Evo Morales faces the trial that could definitively bury his political career: this is what is known

The process is for his alleged relationship with a minor with whom he supposedly had a daughter when he was president.

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The trial took place on Monday in the Departmental Court of Justice of Tarija. However, Morales He did not appear and was declared in default. In addition, Judge Rosmery Ruiz said that the validity of the order of apprehension and roots against the former president.

The former president’s lawyers had announced that he will not attend the trial “because he was not notified following the procedures.”

They also assured that the case was already treated and resolved in 2020, so the former president should not be prosecuted again. Likewise, they stated that “there is no victim” and that the accusation against them has a “political” purpose.

From October 2024, Evo Morales remains a refugee in the Tropics of Cochabamba, his political and union stronghold. At the time, the police could not execute an arrest warrant against him because his followers blocked roads for 24 days to prevent the agents from entering.

Wilfredo Chavezone of the defense attorneys Moralessaid last week that the start of the trial responds to “a political persecution that arises at a time when there are deplorable conditions in the country, especially at an economic level, and conflicts in the streets.” He added that they seek to “divert attention” from the union protests in recent weeks against the government of the President Rodrigo Paz.

The case against Evo Morales

The Prosecutor’s Office accuses Morales of having had a relationship with a minor (identified as Cindy Saraí VP) in 2015, when she was 15 years oldand product of which A daughter was supposedly born in 2016 while he was president.

According to the Prosecutor’s Office, the environment of the then president would have facilitated the link through the call Presidential Youth Guard, made up of young people related to the ruling party and politically linked to the MAS.

According to the official discourse of the time, the Presidential Youth Guard had symbolic and political functions: accompanying public events of the president, participating in mobilizations, reinforcing protocol activities and promoting the political training of young MAS militants. Its members used to appear at official events, receptions and social activities. Morales dressed in military-like uniforms.

Besides, Prosecutors claim to have gathered more than 170 pieces of evidence to support the accusation against Morales.

Yeah Evo Morales is found guilty of the crime of aggravated human trafficking, could face a sentence of between 15 and 20 years in prison, as established in article 281 bis of the Bolivian Penal Code when the victim is a minor.

In addition to the accusation of aggravated trafficking, possible crimes linked to statutory rape were also mentioned at different stages of the investigation, although the current trial is focused on the case of aggravated human trafficking.

What did he say and where is the alleged victim?

The court case against Evo Morales It was not initiated by a direct complaint from the alleged victim, but rather was driven by the Departmental Prosecutor’s Office of Tarija in September 2024, after the alleged existence of a relationship between the former president and a teenager was publicly known when he was in power.

The first revelations emerged in 2020, during the transitional government of Jeanine Áñez, when the then Government Minister Arturo Murillo He publicly denounced that Morales had had a relationship with a minor. The authority presented documents, including a birth certificate of a daughter attributed to the former president. Based on this, the Prosecutor’s Office opened an investigation for alleged crimes linked to the rape.

Initially, The investigation faced difficulties because the minor and her family publicly denied having been victims of any crime.. In statements released in Bolivia, the young woman maintained that she had a “consensual” relationship with Morales and denounced political pressures surrounding the case.

With the passage of time, The Prosecutor’s Office reformulated the investigation under the crime of aggravated human trafficking. He argued that, even if there was consent, Bolivian law considers it aggravating that the alleged victim was a minor and that there had been an alleged recruitment mechanism through the so-called Presidential Youth Guard.

In the process it was also included as co-accused the mother of the young woman, under the hypothesis that it would have facilitated the relationship with Morales.

In 2025, the alleged victim, her mother, and the daughter born from that relationship obtained refuge in Argentinaaccording to Bolivian authorities.

“The political decline of Evo Morales is already irreversible”

The Bolivian political analyst Ricardo Calla Ortega considered that the political weight of Evo Morales is going through one of its lowest moments since leaving power in 2019. Although it still retains the capacity for union mobilization in specific regions of the country, it maintained that its electoral influence is deeply deteriorated and that his political decline “is already irreversible.”

“Surely politically it already has a very diminished electoral presence. I don’t think its support will go beyond 7% to 10%, maybe 12% in the best of cases,” Calla Ortega stated to The Commerce. In his opinion, Morales has been “very diminished” and practically excluded from Bolivian political influence.

However, the analyst warned that the electoral weakening does not mean the disappearance of its territorial and union power. As explained, the former president still maintains influence over peasant and coca growing organizations based mainly in Cochabamba, Oruro and La Paz, and especially in the region of Chaparehistorical bastion of Evism.

“Evo Morales retains the capacity to mobilize on the routes and streets of Bolivia through peasant union networks”he pointed out. Calla related Evism to the blockades that currently affect the roads between La Paz, Oruro and Cochabamba, although He clarified that Morales would not be the only actor behind the social upheaval.

Calla Ortega assured that interests linked to drug trafficking, smuggling and illegal mining also operate behind the protests, sectors that – according to her – seek to weaken the government of President Rodrigo Paz. “There is a dynamic of multiple actors against the government and Evo Morales is just one of them. I wouldn’t say he is the most important,” held.

Regarding the oral trial, the analyst considered that The judicial scenario further aggravates the political situation of the former president. He remembered that Morales was declared in default after failing to appear at the hearing and warned that Now he could be arrested at any time.

“It seems that Evo Morales is very complicated and desperate, even trying to generate tension mainly in Cochabamba to counteract this judicial attack”he stated.

For Calla Ortega, Morales’ absence at the beginning of the trial also represents a serious political and legal error. “Not having appeared is a very serious problem. It almost seems like a declaration of guilt because you are omitting the legal function of defending yourself and presenting exculpatory evidence,” said.

The analyst also maintained that The public image of the former president has suffered a severe deterioration in Bolivia due to allegations related to child abuse. As he explained, the majority of The population rejects the narrative of political persecution promoted by Morales’ defense.

“The vast majority of the population thinks that Evo Morales is guilty. Surveys show that between 80% and 90% of Bolivians consider that he is responsible for pedophilia, statutory rape or child abuse”he stated.

Despite this, he pointed out that The government of Rodrigo Paz has avoided showing itself as the promoter of political persecution against Morales and has chosen to keep its distance from the judicial process. “The government has let the justice system advance with its own rhythms and procedures,” he explained.

Still, considereither that the outlook for the coca leader is increasingly adverse. “His political wear and tear is very profound. Evo Morales still retains union influence, but he no longer has the capacity to organize the national scene as before”he concluded.