since they are areas that fall within provincial and not state jurisdiction. “That was part of the fear campaign.“, assured the elected ruler to Radio Continental.

“That generates much more tranquility in a group of his voters, without neglecting his most anti-Peronist voter to whom he told that he will eliminate the figure of the omnipresent State that has benefited a few. The more radical measures, such as privatizations, will be more difficult, which is why I see it as very complex to take these measures in the short and medium term. The social agenda will prevail over Milei’s political agenda. Citizens, before asking you to privatize YPF or the public media, will expect you to solve problems such as inflation, poverty or the negotiation of the foreign debt”says Morales.

It is worth remembering that Argentina is governed by a federal model, so each region applies its own constitutions, a factor that also involves a constant flow of negotiation between the national and regional governments.

“Governors can move closer or further away from Milei, which would somewhat limit their work. Let us also remember that Congress is made up of provincial deputies and senators; That is, they also respond to those provincial governments. Here the figure of the Minister of the Interior will be fundamental because he must be a person who can work together and reach agreements with the governors.“adds the political scientist.

In that sense, Morales trusts that the role played by Macri and his technical and political teams will be fundamental. “The PRO – Macrista wing of Together for Change – will be one of the big beneficiaries. It is too early to say what places they will occupy, although Milei already spoke about some ministries. But the determining factor is that the PRO has management experience because Macri was president for 4 years and head of government in the Federal Capital for 8 years. Milei should draw on the experience that each technical and political team of the PRO will add”, he comments.