From the fracture of the more to doubts for the registration of the favorite: how have the presidential candidacies in Bolivia remain?

In total, 10 organizations have registered in the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), although only nine are currently enabled for the elections. The tenth, the popular alliance of the president of the Senate, Andrónico Rodríguezis currently suspended with the TSE having until June 6 to decide whether to compete or not.

Enabled candidates

More fragmented

In the center of uncertainty is the fragmentation of the left, concentrated for decades in the Movement to Socialism (MAS) party, political platform chaired by Evo Morales almost three decades, and now in an internal war between the block that supports it and the ‘renovators’ that follow the current president, Luis Arce.

“In the orbit of the Masista electorate, the sector that has given the impulse to the governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce, We are seeing unlikely chaotic fractures to bordering on the electoral chacota”He said in conversation with Commerce Bolivian political analyst Ricardo Calla Ortega.

As explained by the expert, this gresca has led to the efforts of the left are divided into several candidates such as Eva Cup, mayor of El Alto, which is postulated for Moreno; the official of the ruling party, Eduardo del Castillo, and The current pointer in the surveys, Andrónico Rodriguez, president of the Senate and exprotiated of Morales who recently demariated from the former president.

However, this does not mean that it will have an easy path to the elections. This is because Rodríguez registered his presidential candidacy formally on May 19 under the umbrella of Popular Alliance, which houses the Revolutionary Socialist Party (PSR), the Autonomist Movement of Work and Hope (Mate) and the Third System Movement (MTS), this last target of several challenges that make their entry into the electoral contest in doubt.

“We are in the ridiculous situation that what we were going to be the most powerful candidacy of the MAS is rickety for now”Said Ricardo Calla Ortega.

For the specialist, This situation took place due to a very serious mistake of those who consider being the power behind the Popular Alliance, former Bolivian vice president Álvaro García Linerawho chose to register with the MTS to the binomial of Andrónico Rodríguez and Mariana Prado, his former Chief of Cabinet.

“It is not a simple opinion of mine. The manipulation that Álvaro García de Andronón and Mariana is doing has been passively clumsy, because everyone here in Bolivia knows who is behind his candidacy in search of the political power of the presidency from the shadow,” he said. Sample of that awkwardness was not to have urged his protected to accept the candidacy of political parties such as Morena de Eva Cup, the Solidarity Civic Unit (UCS) of the Mayor of Santa Cruz, Jhonny Fernández, and even that of the MAS official party itself.

“He had three acronyms to choose without legal problems, but, for wanting to monopolize everything, Álvaro García decided to play it for the MTS, controlled by two characters in the middle of a divorce,” he added. “Then it has gotten into a mess and we don’t know what will happen.”

For the political scientist, A solution to continue Andrónico Rodríguez’s candidacy would be to reach an agreement with other candidates such as Eva Cup or Jhonny Fernándezwho publicly has already offered him his acronym, although he considered that a treatment of this style will cost them “a good part of the parliamentary bench that had been projected to accompany Álvaro and Andrónico.”

Out of this, there seems to be no good options for the mass vote, with the official candidate Eduardo del Castillo hit by the tremendous impopularity of President Luis Arce, who as we remember retired from the electoral contest after the surveys gave him Only 1% of voting intention. Del Castillo, who was part of this administration as a minister of government, will not be able to avoid being painted with the same brush.

“Probably from the castle will receive a very sad percentage of the vote“Calla said.” I don’t think it’s going to exceed 3 to 4%, although as long as Andrononic is in the contest. “

The opposition

The disunity of the MAS opens wide possibilities for the opposition, although it has been fractured in some way, without agreeing to any candidacy to deal with the forces related to the ruling party.

However, Calla Ortega was able to point out some strong candidates such as those of businessman Samuel Doria Medina by Alianza Unit; The former president Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga of Alianza Libre and Manfred Reyes Villa, mayor of Cochabamba, by Súmate.

For the political scientist, the weakening of the MAS makes it quite difficult for the candidacies from this block to win the presidency in the first round and everything indicates that if there is a second round, these, including Andrónico Rodríguez, will be defeated.

While the expert was sure that the opposition will triumph in the second round, it is a little more difficult what candidate will finally take the presidency, making a parallel of the situation of his country with what happened in the last Argentine elections, where from the town opposition field the current Argentine president, Javier Milei.

“You never have to exclude elections and these are also marked by their campaigns, which are just beginning. Then, any candidate can make a severe mistake or have a strong success, show strong histrionic abilities or highlight in the image, “he considered.” It is a competition and the campaigns will have to be seen, but the one that is best outlined is now Samuel Doria Medina. “